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  • #2,401
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:32am Nov 26, 2012 1:32am
Quoting cdndollar
hello Mr.T-..
hope you had a nice w/e.. looks like Cable finally came alive..

Updated EURUSD elephant paths..
Attachment
Good day to you, sir

Yip - I certainly do not have any reason to look for shorts. But I am in no trade at this time. Will be waiting patiently for a new signal to enter. Hope you have a good week-end too and well rested.

I'm sitting on my hands this side...

All the best to you for the week ahead

Regards
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  • #2,402
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:37am Nov 26, 2012 1:37am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you, sir

Yip - I certainly do not have any reason to look for shorts. But I am in no trade at this time. Will be waiting patiently for a new signal to enter. Hope you have a good week-end too and well rested.

I'm sitting on my hands this side...

All the best to you for the week ahead

Regards
Thank you.. gone flat on Friday.. just got itchy fingers again..

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  • #2,403
  • Nov 26, 2012 2:18am Nov 26, 2012 2:18am
I am a bit distracted restoring my dedicated trading computer following the 2nd Hard disk failure in two years... I have good backups, but no image.... but what a pain in the ass...
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  • #2,404
  • Nov 26, 2012 2:46am Nov 26, 2012 2:46am
I do not like the extreme optimism over the Greek BS story and with the Holiday thin conditions, I half expect the alternate count on the below chart, which counts the three wvaes up we have seen so far to 1.2992 as a corrective ABC will prove to be correct in the long run. We should not have exceeded 2910/20 if this is only a correction within a larger down move... so I am not sure. Was price rise extended due to the thin conditions? When we are counting on such a small scale it is easy to get confused, and we can solve the problem by simply trading what we see, and let the bigger picture take care of itself in the long run. There are plenty of pips to be made at this scale, without getting hung up over whether we are counting interior counter moves to a larger trend, or seeing a trend change.

I wouldn't be interested in opening a new long position until we get inside the blue box I have drawn on the chart, which... if in fact a wave 4 is to come, should outline its likely extent.... usually the exact bottom of wave 4 tests wave 4 of one smaller degree. That would be near the extreme bottom of the box. The 38.2% retrace of wave 3 would come in at 1.2876, and make a good target.

I still like the ABC possibility.... so I would want to keep a tight stop on any new longs.... We know that the probability of a successful trade trying to catch the bottom of a wave 4 decreases significantly if wave 4 exceeds 50% retrace of wave 3, so we could place a stop under 1.2841.

The high volatility likely associated with the Greek BS news is a danger, but with this trade idea we have an opportunity for a small risk/high reward. And that my friends is the only Holy Grail there is.... If we miss the entry... so be it... we didn't get our desired Risk/Reward scenario and another opportunity will present itself just around the next corner.... it always does. If we get stopped out... so be it. We can be wrong on this trade more often then not and still break even.
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  • #2,405
  • Edited 3:26am Nov 26, 2012 3:25am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting Crassius
We know that the probability of a successful trade trying to catch the bottom of a wave 4 decreases significantly if wave 4 exceeds 50% retrace of wave 3, so we could place a stop under 1.2841.
To clarify... the trade is in danger below 1.2841.... stop should be somewhere below.... I like below the swing low at 1.2833.

.
  • #2,406
  • Nov 26, 2012 4:06am Nov 26, 2012 4:06am
Tentative time for EuroGroup press conference after meeting today is at 10 PM London.... scuttlebutt is they have made little progress toward agreement in the intervening days....

Eye out for statements from ministers as they enter meeting that starts later today 10:30 AM London Time.
  • #2,407
  • Nov 26, 2012 5:32am Nov 26, 2012 5:32am
Quoting Crassius
I am a bit distracted restoring my dedicated trading computer following the 2nd Hard disk failure in two years... I have good backups, but no image.... but what a pain in the ass...
Good day to you, Mr.C-

- this is bad... hope you get this sorted.

Regards
  • #2,408
  • Nov 26, 2012 5:35am Nov 26, 2012 5:35am
Quoting Crassius
I do not like the extreme optimism over the Greek BS story and with the Holiday thin conditions, I half expect the alternate count on the below chart, which counts the three wvaes up we have seen so far to 1.2992 as a corrective ABC will prove to be correct in the long run. We should not have exceeded 2910/20 if this is only a correction within a larger down move... so I am not sure. Was price rise extended due to the thin conditions? When we are counting on such a small scale it is easy to get confused, and we can solve the problem by simply...
Like the chart very much.

I have 1.2900 / 1.2899 marked for future reference. This seems to be smack bang in your blue box... Interesting.

All success to you

Regards
  • #2,409
  • Nov 26, 2012 7:02am Nov 26, 2012 7:02am
Quoting TauTrader
Lukaszek,

It is a combination of 3 indicators with various settings, with duplication of Moving Averages as well as RSI. The heart of the indicator is a dynamic cycle explorer. Dynamic will mean that the indicator moves. Dangerous on it's own.Can not be used for signalling purposes - only for guidance. This is used in conjunction with Renko charts. Trades are actually taken off Renko. The chart you are referring to, serves as confirmation only.

I'm not ready to share anything more. A lot of time has gone into this and it remains work-in-progress.

Hope...
Thank you for all the information, I totally understand it took a lot of time and hard work. I was just curious because have never seen anything like that. Again, I appreciate what you shared here.
  • #2,410
  • Nov 26, 2012 8:12am Nov 26, 2012 8:12am
Quoting lukaszek
Thank you for all the information, I totally understand it took a lot of time and hard work. I was just curious because have never seen anything like that. Again, I appreciate what you shared here.
Sir, thank you - but I gave you nothing...

I see you are newly registered. Take this from me... if you do not know all the trading jargon - you are frowned upon. To be taken seriously around here,( FF in general) you will have to study words like: " TA", " Fibs","SR", "Congestion","Cluster" ( not cluster f*ck - different meaning), "PA", " Naked" etc.etc.etc.

The better you spit these out - the more seriously you will be taken.

So - go study these words. Type them often - and within the space of a few weeks - you will be vouched to the teeth. Awesome!

I wish you all success

Regards
  • #2,411
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:14pm Nov 26, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Crassius
I do not like the extreme optimism over the Greek BS story and with the Holiday thin conditions, I half expect the alternate count on the below chart, which counts the three wvaes up we have seen so far to 1.2992 as a corrective ABC

I wouldn't be interested in opening a new long position until we get inside the blue box I have drawn on the chart, which... The 38.2% retrace of wave 3 would come in at 1.2876, and make a good target.
Under normal conditions on this very standard. "catch the bottom of wave 4" trade I would simply layer in buy limit orders toward the bottom of the box on the chart from the above post, and let it work against my stop, which is chosen to reside at a level that looks to break the pattern, and also give good risk/reward ratio. The good Risk/Reward ratio allows me to just let the trade work... in the long run always trading with good R/R makes the inevitable losses non-consequential.... losses just don't matter if you play this game right.

It is now ten hours after the above post and we have gone nowhere as the market treads water during the Eurogroup meeting. I had some hopes that an S&P 500 sell off would drive price lower, but it too is treading water....

This means that for fills to happen at this late hour, it will likely be during a fast money move or spike following disappointment form the meeting..... but it also may be short lived disappointment... ala last time.... There is another scheduled Eurogroup meeting just around the corner... Dec 3rd.... I can just here the FinMin's saying they have made much progress, and an agreement is expected at the next meeting etc etc. which brings a sharp spike down that is quickly retraced as the market swallows yet more vomit from the FinMins.... Can you spell Deja Vu...

But this still leaves the most likely scenario to get filled will be in highly emotional trading conditions..... this calls for some risk abatement from our normal trading style, having given it ten hours in the oven already, and the Eurogroup meeting end and press conference on tap in the coming overnight hours....

There are two ways to lower risk on this entry... cut your exposure (trade size) in half or some other fraction and let the trade plan work as planned knowing emotional price action adds risk that price may move to extremes and take your stop out, only to bounce back as the emotion fades...

or watch price action and/or an oscillator and only enter after the market shows signs of exhaustion and subsequent turning.. IF it occurs in relation to the box.... if price exceed the 50% retrace of wave 3 before turning... the trade looks less promising.... and waiting for a clearer setup more inviting.

A perfect scenario would be "it was all a buy the rumor, sell the fact" sell off into our buy zone where the early profit takers start to buy back in as price starts to look cheap again as we come into some serious levels of support.
  • #2,412
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:24pm Nov 26, 2012 1:24pm
I would feel more comfy at 3063 with those candles,
I am standing aside, it does look like a roll over in most pairs and coming dollar strength as we hit monthly pivot but still haven't got confidence to pull the trigger.
swing it!
  • #2,413
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:55pm Nov 26, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting tomspin
I would feel more comfy at 3063 with those candles,
I am standing aside, it does look like a roll over in most pairs and coming dollar strength as we hit monthly pivot but still haven't got confidence to pull the trigger.
seems to be a shift in rhetoric to the debt forgiveness plan..........market positive imo especially with the commitment to print by the major central banks and BOJ thrown into the mix

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...rumor-dominate

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...1126_EUR_0.png

Chart: Bloomberg
  • #2,414
  • Nov 26, 2012 2:49pm Nov 26, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting roro53
seems to be a shift in rhetoric to the debt forgiveness plan..........market positive imo especially with the commitment to print by the major central banks and BOJ thrown into the mix
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...rumor-dominate

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...1126_EUR_0.png

Chart: Bloomberg
That is the main reason behind bulls imo and my persistent stance for euro - even if EZ is in shit state. Technically we should go lower but month end could be 4th bullish candle - it just can't be ignored.
swing it!
  • #2,415
  • Nov 26, 2012 3:13pm Nov 26, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting tomspin
That is the main reason behind bulls imo and my persistent stance for euro - even if EZ is in shit state. Technically we should go lower but month end could be 4th bullish candle - it just can't be ignored.
probably another point worth making is that 'fiscal union' infers transfers (so loans to less economically advantaged states/provinces/regions become transfer payments instead) and all single currency unions have transfers...

Germany and other OSI forgives Greece's debt or a substantial percentage of it and one step closer to a more integrated EU........maybe other negotiations taking place out of the public eye also, involving more than Greece in an overarching deal....

possible? not impossible.
  • #2,416
  • Nov 26, 2012 5:24pm Nov 26, 2012 5:24pm
goal seeked?

And this is how previous IMF projections of Greek economic results have fared:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...20greece_0.png


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...btgdp-124-2020
  • #2,417
  • Nov 26, 2012 7:04pm Nov 26, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting Crassius
Under normal conditions on this very standard. "catch the bottom of wave 4" trade I would simply layer in buy limit orders toward the bottom of the box on the chart from the above post, and let it work against my stop



A perfect scenario would be "it was all a buy the rumor, sell the fact" sell off into our buy zone where the early profit takers start to buy back in as price starts to look cheap again as we come into some serious levels of support.

I just canceled all my orders.... sure looks like a buy the rumor sell the fact reaction....

I am not exactly sure if five waves are in or three. We have traded as high as 1.3010 ..... would like to see how price action develops before contemplating an entry. The shape and character of the coming price action will help clarify....

Wide EURUSD resistance zone 3020 - 3070.... I was expecting one more wave higher to challenge that area... we didn't get that high, but we have come awfully close....

I'll wait and see what develops....
  • #2,418
  • Nov 26, 2012 10:55pm Nov 26, 2012 10:55pm
Not an Elliott Wave trade... just a seat of the pants fade the rumor buyers short term top trade...

I just sold against a 1.3042 stop looking for a move back toward 1.2900/10
  • #2,419
  • Nov 27, 2012 3:51am Nov 27, 2012 3:51am
Quoting Crassius
Not an Elliott Wave trade... just a seat of the pants fade the rumor buyers short term top trade...

I just sold against a 1.3042 stop looking for a move back toward 1.2900/10

Stop loss to BE on this trade... I added at 1.2998, basis now 1.2992...

Working from this count.... I still favor the ABC alt count, so will probably not take any longs from inside the predicted Wave 4 bottom box. The wave 3 alt C exceeds expected proportions of a wave C because it exceeds 161.8% of wave A.... That should make me favor the wave 3 interpretation, and lead me to take longs from the bottom of wave 4....

Maybe price action, equity market action, or more positive economic indicators could tempt me into longs..... but probably not.....
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  • #2,420
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:27am Nov 27, 2012 4:27am
Quoting Crassius
Not an Elliott Wave trade... just a seat of the pants fade the rumor buyers short term top trade...

I just sold against a 1.3042 stop looking for a move back toward 1.2900/10

Took profit on half at 1.2950... rest will be booked at 1.2911..
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