IF 70-80% are short, are we going to see parity soon?
- #61,623
- Nov 27, 2012 1:41pm Nov 27, 2012 1:41pm
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2012 | 3,285 Posts
EUR/USD weekly candle looking pretty bullish to me...
This week we didn't see much in the way of buying so I wouldn't expect a major sell off today. 1.312 still stands as next target.
1.312 (triple top) is still my first target for EUR/USD.
Current Daily candle is not looking very bearish...
- #61,631
- Nov 27, 2012 3:10pm Nov 27, 2012 3:10pm
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts
ok thank you buddy. i set a pending buy order at 1.2875.
let's ses what will happen tomorrow
- #61,633
- Nov 27, 2012 4:12pm Nov 27, 2012 4:12pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #61,634
- Nov 27, 2012 4:13pm Nov 27, 2012 4:13pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #61,635
- Nov 27, 2012 4:15pm Nov 27, 2012 4:15pm
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2012 | 3,285 Posts
Regarding Daily Candle close: What you see in your broker chart is very subjective regarding reading candles and may lead you wrongly. I prefer Daily closing at GMT + 0, Although I have couple of brokers from different GMT timing closing.
I also prefer GMT +0, I ONLY use this time when analyzing Daily candles.
- #61,638
- Edited 1:21am Nov 28, 2012 12:28am | Edited 1:21am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning fellow traders...
The Greek can got kicked again... or did it? Well yes it did, but it didn't get kicked very far. The IMF is not yet fully on board with the deal because after weeks of head bashing meetings, the genius finance ministers and other interested parties such as the ECB and the IMF could not come up with a viable plan to reduce Greece's debt to or below 120% of GDP by 2020. Instead they decided to compromise and come up with a plan that "may" see the Greek debt burden at 1.24% of GDP in 2020 and at or below 110% by 2022. The problem here is that in order to reach those targets, Greek bond holders will have to take a haircut. There is no other way... and that is why it's not going to work. Here's the stalemate. The IMF will not allow their portion of funds to be disbursed without a debt reduction that will make the 120% target possible and the Bundestag (German Parliament) will most likely not approve the package tomorrow without certain conditions if the deal introduces the possibility of an official sector haircut. Their only hope at this point is for a debt buy-back. In this scenario, Greece buys back the required amount of its issued bonds at a discount and then wipes those bonds off its books. However, there is no mention of where the money for the buy-back would come from. Anyway, it's a huge mess and is sure to rear it's ugly head again very very soon. As such the markets are not impressed resulting in not only a failure to rally, but also a reversal of the positive sentiment it was supposed to generate. If you'd like to try and figure out how this is supposed to be a deal to rejoice about, the WSJ wrote a nice piece on it here.
The US Fiscal Cliff issue seems to be front and center again as key players in Washington continue to butt heads and achieve nothing. It's not going to be easy to resolve all the issues. I do believe there will eventually be a compromise and that they won't fall off the cliff in January, but there will definitely be some form of austerity measures which will temper growth in the US and therefore also temper global growth as a whole. Regardless though, I still envision a recovering US economy, albeit tempered, going forward with Asia following and Europe seriously lagging in a double dip recession. On this and many related issues, time will tell.
In a nutshell, whilst considering the disappointment of the Greek deal and the pending tension over the US fiscal cliff, I fully expect risk to be seriously subdued for now with price action being very news sensitive. All it would take is a simple comment from a key figure to move sentiment either way. However, to me that is all intraday noise as the bigger picture is in the pudding and not the individual ingredients.
Technically, this pair is way above fair value and has yet to complete the double top pattern I identified almost two weeks ago. There is a slight risk that these irrational markets may make a final push higher to paint a triple top before the bearish resumption I have been expecting for quite a while now. The key levels for this week are 1.3010 on the top side and 1.2840 on the bottom. A breach and continuation of either of these two levels will be required to determine the short term direction, but medium and long term, I remain very bearish looking to reach 1.2466 to complete the DT pattern.
Best of luck today and trade safe.
E/U Daily:
Pete Jackson's Order Board:
Not available today
Today's Euro FX Option Expiries at 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.2875, 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2935, 1.2940, 1.2945, 1.3000, 1.3100 (there’s also a 1.2625-1.3160 DNT rolling off today )
The Greek can got kicked again... or did it? Well yes it did, but it didn't get kicked very far. The IMF is not yet fully on board with the deal because after weeks of head bashing meetings, the genius finance ministers and other interested parties such as the ECB and the IMF could not come up with a viable plan to reduce Greece's debt to or below 120% of GDP by 2020. Instead they decided to compromise and come up with a plan that "may" see the Greek debt burden at 1.24% of GDP in 2020 and at or below 110% by 2022. The problem here is that in order to reach those targets, Greek bond holders will have to take a haircut. There is no other way... and that is why it's not going to work. Here's the stalemate. The IMF will not allow their portion of funds to be disbursed without a debt reduction that will make the 120% target possible and the Bundestag (German Parliament) will most likely not approve the package tomorrow without certain conditions if the deal introduces the possibility of an official sector haircut. Their only hope at this point is for a debt buy-back. In this scenario, Greece buys back the required amount of its issued bonds at a discount and then wipes those bonds off its books. However, there is no mention of where the money for the buy-back would come from. Anyway, it's a huge mess and is sure to rear it's ugly head again very very soon. As such the markets are not impressed resulting in not only a failure to rally, but also a reversal of the positive sentiment it was supposed to generate. If you'd like to try and figure out how this is supposed to be a deal to rejoice about, the WSJ wrote a nice piece on it here.
The US Fiscal Cliff issue seems to be front and center again as key players in Washington continue to butt heads and achieve nothing. It's not going to be easy to resolve all the issues. I do believe there will eventually be a compromise and that they won't fall off the cliff in January, but there will definitely be some form of austerity measures which will temper growth in the US and therefore also temper global growth as a whole. Regardless though, I still envision a recovering US economy, albeit tempered, going forward with Asia following and Europe seriously lagging in a double dip recession. On this and many related issues, time will tell.
In a nutshell, whilst considering the disappointment of the Greek deal and the pending tension over the US fiscal cliff, I fully expect risk to be seriously subdued for now with price action being very news sensitive. All it would take is a simple comment from a key figure to move sentiment either way. However, to me that is all intraday noise as the bigger picture is in the pudding and not the individual ingredients.
Technically, this pair is way above fair value and has yet to complete the double top pattern I identified almost two weeks ago. There is a slight risk that these irrational markets may make a final push higher to paint a triple top before the bearish resumption I have been expecting for quite a while now. The key levels for this week are 1.3010 on the top side and 1.2840 on the bottom. A breach and continuation of either of these two levels will be required to determine the short term direction, but medium and long term, I remain very bearish looking to reach 1.2466 to complete the DT pattern.
Best of luck today and trade safe.
E/U Daily:
Pete Jackson's Order Board:
Not available today
Today's Euro FX Option Expiries at 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.2875, 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2935, 1.2940, 1.2945, 1.3000, 1.3100 (there’s also a 1.2625-1.3160 DNT rolling off today )
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
