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  • #2,421
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:30am Nov 27, 2012 8:30am
Quoting Crassius
Took profit on half at 1.2950... rest will be booked at 1.2911..
Stop lowered to 2976 on second half.
  • #2,422
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:14am Nov 27, 2012 11:14am
Looking very much like five very clean, well proportioned and impulsive waves on the hourly down from the emotional high in the area of a falling trend line going all the way back to 2011and of course the very big very round figure of 1.3000.

The 1.3007 top interpretation as a C wave looking more likely, but lets see how PA acts over the coming hours...

A top may be in place....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,423
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:04pm Nov 27, 2012 11:04pm

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  • #2,424
  • Nov 28, 2012 5:10am Nov 28, 2012 5:10am
Quoting Crassius
Stop lowered to 2976 on second half.

Just closed the second half at 2912.... prolly should have hung onto it, but my balls are blue... will re-enter short higher if possible
  • #2,425
  • Nov 28, 2012 5:20am Nov 28, 2012 5:20am
Quoting TauTrader
Like the chart very much.

I have 1.2900 / 1.2899 marked for future reference. This seems to be smack bang in your blue box... Interesting.

All success to you

Regards
Good day, visited.

We also have to now mark 1.2963 as an important number going forward.

Regards
  • #2,426
  • Nov 28, 2012 6:21am Nov 28, 2012 6:21am
Quoting Crassius
I do not like the extreme optimism over the Greek BS story and with the Holiday thin conditions, I half expect the alternate count on the below chart, which counts the three wvaes up we have seen so far to 1.2992 as a corrective ABC

I wouldn't be interested in opening a new long position until we get inside the blue box I have drawn on the chart, which...

I still like the ABC possibility.... .

We are inside my box having traded as low as 2890..... 2880 is prett strong technically...

I still favor the ABC interpretation, which would put 3107/09 as top of a wave C, instead of wave 3 ( the alt count)....

This makes me not want to take long's from this area, but anticipate a bounce from this area to get short higher....
  • #2,427
  • Edited 6:45am Nov 28, 2012 6:41am | Edited 6:45am
I have been asked why I favor the ABC interpretation with 1.3009 as top of wave C instead of being top of wave 3....

Because....

1. We got to see price action after the risk event that bid price all the way up to near 1.3000.... and it was unimpressive to say the least...

2. In face, what we got to see was not impulsive action, but rather price rejection, ye t again from a long term falling trend line going all the way back to 2011.

3. The price action coming back down from the post announcement emotional high was in five very clean waves, in an impulsive manner.

4. S&P500 selling off pretty predictably through back 1400... Its nearly the end of the year.... a little over two weeks of real trading conditions left.... Do you think any money managers are going to open new S&P500 longs now?

Much more likely they breathed a sigh of relief to see 1400 once again and sold the shit out of everything they had so they can close their books on 2012 and show whatever performance they can....

They are not likely to take on more risk this time of year...... so its a profit taking decline environment in a topping market likely to be rolling over into a bear market.....

That is not a good environment for EURUSD to be breaking trough a multi-year trend line into a wave 5 top.....
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  • #2,428
  • Nov 28, 2012 6:53am Nov 28, 2012 6:53am
Quoting Crassius
That is not a good environment for EURUSD to be breaking trough a multi-year trend line into a wave 5 top.....

Most likely given the seasonality and other factors outlined above, it would take something like Spain's official request for aid triggering the much touted OMT to fuel a break of the multi-year trend line we just ejected during the rest of 2012....
  • #2,429
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:06am Nov 28, 2012 9:06am
1,2808 & 1,2798 are the next two lines for current drop, will it last longer or continue lower?
Will check on friday before departure.
regards
Tom
swing it!
  • #2,430
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:33am Nov 28, 2012 9:33am
you make excellent points

Quoting Crassius
I have been asked why I favor the ABC interpretation with 1.3009 as top of wave C instead of being top of wave 3....

Because....

1. We got to see price action after the risk event that bid price all the way up to near 1.3000.... and it was unimpressive to say the least...

2. In face, what we got to see was not impulsive action, but rather price rejection, ye t again from a long term falling trend line going all the way back to 2011.

3. The price action coming back down from the post announcement emotional high was in five very clean waves,...
  • #2,431
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:34am Nov 28, 2012 9:34am
Quoting tomspin
1,2808 & 1,2798 are the next two lines for current drop, will it last longer or continue lower?
Will check on friday before departure.
regards
Tom
good day to you, sir

Should we reach those numbers mentioned above - I believe we will have a sweet long into 1.2963.

All the best with your trip. Take time and enjoy.

Regards
  • #2,432
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:41am Nov 28, 2012 9:41am
Quoting Crassius
Most likely given the seasonality and other factors outlined above, it would take something like Spain's official request for aid triggering the much touted OMT to fuel a break of the multi-year trend line we just ejected during the rest of 2012....
agree. that (OMT) and/or other positive news out of Europe..........resolution of the US FC issue which may be played out between the 'opposing parties' for sake of appearing to have achieved the 'magic moment' of actually being able to govern rationally (for the photo ops/political drama), and the PILE of QE money that will be looking for a place to park........

the DAX is all over the board so far this AM.............i guess Boehner has a positive outlook..........Dax back up 70 pts off low already...step out for 15 minutes and missed the show.....what a circus
  • #2,433
  • Nov 28, 2012 11:32am Nov 28, 2012 11:32am
Quoting Crassius
We are inside my box having traded as low as 2890..... 2880 is prett strong technically...

I still favor the ABC interpretation, which would put 3107/09 as top of a wave C, instead of wave 3 ( the alt count)....

This makes me not want to take long's from this area, but anticipate a bounce from this area to get short higher....

Bounce right from 2880.....

I have my first tranche of new short position in at the 100 HMA 2937, and more layered up to the 61.8% retrace near 2960, against the post Greek BS top....
  • #2,434
  • Nov 28, 2012 11:47am Nov 28, 2012 11:47am
Quoting roro53
.........resolution of the US FC issue which may be played out between the 'opposing parties' for sake of appearing to have achieved the 'magic moment' of actually being able to govern

.....what a circus

Yes, this is the other meaningless, but important driver of price action.

We all know the "cliff" is an artifice of government and will be waved away by government like Harry Potter waving his magic wand..... ( wait till they lose control of interest rates on US treasuries.... that's the real cliff) nonetheless, markets often seize upon a risk event and dance to it as though in the long run the entire future depends on it.

The S&P500 surely is in the throes of such irrational market behavior, and when a deal is announced, a pop will occur, and EURUSD will pop with it... a danger for any open short positions.... and possibly a damper on some opening new shorts.

I'm betting the Kabucki goes to the eleventh hour, and some scares come along the way sending S&P500 and EURUSD with it lower....

There will also be periods of optimism like the current one.... imagine the number of money managers that were sweating that they let the last +1400 print get by them without taking any risk off ahead of the close of the year.... every time we get above 1400 again they will be tempted to take some risk off for fear it may be the last time... thus dampening any moves before the actual announcement...

There will be plenty of money managers of course that know a deal will be ultimately be reached, and a pop will follow in knee jerk reaction, and they are going to wait all the way to the announcement before actually selling into it, and closing their books for the year.
  • #2,435
  • Nov 28, 2012 11:57am Nov 28, 2012 11:57am
Quoting Crassius
The S&P500 surely is in the throes of such irrational market behavior, and when a deal is announced, a pop will occur, and EURUSD will pop with it... a danger for any open short positions.... and possibly a damper on some opening new shorts.

Owing to these conditions... I will keep my position size small (1/3rd normal) and will keep my stop loss unchanged.... if we break the post Greek BS high, I'm out with a very predictable, very manageable loss during a move in which I have already collected more $'s ( by shorting from 2992 earlier) than I am risking....
  • #2,436
  • Nov 28, 2012 12:28pm Nov 28, 2012 12:28pm
more excellent points and informed insights.......just noticed in the flurry that the S&P held the 200 DMA at the lows..

higher bond yields pretty much means the governments are bankrupt, and/or face real hard choices when it comes to cutting spending.

that seems to spell austerity, and no one wants austerity..........a rational rationalization makes sense but that involves debt forgiveness

how long the bond markets can be kept at bay?.....do not know especially with the FED now owning upwards of 25% all govt issue 5 yrs and higher and climbing...

just trying to stay on the right side of price and the discussions about it all are very informative/educational, imo.

Quoting Crassius
Yes, this is the other meaningless, but important driver of price action.

We all know the "cliff" is an artifice of government and will be waved away by government like Harry Potter waving his magic wand..... ( wait till they lose control of interest rates on US treasuries.... that's the real cliff) nonetheless, markets often seize upon a risk event and dance to it as though in the long run the entire future depends on it.

The S&P500 surely is in the throes of such irrational market behavior, and when a deal is announced, a pop will occur, and...
  • #2,437
  • Nov 28, 2012 4:41pm Nov 28, 2012 4:41pm
Count....

I have to admit 1.2880 makes a really nice wave 4 bottom as well....

OH well, I am fully loaded on my light short position and will play it as a wave 1 in a down trend that is putting in its wave 2..... I'm trading my plan till the market proves me wrong by taking out 1.3009.

I have my reasons outlined above....
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  • #2,438
  • Nov 28, 2012 5:38pm Nov 28, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting Crassius
Count....


OH well, I am fully loaded on my light short position and will play it as a wave 1 .

Call me crazy but I just closed this position and went flat at BE... My basis was 2949 after the last add at 1.2960, the 61.8% retrace...

I have seen Phil Ivey lay hands down with uncanny intuition.... on pure intuition.... He'll sometimes say he doesn'yt know why he is folding, he just doesn't feel like continuing with the hand anymore....

He has other-wordly instincts....

I feel like that now.... am have gone flat...
  • #2,439
  • Nov 28, 2012 6:21pm Nov 28, 2012 6:21pm
Quoting Crassius
Call me crazy but I just closed this position and went flat at BE... My basis was 2949 after the last add at 1.2960, the 61.8% retrace...

I have seen Phil Ivey lay hands down with uncanny intuition.... on pure intuition.... He'll sometimes say he doesn'yt know why he is folding, he just doesn't feel like continuing with the hand anymore....

He has other-wordly instincts....

I feel like that now.... am have gone flat...
you are cutting edge......that is plainly obvious

Inserted Video
  • #2,440
  • Nov 28, 2012 7:10pm Nov 28, 2012 7:10pm
"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.."
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