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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,061
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:48am Nov 28, 2012 3:48am
Quoting MisterSpread
$79.044 ! If I'm wrong please correct me, maybe I didn't looked at your charts with more attention !
Thats the fib of the recent upmove i have buy orders on so dont want it to hit 79.044.

But you are right there is a lot in the way for bears to break through
  • #32,062
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:50am Nov 28, 2012 3:50am
Quoting MisterSpread
$79.044 ! If I'm wrong please correct me, maybe I didn't looked at your charts with more attention !
81.00/81.50 is area I like for longs SL will be near 79.50. I agree if this pair breaks to the downside there's going to be a ton of support levels it has to get thru. The path of least resistance seems like the upside to me.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,063
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:54am Nov 28, 2012 3:54am
Double bottom on M15 chart
  • #32,064
  • Nov 28, 2012 4:34am Nov 28, 2012 4:34am
Quoting brinks
Could be room for a bigger pullback here is what im looking for
I havent thought about stops yet maybe 79.50 area
- brinks, you posted a chart. I can't believe what I'm seeing.

- From now on, today will be a national holiday.

- Cheers.
  • #32,065
  • Nov 28, 2012 4:38am Nov 28, 2012 4:38am
Quoting Orly
23.6% Fib @ 81.773
38.2% @ 81.284
- Can you please post a chart to see which wave you study on which time frame?

- GL.
  • #32,066
  • Nov 28, 2012 6:05am Nov 28, 2012 6:05am
Quoting DaEdge
81.00/81.50 is area I like for longs SL will be near 79.50. I agree if this pair breaks to the downside there's going to be a ton of support levels it has to get thru. The path of least resistance seems like the upside to me.
For pairs that are not very volatile i don't use SL because I open in cascade and watch for my margin, if I didn't read the trend correctly I just let the trades unchanged until they come on profit, but before I enter a pair I study it for at least 1-2 months and also go back into it's history and only after that I trade it, but I never use SL ( a trade NO matter how bad was it opened it will be on profit, sooner or later just give it time, so why use SL ? )

Thank you brick for the nice chart cheers and green pips to everyone !

P.S: The phrase regarding the bad trade is not mine, it belongs to another user here so kudos to him !
  • #32,067
  • Nov 28, 2012 2:27pm Nov 28, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting Ziko9o8
- brinks, you posted a chart. I can't believe what I'm seeing.

- From now on, today will be a national holiday.

- Cheers.
Hahahahaha no problems I will try and post charts more often
  • #32,068
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:15pm Nov 28, 2012 3:15pm
Quoting brinks
Hahahahaha no problems I will try and post charts more often
this pair has turned pancake flat expected after huge moves
  • #32,069
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:33pm Nov 28, 2012 3:33pm
Quoting brinks
Hahahahaha no problems I will try and post charts more often
Do it cause I like USDJPY more and more...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...record-%C2%A51

Did you saw this? +1 point for fundamental
  • #32,070
  • Nov 28, 2012 4:16pm Nov 28, 2012 4:16pm
Quoting MisterSpread
Do it cause I like USDJPY more and more...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...record-%C2%A51

Did you saw this? +1 point for fundamental
Not necessarilly so, it may be that the BoJ has lost control over what is happening to JPY and if this is the case then trading all JPY pairs would be just as good as playing Russian roulette

Not that forex differs that much from Russian roulette anyway
  • #32,071
  • Nov 28, 2012 11:08pm Nov 28, 2012 11:08pm
Quoting moneyholic
Not necessarilly so, it may be that the BoJ has lost control over what is happening to JPY and if this is the case then trading all JPY pairs would be just as good as playing Russian roulette

Not that forex differs that much from Russian roulette anyway
Buddy, if what you are saying is true and BOJ lost control over the YEN, on fundamental that could only mean 1 thing for me BUY USDJPY, if a central bank can't control it's own currency that means instability for the currency and all the investors will run away from it, but maybe i'm wrong.

On other point of view last night the YoY Retails Sales in Japan slumped to -1.2%, they need a much weaker YEN so they can overpass this deflation period and also to encourage foreign investors to buy more from Japan.
  • #32,072
  • Nov 29, 2012 1:20am Nov 29, 2012 1:20am
I was just looking at a report on the latest COT reprot. Large speculators (funds) are at an extreme short position on the Yen, so this indicates COT wise that its almost maxed out signalling that it will go long, ie Short USDJPY.

Any thoughts? To me we're at an unprecendented stage with the Yen that the figures in the COT dont show fundamentally why theres still plenty of short side left in the Yen.
I guess one thing is true from all this however, given the COT shows an extreme amount of shorts, that without BOJ / Monetary easing that shorts will exit and therefore make Yen go Long.

So from that perspective perhaps its on the ball.
  • #32,073
  • Nov 29, 2012 2:21am Nov 29, 2012 2:21am
Quoting MisterSpread
Buddy, if what you are saying is true and BOJ lost control over the YEN, on fundamental that could only mean 1 thing for me BUY USDJPY, if a central bank can't control it's own currency that means instability for the currency and all the investors will run away from it, but maybe i'm wrong.

On other point of view last night the YoY Retails Sales in Japan slumped to -1.2%, they need a much weaker YEN so they can overpass this deflation period and also to encourage foreign investors to buy more from Japan.
I do not know whether it is true, or not. It is just a thought, based on that I'm not sure if what we've got here now is a correction, or reversal. BoJ is not as effective with their QE as, say, their Swiss couterpart. If they failed again then it would mean than JPY is nothing else but a big, fat sharks' game, in which case the best thing would be to wait and see. And yes, I am aware, like everyone else here, that Japanese economy needs weak JPY more than anything.
  • #32,074
  • Edited 3:58am Nov 29, 2012 3:31am | Edited 3:58am
Quoting moneyholic
I do not know whether it is true, or not. It is just a thought, based on that I'm not sure if what we've got here now is a correction, or reversal. BoJ is not as effective with their QE as, say, their Swiss couterpart. If they failed again then it would mean than JPY is nothing else but a big, fat sharks' game, in which case the best thing would be to wait and see. And yes, I am aware, like everyone else here, that Japanese economy needs weak JPY more than anything.
You know why they don't do it faster? Because those Samurai's are waiting for the elections you'll see, mark my words after Abe wins the election I'm about 70% sure that USDJPY will be over $84 or very close, time will tell !

What a good image boom will be for Abe if after the elections he will push BOJ so hard and they will do something big in the market and the yen weakens dramatically, he will be like a Knight in shining armor !
  • #32,075
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:26am Nov 29, 2012 4:26am
Quoting MisterSpread
You know why they don't do it faster? Because those Samurai's are waiting for the elections you'll see, mark my words after Abe wins the election I'm about 70% sure that USDJPY will be over $84 or very close, time will tell !

What a good image boom will be for Abe if after the elections he will push BOJ so hard and they will do something big in the market and the yen weakens dramatically, he will be like a Knight in shining armor !
Pull the other one. EVEN if the opposition leader wins, it will take weeks or even months to put together a viable government. And if the current government wins, the same thing will happen. Sometime in 2013. If you really think that 20 years of deflation and poor governance can be changed in one day, with one election, in a huge global economy, maybe you'ld like to accept a phone call from some of my "friends" in Nigeria who have a great deal for you.
  • #32,076
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:31am Nov 29, 2012 4:31am
If the americans come up with a solution to the fiscal cliff and abe gets in i think we will see dollar yen go up.
the market is forward looking and will start to price it all in.
  • #32,077
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:35am Nov 29, 2012 4:35am
Quoting Mpt
Pull the other one. EVEN if the opposition leader wins, it will take weeks or even months to put together a viable government. And if the current government wins, the same thing will happen. Sometime in 2013. If you really think that 20 years of deflation and poor governance can be changed in one day, with one election, in a huge global economy, maybe you'ld like to accept a phone call from some of my "friends" in Nigeria who have a great deal for you.

Buddy, if Abe doesn't win , I will not be 70% that USDJPY I will be 101% because POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY = weak local currency, so either way my bankroll will increase !
  • #32,078
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:45am Nov 29, 2012 4:45am
Quoting MisterSpread
Buddy, if Abe doesn't win , I will not be 70% that USDJPY I will be 101% because POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY = weak local currency, so either way my bankroll will increase !
This f-ing forum has gone from waiting for the f-ing intervention to the hope and prayer of a new Prime Minister. It's horseshit and a total f-ing gamble. Grow up. Try to learn about forex trading!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #32,079
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:49am Nov 29, 2012 4:49am
Quoting MisterSpread
Buddy, if Abe doesn't win , I will not be 70% that USDJPY I will be 101% because POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY = weak local currency, so either way my bankroll will increase !
Remember, what happened to USD/JPY in 2008? Remember Fukushima disaster? This is what hard times do to yen.
  • #32,080
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:54am Nov 29, 2012 4:54am
Quoting Mpt
OMG!!!!!!!!!!!

Just like shitloads of others before me, I'm outa here. The idiots really are in control. When USDJPY hits 73, maybe you've got a good case.

Bye

$73 ? Please enlighten us Master, when was USDJPY $73 ? I didn't see anyone to offend here, but who knows maybe you also trade OIL and I don't want to start a discussion with because I'm going to hit OIL for sure
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