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  • #61,821
  • Nov 29, 2012 2:10pm Nov 29, 2012 2:10pm
Took a few short positions earlier on EUR/JPY @ 106.613, 106.332, and 106.417.

106.60 has been an excellent area of Support / Resistance in the past when looking at the weekly charts.

Also, E/J had a nice run up last week but hasn't done much in the way of consolidating / profit taking which tells me there is more room to the downside before resuming its next leg up.

Dropping down to the D1 chart we can see that 104.55 provided good resistance on Oct. 22nd and Oct. 23rd. 104.55 also happens to be the 38.2 fib retracement from the Daily swing low of 100.317 on Nov. 13 and the Daily swing high of 107.12 on Nov. 26.

Target: 104.60


1st Chart - Weekly
2nd Chart - Daily
3rd Chart - 4 Hour
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY - Weekly.jpg Size: 134 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY - Daily.jpg Size: 119 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY - H4.jpg Size: 130 KB
  • #61,822
  • Nov 29, 2012 2:15pm Nov 29, 2012 2:15pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
I hope I have understood your reply correctly, as it seemed fragmented to my simple mind.
you sure are educated/experienced in the said field ...let me point out to some of the things where you might have misunderstood.


Quoting Gofer Pips
It most certainly does matter WHEN you cut spending.....case in point Eurozone austerity measures. Game over on that one!
how's that a case in point ? Austerity kills growth, just like i said, no matter WHEN you engage in it. If you are referring to the situation of "no austerity equals prosperity" in the eurozone then that's debatable...and a whole different story.



Quoting Gofer Pips
Your premise that US economy is built on government spending is ...how shall I say it....Horse pucky! Reason being would be that you do not think there are free capitalistic markets in US. I have my own business and It's success does not have one iota of dependency on government spending as I compete in the free market. However, there are regulations to protect the consumer or end-user of my products.
I might have gone overboard with that statement. Of course, private businesses compete in the free market and most of which have little to nothing to do with goverment spending.

What i meant was that when you run a trillion a year deficit then it's clear that gov spending has smth quite significant to do in the country's GDP (in my opinion, nothing to back that up). Balance the budget and you have a shitload of unemployed people, that reduces significantly the demand for products (for your products perhaps, illustratively speaking) and services not to mention the effect on confidence and financial markets. U.S. have GROWN to price in that trillion a deficit a year. Like it's a standard...a normality.

How many years have the U.S. lived beyond it's means ? Whether a boom or a recession the debt keeps ticking up. The standard of living in the U.S. is at least partly (if not more) driven by the aritificial demand the U.S. goverment creates. That's what i mean't by gov spending economy. Don't take it literally .


Quoting Gofer Pips
We reach 4% growth through creating a business climate through temporary government spending to put people back to work, thereby creating revenues for the treasury, and you can not do this without a large amount of capital after an economic collapse. IMO, increased government spending to achieve this through programs to improve infrastructure, education or re-education of the workforce, and elimination of government favoritism.
See, you're trapping yourself into the deadly circle: "Let's just temporarily spend to get the economy going"...It's not that easy. That spending needs to be stopped, paid back with interest. All of this is going to have an effect. If you generate GDP through all the infra, education etc spending (which we've always done anyway) then how you gonna pay back all that when the spending is cut off. Also, by creating this convenient business climate through gov spending you give out false signals of business survival (if i'm explaining myself correctly) plus it generates this bad mindset in people where they think that govenment should always offer a helping hand.


Quoting Gofer Pips
Booming growth at a paltry( Look at growth in China) 3.5 -4% would not create heated inflation with proper monetary policy.
Don't compare U.S. with China. One's growth comes at the expense of someone else. Have labor cost and working hours the same or cheaper in U.S. as in China and eventually your GDP figures will reflect that. Just don't forget what happens to your standard of living.

Quoting Gofer Pips
The aftermath of the growth you have misrepresented......leveraged bets and bubbles are created through the greed of those participating in the free market seeking more and more yield.
and when do you think greed hits the fan ? Boom IS greed. Greed is an inevidable outcome of a growing economy. Everybody wants a piece of the action when money is lying around. We can make another connection: Money IS greed.

And we need money to demand, we need money to expand. Banks get more and more greedy to lend out giving less and less shite about the real value of collateral etc. etc. Everybody is greedy. Greed is a part of human nature. Heck, if it weren't we wouldn't see growth much beyond 2%.

Quoting Gofer Pips
When the bubble bursts....let the chips fall where they may.

NO government intervention.

It is the job of the government to enact laws and regulations to prevent ANY industry or business from being in the position to threaten the viability of the economy based on decisions made in the private sector. And, the government must remain sidelined when said private sector businesses fail.

The days of privatizing profits and socializing debt have to come to an end.
I agree.
  • #61,823
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:25pm Nov 29, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
It's G-O-F-E-R
Just checking to see if you were awake
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #61,824
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:32pm Nov 29, 2012 6:32pm
Lumesh in black

Gofer Pips in blue

how's that a case in point ? Austerity kills growth, just like i said, no matter WHEN you engage in it. If you are referring to the situation of "no austerity equals prosperity" in the eurozone then that's debatable...and a whole different story.

You are talking in a circle. If debt exists, and it needs to be paid back, then there are only 3 roads out of debt. 1. Print/borrow money to cover deficits in revenues to cover spending, 2. Cut spending enough to actually pay said debt w/interest back to creditors, or 3. Default

I will repeat, austere measures in times of economic downturns lead to depressing economy further and can also create a deflationary spiral as much as excessive printing of currency without increase of GDP will cause hyperinflation.



What i meant was that when you run a trillion a year deficit then it's clear that gov spending has smth quite significant to do in the country's GDP (in my opinion, nothing to back that up). Balance the budget and you have a shitload of unemployed people, that reduces significantly the demand for products (for your products perhaps, illustratively speaking) and services not to mention the effect on confidence and financial markets. U.S. have GROWN to price in that trillion a deficit a year. Like it's a standard...a normality.

Yes of course government spending has something to do with GDP, public servant compensation, military spending on weaponry/equipment and government investment of which infrastructure spending and education of the workforce would be investment.

The GDP took a hit on the decreased consumption of the American people when the shit hit the fan due to uncertainty. Well if no one is buying goods and services then GDP is further crippled by lower demand for goods and services. This effects employment. A business will not continue to hire or employ if a profit cannot be made, so business starts to lay off or freeze hiring and tries to increase the productivity of a smaller workforce, or through innovation, automates many processes or outsources to a lower cost and/or quality provider of goods and services it provides for consumption of the people.( I suggest this was going on for years to the detriment of domestic manufacturing and to increase yield on profits at the expense of employment) This part of GDP as well as decreased private investment in housing and decreased business investment in plant and equipment caused the biggest hit to GDP. Companies that received capital from stock purchases but chose not to expend it on purchasing plant or equipment but instead left money on balance sheet again due to uncertainty, also hurt the GDP.The irony was the employed were feeding the monster through their retirement plans by buying mutual funds, stocks for yield and at a deferred tax liability on profits. Who profited from this? The financial sector of the economy, they were cut loose when the Glass-Steagall Act was continually watered down and effectively repealed, especially under President Clinton's administration that allowed commercial banks to be affiliated with security firms allowing for the greed of which I speak. This allowed the banksters to gamble with their depositors funds thereby creating all the bubbles of which you speak. IMHO, The Federal Reserve Act should be repealed. Let the lazy bastards in Congress do the job as outlined in Article 1 Section 8 of the US Constitution. This may be a blessing as economists would displace many of the sleazy lawyers that now pontificate in the halls of Congress, and hopefully currency decisions will be made as originally designed.
Heed the warning of Thomas Jefferson,
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

or the warning of President Abraham Lincoln,
"Banking was conceived in iniquity, and born in sin. Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. Take this great power away from them, and all great fortunes like mine will disappear. And, they ought to disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to continue to be the slaves of the bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money, and control credit."

How many years have the U.S. lived beyond it's means ? Whether a boom or a recession the debt keeps ticking up. The standard of living in the U.S. is at least partly (if not more) driven by the aritificial demand the U.S. goverment creates. That's what i mean't by gov spending economy. Don't take it literally .
First of all, which nations on earth have no debt? The ones with the most debt are either the most developed, or in the process of becoming one. So I suppose allcountries live beyond their means.
Again, the government does not create demand, in a free market economy businesses and individuals create demand.In the US,the government tries to stay out of the economy as much as possible, much more so than in many European nations.However, the government does need to regulate the economy to insure competition, protect society from business creating harm, and as stated above, stabilize the economy through taxes and interest rates....this is capitalism as we know it.




See, you're trapping yourself into the deadly circle: "Let's just temporarily spend to get the economy going"...It's not that easy. That spending needs to be stopped, paid back with interest. All of this is going to have an effect. If you generate GDP through all the infra, education etc spending (which we've always done anyway) then how you gonna pay back all that when the spending is cut off. Also, by creating this convenient business climate through gov spending you give out false signals of business survival (if i'm explaining myself correctly) plus it generates this bad mindset in people where they think that govenment should always offer a helping hand.

Again, it is the job of the Government in the US to stabilize the economy in good times and bad times,so if you want to call that a " helping hand", I'll give you that. Unfortunately that job has been delegated to the Federal Reserve Board. So, your statements on "bad mindsets" and "false signals" is nothing more than an opinion.

This is not a "deadly circle".
If GDP is generated throughinvestment, which you characterize only as spending, jobs are created through infrastructure improvement( again see China), creating tax revenues generated from the people working in the businesses that are performing the work, creating demand for goods and services in the economy. The climate for innovation and technology improvement occurs with the education of the populace. Both of these are a circle alright, they create health in the economy when it is sick. As financial system is designed now debt is moneywithout debt what need is there for money other than portability of comparative value when bartering one good or service for another.


Don't compare U.S. with China. One's growth comes at the expense of someone else. Have labor cost and working hours the same or cheaper in U.S. as in China and eventually your GDP figures will reflect that. Just don't forget what happens to your standard of living.

It is a perfect comparison, China is suffering the growing pains that US suffered at dawn of the Industrial Revolution. Once the people of China taste a little bit of the good comforts of life, they will demand more. With that demand, the government will only be able to maintain its socialist-oriented market economy as long as the majority of the people allow themselves to be indentured servants to the state. Capitalism will eventually prevail, and under your presumption it has to as greed is the prevalent driving force of humanity. How can that be? We have Philanthropy, and people choosing to be policemen, nurses, teachers, laborers. Hell if greed drove man, we'd all be bankers!


Respectfully,
Gofer
  • #61,825
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:51pm Nov 29, 2012 7:51pm
Looks like EUR/JPY is moving up again...

Damn it! It has to come down but it looks like it might make new highs before it makes it retrace.

Should have held my longs...
  • #61,826
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:55pm Nov 29, 2012 7:55pm
I hope youre long eur/yen still ken. i just got long eur/yen and short usd/jpy about 20 ticks after the initial move started
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #61,827
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:03pm Nov 29, 2012 8:03pm
This is really frustrating, this week's gains are basically gone now with my EUR/JPY shorts that I opened up earlier today. The shitty thing is I was long AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, and EUR/JPY earlier today but I thought we would see some sort of retrace by now...

Due to the fact that JPY pairs are literally going straight up when it retraces it will fall HARD. Problem is WHEN?
  • #61,828
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:08pm Nov 29, 2012 8:08pm
Quoting redteamgo
I hope youre long eur/yen still ken. i just got long eur/yen and short usd/jpy about 20 ticks after the initial move started
I do and closed almost 3/4 at 107.xx then have the chance to scale in again at 105.xx.

I might close some of them later and let the positions from 100.xx - 103.xx run. Will add more on retrace and see how it goes.

USD/JPY already made it's low at 81.70 when BIS was selling.
  • #61,829
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:09pm Nov 29, 2012 8:09pm
Quoting Ken A
I do and closed almost 3/4 at 107.xx then have the chance to scale in again at 105.xx.

I might close some of them later and let the positions from 100.xx - 103.xx run. Will add more on retrace and see how it goes.

USD/JPY already made it's low at 81.70 when BIS was selling.
futures are inverse of spot yen. short futures = long cash fx
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #61,830
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:13pm Nov 29, 2012 8:13pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
This is really frustrating, this week's gains are basically gone now with my EUR/JPY shorts that I opened up earlier today. The shitty thing is I was long AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, and EUR/JPY earlier today but I thought we would see some sort of retrace by now...

Due to the fact that JPY pairs are literally going straight up when it retraces it will fall HARD. Problem is WHEN?
Not so soon I guess because money is coming out of hiding from YEN. Means YEN being shorted into risk assets. Probably stay away from short during Risk-On. Too risky with the facts BOJ will keep easing until inflation target reached and markets are swayed from Fiscal Cliff one way or another.
  • #61,831
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:26pm Nov 29, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting redteamgo
futures are inverse of spot yen. short futures = long cash fx
Gotcha.
  • #61,832
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:29pm Nov 29, 2012 8:29pm
U/J might take out some stops above 82.30 but will never know after that.
  • #61,833
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:29pm Nov 29, 2012 8:29pm
Quoting Ken A
Gotcha.
yeah. i dont know why its flipped. a standardized quote method would certainly be nice. 1 yen = 0.012123 cents

i find this flight from the yen very interesting. maybe this is what the USD will look like in 5 years
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #61,834
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:33pm Nov 29, 2012 8:33pm
The cycle repeated again:

Short AUD/NZD - Long EURO - Short YEN = Dollar bearish.
  • #61,835
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:36pm Nov 29, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting redteamgo
yeah. i dont know why its flipped. a standardized quote method would certainly be nice. 1 yen = 0.012123 cents

i find this flight from the yen very interesting. maybe this is what the USD will look like in 5 years
Can't go wrong stick to shorting YEN for the whole month till end of year.

EUR/USD is too tiring and only few pips that's if lucky didn't get chopped.
  • #61,836
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:49pm Nov 29, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting Ken A
Can't go wrong stick to shorting YEN for the whole month till end of year.

EUR/USD is too tiring and only few pips that's if lucky didn't get chopped.
if i can build a jpy position from a multi week move into year end, i may resume going to church.

eurusd is heading right back to test 3020 highs and i want nothing to do with it
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #61,837
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:56pm Nov 29, 2012 8:56pm
Quoting redteamgo
if i can build a jpy position from a multi week move into year end, i may resume going to church.

eurusd is heading right back to test 3020 highs and i want nothing to do with it
For that you might need Japanese God Shinto.
  • #61,838
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:12pm Nov 29, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting Ken A
Can't go wrong stick to shorting YEN for the whole month till end of year.

EUR/USD is too tiring and only few pips that's if lucky didn't get chopped.
Ken,

You don't see any type of retrace in USD/JPY or other JPY cross pairs for the next month?
  • #61,839
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:29pm Nov 29, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Ken,

You don't see any type of retrace in USD/JPY or other JPY cross pairs for the next month?
The way I see it really depends on the Fiscal Cliff.

The retrace will happen when large funds are looking for quick bucks by moving around AUD-EUR-USD-YEN. Only large funds are capable to attract U/J to 82.30 and few stops above as we just seen.

For YEN crosses, it's safe to assume correlated to major pairs. But if there's buyer large enough for EUR/JPY, it should retrace too. Problem is we don't know when and by who before the facts. I don't expect short covering because it just made new highs and we just saw 105.29 this week.

I stick to BUY on dips only.
  • #61,840
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:35pm Nov 29, 2012 10:35pm

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