EurAnalysis | Page 3094 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #61,861
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:53am Nov 30, 2012 2:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Just let me know when...
Signed, Penguin

Attachment

Wow it's gonna be a huuuuge sell off
  • #61,862
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:55am Nov 30, 2012 2:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
Not entirely true. It all depends who your broker is and how much price filtering they do.
The Forex volume is actually tick volume because Forex is not exchange traded. Therefore your volume indicator ticks up with every price change whether positive or negative. When your broker allows all price updates from their Interbank feed without filtering it, you get a true representation of the market volume. However, if your broker is a bucket shop, then the volume will be filtered to suit your broker's pocket.
I use IB I know there ticks are unfiltered it one of the main reasons there charting sucks they ticks all over the place, but I still don't trust any volume on spot fx. If I want to look at volume I use futures charts & feed.
It works till it doesn't
  • #61,863
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:55am Nov 30, 2012 2:55am


always great to hear sophisticated opinions. You clearly understand the underlying environment in the U.S. as well as having great knowledge on U.S. history.



Quoting Gofer Pips
Lumesh in black

Gofer Pips in blue

how's that a case in point ? Austerity kills growth, just like i said, no matter WHEN you engage in it. If you are referring to the situation of "no austerity equals prosperity" in the eurozone then that's debatable...and a whole different story.

[color="Blue"]You are talking in a circle. If debt exists, and it needs to be paid back, then there are only 3 roads out of debt. 1. Print/borrow money to cover deficits in revenues to cover spending, 2. Cut spending enough...
  • #61,864
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:01am Nov 30, 2012 3:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
Not entirely true. It all depends who your broker is and how much price filtering they do.
The Forex volume is actually tick volume because Forex is not exchange traded. Therefore your volume indicator ticks up with every price change whether positive or negative. When your broker allows all price updates from their Interbank feed without filtering it, you get a true representation of the market volume. However, if your broker is a bucket shop, then the volume will be filtered to suit your broker's pocket.
Does the ECN broker show better volume than the market maker?
  • #61,865
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:06am Nov 30, 2012 3:06am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I'm curious if anybody can help me figure out:

1) How to tell when Big Money or "Smart Money" is in play?

Define smart money.

Are you talking about hedge funds with directional bias and large accounts and/or market makers ?

Fundamentally biased big money trade without stops and don't care of market moving several hundred pips against them as long as the fundamental situation doesn't change. They do pay attention to technicals, mostly on daily timeframe S/R, 50% fib and trendlines.

Quoting 100PipsADay
2) How can one tell if volume is thin in the FOREX market?
[/b]

I've never understood how people know when volume is thin when it comes to trading FOREX...

Thank you in advance.
Which volume are you talking about ?

Market order volume or limit order volume ?

If market is moving very little throughout the day then the market order volume is thin and not challenging the market maker limit order volume.

However, limit order volume can also be thin, like pre news releases, that has an opposite effect and market can get very volatile cause demanded volume is higher than offered volume.
  • #61,866
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:10am Nov 30, 2012 3:10am
nice to see an efficient market:

German retail sales down, french consumer spending down, italian monthly unemployment down and euro up....

I wonder how much are there stops that get triggered once the market CLOSES above 1.3...many have shouted this type of strategy and perhaps many will go long on the 1.3. I just wonder if the market needs that much exposure to get a catalytical effect to the downside...
  • #61,867
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:28am Nov 30, 2012 3:28am
Quoting ohenry
It appears the bear may be finally stirring from hibernation...confirmation in 30 (for me that is)...
Taken the short...anticipating the 1st hurdle @ 2975...once through aggressively onto 42..if not..cold crow 4 dinner @ 3083..GL
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #61,868
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:30am Nov 30, 2012 3:30am
everyone here shorting like looneys. Seems clear whats about to happen...
  • #61,869
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:31am Nov 30, 2012 3:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
Not entirely true. It all depends who your broker is and how much price filtering they do.
The Forex volume is actually tick volume because Forex is not exchange traded. Therefore your volume indicator ticks up with every price change whether positive or negative. When your broker allows all price updates from their Interbank feed without filtering it, you get a true representation of the market volume. However, if your broker is a bucket shop, then the volume will be filtered to suit your broker's pocket.

exactly.
  • #61,870
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:31am Nov 30, 2012 3:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
Just let me know when...
Signed, Penguin

Attachment
  • #61,871
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:35am Nov 30, 2012 3:35am
Quoting Kilgore T
everyone here shorting like looneys. Seems clear whats about to happen...

easy with the conspiracy.

everyone is long also
  • #61,872
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:01am Nov 30, 2012 5:01am
Waiting for movement below 2990 to confirm bears. Later will look at 2970/66
69
  • #61,873
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:05am Nov 30, 2012 5:05am
does anybody have the most recent forecasts for greece growth from the eurogroup or the likes at hand (charted) that is expected to get the desired debt to gdp ratio ?

Greece keeps missing again, retail sales over -10% now.
  • #61,874
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:12am Nov 30, 2012 5:12am
No major usd news this session, so guess it may just be technical play... perhaps down or consolidation.
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #61,875
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:19am Nov 30, 2012 5:19am
Quoting tony_dtrader
No major usd news this session, so guess it may just be technical play... perhaps down or consolidation.
If 3006/11 gives, then 3020 and after that - wild flatlands..
Dont forget end of the month flows, and these can mess up all intraday techs..
..and regarding the USD news - waiting for US to wake up first)
69
  • #61,876
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:37am Nov 30, 2012 5:37am
Quoting 100PipsADay
EUR/USD Bears seem to be forgetting about the Fed's meeting come December 12 and will more than likely be very disappointed once the Fed decides to end Operation Twist and replace it with something even more aggressive.

Even if Congress reaches a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, it’s very likely the compromise will involve some sort of tax hikes. This will slow down the economy, and the Fed doesn’t want to add to the problems by sending a signal to the market it's not going to print more money.

That’s why it’s very likely the Fed will replace...
This is exactly why the Federal Reserve Board needs to be abolished and control of currency back to Congress.

Think about it; If you were a private banker, and you had inside knowledge of intents and motives, as well as control of the valuation of a country's monetary system, would you not then be able to manipulate the currency to the advantage of yourself and your friends?

Who profits from this manipulation? Grandma and Grandpa with their CDs and or passbook savings? The middle class homeowner with the majority of their net worth tied up in unrealized capital gains in their homes?Hardly.

These "friends" can corrupt the free market for profit, as they did with the bursting of the housing bubble which they helped create.

Remember it is a zero sum game, and the market controllers profit both ways, one through interest rates, and secondly through valuation of assets, and at the expense of those with less wealth.Profit they did in wiping out 20 years of American wealth accumulation.

For this game to work, the people have to play victim instead of from a position of informed empowerment. There are only 2 choices in which to align yourself:

1. Play their game by their rules and thereby relinquish your power and wealth

2. Play outside their rules which they have made to game the system and steal your wealth, and play by your own set of rules. Deny the banks that which they desire, your money so that they may lever it, profit from it, and return you the scraps that remain, and smile at you as if they have done you a favor.
There are 2 choices....which do you choose?
Attached Image
  • #61,877
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:43am Nov 30, 2012 5:43am
Sorry just a spot view on the AUDUSD, I see a descending flag and consolidation forming a triangle within it, will the PA drop at NY open ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.PNG Size: 30 KB
  • #61,878
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:56am Nov 30, 2012 5:56am
Quoting Gofer Pips
This is exactly why the Federal Reserve Board needs to be abolished and control of currency back to Congress.

Think about it; If you were a private banker, and you had inside knowledge of intents and motives, as well as control of the valuation of a country's monetary system, would you not then be able to manipulate the currency to the advantage of yourself and your friends?

what ? Give the power to Congress ? And in this way you'll have less manipulation ? Hardly. I think manipulation, frauds and inside trading will get worse.
  • #61,879
  • Nov 30, 2012 6:10am Nov 30, 2012 6:10am
two possible scenarios...but the upward sloping trendline will break...IMO


PS. pound eyes 1.6085..lets see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU1.png Size: 16 KB
  • #61,880
  • Nov 30, 2012 6:33am Nov 30, 2012 6:33am
Quoting lumesh
what ? Give the power to Congress ? And in this way you'll have less manipulation ? Hardly. I think manipulation, frauds and inside trading will get worse.
Uh......by Constitution, it's their fuggin job! Read Article 1 Section 8

But you are correct in the assumption that there can be manipulation if Congress did their job, however the people have the power to vote the bastards out, but with the Federal Reserve Board, those are appointments by politicians without the accountability to the ballot box. Which would you have?
17 traders viewing now