EurAnalysis

Today - shorts are a better option - An sl around 3042 and above targeting 2920.. from 2995 .. and once price action crosses 2940.. sl can be moved some where near 2991 to 297

Price has moved higher 14 out of the past 16 days and shorts have been "the way to go." Why will today's PA tell us a different story then the past 3 weeks? Just curious...

What is the reason for your entry?

Hi All,
jumping in here for the first time despite a long experience in fx
hope this is the right thread and please excuse my jargon: prices are given with the last digit (pip level)

<< EURUSD: Momentum seems to be dissipating on most time frames, yet (4H+) may try and push higher, (D+) being more hesitant. Unfortunately breakout energy is not visible on the current pattern at this point, so it is difficult to predict whether the Euro will keep to current narrow mid-range above 294 (halfway point). Fast Kase as so often come to the rescue in this environment, but can only provide fairly short term information that is not quite in line with a daily report. >>

Recommendation:
- use Kase to pick swing on 300, either non-directional (OCO stop orders) or for another round like yesterday i.e. first down for 30p ?
- longer time frames will on the contrary keep pushing, breaking 300 decisively ?

Closed out all E/J shorts for a loss. Back to the drawing board...

when euro/usd and gbp/usd will take downtrend? any idea? i have few trades in loss

ECB’s Draghi: Crisis Isn’t Over Yet

By Pete Jackson || November 30, 2012 at 07:28 GMT

Expects Eurozone recovery to come in 2nd half of 2013
Welcomes Eurogroup accord of Nov 27, very statisfied with accord
Shows Greece will remain in the Euro
ECB will do what ever it takes to keep euro stable
Banks are suffering from state of public finances
Unified supervision must apply to all banks to avoid banking sector fragmentation

I just opened fresh E/U short at 1.3024 Stop on daily close above 1.3050

i want it to go down and down =/

Your patience will be rewarded.

EUR/USD Bears seem to be forgetting about the Fed's meeting come December 12 and will more than likely be very disappointed once the Fed decides to end Operation Twist and replace it with something even more aggressive.

Even if Congress reaches a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, it’s very likely the compromise will involve some sort of tax hikes. This will slow down the economy, and the Fed doesn’t want to add to the problems by sending a signal to the market it's not going to print more money.

That’s why it’s very likely the Fed will replace the Twist program with purchases of Treasuries. In fact, some members of the Fed have already expressed that opinion.

John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, for example, recently said he favors more money-printing. According to him, the Fed’s balance sheet hasn't grown "anywhere near" the kind of limits that might impede the Fed from doing more QE.

What to Expect on December 12

Besides Operation Twist, the Fed has also been buying $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities. Although that’s the amount it authorized in its last meeting, the Fed made clear this quantitative easing is both open-ended and flexible. Here’s what the Fed said:

"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.”

In other words, the Fed has the flexibility to increase the size of its asset purchases anytime it wants by any amount it deems appropriate. That’s why financial analysts call that last round of money-printing “QE infinity.”

With Operation Twist expiring soon, the Fed will have to announce what it will do next. My guess is the Fed will continue to buy $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed bonds. But it will also start buying at least $45 billion a month of Treasury bonds. If this happens, the Fed will be printing $85 billion every single month.

Since the Fed already holds $2.873 trillion in its balance sheet, $85 billion doesn’t sound like much. But let’s not forget this is a monthly amount.

If it does that for six months, the Fed will add about $500 billion to its balance sheet. And if it does it for all of 2013, it will add a little more than $1 trillion. To put that in perspective, QE II consisted of $600 billion in Treasury purchases. So if the Fed does what I expect, this new round of money-printing could easily be as big as QE II.

In my opinion the "Fiscal Cliff" drama being played out on TV will have less impact then the Fed's decision to print more money which is actually a REAL problem. More Printing = US Dollar Bearish

Today, Target BULLISH for EURO @ Price 1.3082 :nerd:

Bad News for German & French but Price still go UPWARD...

I'm curious if anybody can help me figure out:

1) How to tell when Big Money or "Smart Money" is in play?

2) How can one tell if volume is thin in the FOREX market?


I've never understood how people know when volume is thin when it comes to trading FOREX...

Thank you in advance.

Wider spreads = thin markets

Big money & smart money is always in play its a matter of at what levels at what size there playing. Good luck trying to get that exact info, best u can do is follow order boards that certain sites offer, forexlive is good for that. Bloomberg terminal also has order board info.

Just look at your volume indicator. When an exaggerated move is made on a low volume bar, it's dumb money... a small move on a high volume bar, it's smart money.

Schaeuble: First Successes Seen In Greece Rescue

By Gerry Davies || November 30, 2012 at 08:18 GMT

Still a long way to go for Greece
Greece crisis can’t be resolved in a ‘few years’
Greece govt is making big effort for reforms

Well I'm awake and my pending got triggered in at 17 here.

Volume bars on your forex broker are only yours brokers volume its not the whole market.

It appears the bear may be finally stirring from hibernation...confirmation in 30 (for me that is)...

Not entirely true. It all depends who your broker is and how much price filtering they do.
The Forex volume is actually tick volume because Forex is not exchange traded. Therefore your volume indicator ticks up with every price change whether positive or negative. When your broker allows all price updates from their Interbank feed without filtering it, you get a true representation of the market volume. However, if your broker is a bucket shop, then the volume will be filtered to suit your broker's pocket.

Just let me know when...
Signed, Penguin