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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #61,801
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:13am Nov 29, 2012 9:13am
Quoting Gofer Pips
How are you Ken? Long?

Seriously, I hope all is well with your longs to 2.00000
Well, it depends who is with me. Sometimes can get very short
  • #61,802
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:18am Nov 29, 2012 9:18am
Quoting Ken A
Well, it depends who is with me. Sometimes can get very short
Put on a sweater and another log on fire!
  • #61,803
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:18am Nov 29, 2012 9:18am
Quoting Ken A
Then Boner turn is next

Right on Ken - I'd just been handed my San Miguel sun-downer when he opened his mouth and my profit meter spiked into the "bank in now" zone, so long may he continue pontificating......I think I'll have another one now to say cheers and thank Gofer for his excellent rant....WTG

PS Gofer - great last line too
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #61,804
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:21am Nov 29, 2012 9:21am
Dayum Boner just cost me 30 pips short
  • #61,805
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:45am Nov 29, 2012 9:45am
Quoting Gofer Pips
....Spending cuts are needed but not now for a Depression.

Once GDP reaches 3.5-4.0% growth and economy heats up inflation then monetary policy and major govt. spending cuts are necessary.
in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really matter WHEN you cut spending. When you do it you're killing confidence, stocks and thus the outlook for the economy regardless of where we are in our economic cycle. Cause the U.S. economy is built upon gov spending.

Tell me...How do you reach the 4% GDP ? Through innovation, productivity and private sector efficiency ? Or through public spending ? If you "buy" growth then the debt aint gonna shrink a cent.

One more thing with the booming growth and heated inflation. You know the aftermath of that ? Leveraged bets, hard core pyramid schemes, housing bubble....Boom comes THROUGH lending. Lending -> money -> demand. Central banks are always going to be behind the curve because their decision tools are wrong.

Each new lender accepts a higher price in money AND in price of goods. So, the house of cards will collapse again.

You cannot come out of a boom without a scratch. If you could then there wouldn't be a boom in the first place.
  • #61,806
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:04am Nov 29, 2012 10:04am
Quoting godrich
based solely on the percentage of sellers, as per oanda, i would say we are going up

i wanted to add that is just my opinion...give it the weight it deserves (very little)

Caught a little upside after this call and looks like we may see some more as oanda has 66 % going short.

welcome to the ny session....now give us your money.
  • #61,807
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:11am Nov 29, 2012 10:11am
Here's something to watch while the Euro bounces up and down in this range... Thanks to JK

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #61,808
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:15am Nov 29, 2012 10:15am
Quoting godrich
Caught a little upside after this call and looks like we may see some more as oanda has 66 % going short.

welcome to the ny session....now give us your money.
It's a lagging indicator not a leading one when determining the directional bias. Retail don't move the market, they give incentives to run their orders once accumulated in a tight spot. If the market suddenly dumps then you'll see the book reflect that as well.

Bottomline is, identify the short term trend on your chart and you'll know the retail positionings before you even look at them. More evident in eur and gbp. Less so in yen and mixed with aud. You're simply trading the trend not the retail positions.

Positions show the CURRENT level of sentiment. It's not a cause for future sentiment. Future trade incentives are important.
  • #61,809
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:15am Nov 29, 2012 10:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
Here's something to watch while the Euro bounces up and down in this range... Thanks to JK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MebaDb6HXyU
thanks PT....now i have something to do....
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #61,810
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:24am Nov 29, 2012 10:24am
Quoting lumesh
It's a lagging indicator not a leading one when determining the directional bias. Retail don't move the market, they give incentives to run their orders once accumulated in a tight spot. If the market suddenly dumps then you'll see the book reflect that as well.

Bottomline is, identify the short term trend on your chart and you'll know the retail positionings before you even look at them. More evident in eur and gbp. Less so in yen and mixed with aud. You're simply trading the trend not the retail positions.

Positions show the CURRENT level of...

thanks lumesh but to be honest it is just something i have a little fun with, nothing serious. kind of like a girlfriend on the side, we both know its not long term and can never work but we are still enjoying it

still think my "lagging" girlfriend is going to make me a few pips tonight...
  • #61,811
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:24am Nov 29, 2012 10:24am
Quoting lumesh
in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really matter WHEN you cut spending. When you do it you're killing confidence, stocks and thus the outlook for the economy regardless of where we are in our economic cycle. Cause the U.S. economy is built upon gov spending.

Tell me...How do you reach the 4% GDP ? Through innovation, productivity and private sector efficiency ? Or through public spending ? If you "buy" growth then the debt aint gonna shrink a cent.

One more thing with the booming growth and heated inflation. You know the aftermath...
It most certainly does matter WHEN you cut spending.....case in point Eurozone austerity measures. Game over on that one!

Your premise that US economy is built on government spending is ...how shall I say it....Horse pucky! Reason being would be that you do not think there are free capitalistic markets in US. I have my own business and It's success does not have one iota of dependency on government spending as I compete in the free market. However, there are regulations to protect the consumer or end-user of my products.

We reach 4% growth through creating a business climate through temporary government spending to put people back to work, thereby creating revenues for the treasury, and you can not do this without a large amount of capital after an economic collapse. IMO, increased government spending to achieve this through programs to improve infrastructure, education or re-education of the workforce, and elimination of government favoritism.

Rogue capitalists who bastardized and, I suggest, gave capitalism a bad name by only making decisions based on the personal greed of the upper echelons of the businesses and industries while suckling on the teets of the government through corporate welfare and special tax exempt considerations has corrupted and warped any semblance of a truly free
market. Let the market decide winners and losers!

Booming growth at a paltry( Look at growth in China) 3.5 -4% would not create heated inflation with proper monetary policy.

The aftermath of the growth you have misrepresented......leveraged bets and bubbles are created through the greed of those participating in the free market seeking more and more yield.

When the bubble bursts....let the chips fall where they may.

NO government intervention.

It is the job of the government to enact laws and regulations to prevent ANY industry or business from being in the position to threaten the viability of the economy based on decisions made in the private sector. And, the government must remain sidelined when said private sector businesses fail.

The days of privatizing profits and socializing debt have to come to an end.

I hope I have understood your reply correctly, as it seemed fragmented to my simple mind.
  • #61,812
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:36am Nov 29, 2012 10:36am
Quoting Gofer Pips
It most certainly does matter WHEN you cut spending.....case in point Eurozone austerity measures. Game over on that one! ...
I very much agree with most of what you said. I would actually add to the EZ case, that the only country who implemented structural reforms was Germany during the "happy times" (90s and 2000s) and it not only has managed to ride both rides (the boom and the bust) on high marks but more importantly is the only one from the major economies that is thousand of miles ahead when the recovery starts. EZ is in painful draconian cuts in the middle of the worse recession in decades and the US hasn't even bother start talking about a plan (a luxury only the richest country in the world with dollar monopoly can afford) ....

Serious macroeconomic management and control of spending at the right time always makes a huge difference in economics....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #61,813
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:39am Nov 29, 2012 10:39am
Quoting sisse
I very much agree with most of what you said. I would actually add to the EZ case, that the only country who implemented structural reforms was Germany during the "happy times" for the rest and it not only has managed to ride both rides (the boom and the bust) on high marks but more importantly is the only one from the major economies that is thousand of miles ahead when the recovery starts. EZ is in painful draconian cuts on the middle of the worse recession in decades and the US hasn't even bother start talking about a plan (the luxury only...
Great, and thanks for the reply as always sisse

That is exactly my point. US must get economic improvement, government reforms as well as tax reform, and sensical regulation of free market businesses, so that next trip up in economy, US will be prepared to weather the storm.
  • #61,814
  • Nov 29, 2012 10:58am Nov 29, 2012 10:58am
Anybody think we are going to get a freaky friday tomorrow with a Euro sell off?

All the makings are there. We have the double top on the daily, upside volatility, a weekend which looks to be filled with fiscal cliff wrangling and a Euro that is persistently trying to rise but stuck just under a major SR.

Hi Gopher, long time no see.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #61,815
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:01am Nov 29, 2012 11:01am
Quoting AaronWard
Anybody think we are going to get a freaky friday tomorrow with a Euro sell off?

All the makings are there. We have the double top on the daily, upside volatility, a weekend which looks to be filled with fiscal cliff wrangling and a Euro that is persistently trying to rise but stuck just under a major SR.

Hi Gopher, long time no see.
i am looking for overnight consolidation up to 130 with a false break higher followed by a sell off. everything is completely irrational right now though, anything can happen.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #61,816
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:02am Nov 29, 2012 11:02am
Quoting AaronWard
Anybody think we are going to get a freaky friday tomorrow with a Euro sell off?

All the makings are there. We have the double top on the daily, upside volatility, a weekend which looks to be filled with fiscal cliff wrangling and a Euro that is persistently trying to rise but stuck just under a major SR.

Hi Gopher, long time no see.
I think you already know you have my vote, but just in case you didn't know, here it is...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #61,817
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:03am Nov 29, 2012 11:03am
Quoting redteamgo
i am looking for overnight consolidation up to 130 with a false break higher followed by a sell off. everything is completely irrational right now though, anything can happen.
We already got that Red. No deja Vu please
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #61,818
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:08am Nov 29, 2012 11:08am
Quoting AaronWard
Anybody think we are going to get a freaky friday tomorrow with a Euro sell off?

All the makings are there. We have the double top on the daily, upside volatility, a weekend which looks to be filled with fiscal cliff wrangling and a Euro that is persistently trying to rise but stuck just under a major SR.

Hi Gopher, long time no see.
Hey Aaron. It's G-O-F-E-R like GO FOR....except in hillbilly talk as I am in hills of Tennessee!

Plus month end so I am all for sell-off!
  • #61,819
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:09am Nov 29, 2012 11:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
We already got that Red. No deja Vu please
Aren't we on our third Groundhog day already?
  • #61,820
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:11am Nov 29, 2012 11:11am
Quoting AaronWard
Anybody think we are going to get a freaky friday tomorrow with a Euro sell off?

All the makings are there. We have the double top on the daily, upside volatility, a weekend which looks to be filled with fiscal cliff wrangling and a Euro that is persistently trying to rise but stuck just under a major SR.

Hi Gopher, long time no see.
I think you answered your question already. Fiscal cliff is in full control and no instrument will move alone until the issue is settle. So the euro is only moving as a collateral and it won't act alone. IMO, better forget about any other euro FA underlying or small Tfs TA, tomorrow is monthly roll and Washington is in full control.

Equities, Gold and Oil are acting TA wise as the deal is around the corner and only a major flop or break up on the conversations will trigger panic... meanwhile, the news are way too big and important and they will offset any other specific factors across the board so let's ride the news and after we come back to the euro underlyings.

In simple words, euro sell off only possible as collateral of other markets so the juice and movers setups will come from somewhere else until the fiscal cliff is settle...monthly roll so a choppy neutral wide session will have preference given the levels we are trading (1.296x roll for reference)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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