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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #61,561
  • Nov 26, 2012 8:13pm Nov 26, 2012 8:13pm
Quoting AaronWard
I agree that the technical argument for continued Euro weakness is not strong. With the near reversal of the may-june fall, technically it looks like the strong down trend that has been in place since May 2011 is over. PA shows strength as well with a persistent and steady rise that is indicative of a trend movement.

As a target I really like 1.3500 for a number of reasons including its strength as a SR, its position at roughly the mid point of the movement from 1.49XX-1.20xx and its status as a round number.

However this is probably the...

Excellent post Aaron. I also see many technicals now pointing to the upside, however, it goes against the fundamentals which is why most are confused. However, I have noticed that fundamentals do not have an "immediate" affect on currencies which is why I would rather lean towards the technical side the for Swing trading. Maybe if I didn't have a SL and was a position trader I would start building short positions and if price moved against me to let's say 1.35 or so it wouldn't affect me as I would be prepared for this draw down.

However, as a Swing trader I would rather bank the few hundred pips up and then ride it back down when my charts tell me to do so. On top of that, I don't see any major "market crash" before the end of the year which is also why I am leaning towards the upside at this time.

Another problem is the large amount of retail traders who are short EUR/USD. They need to be kicked out first with some sort of squeeze. When everybody says SELL I buy...

1.3122 is still my short term target for EUR/USD where it will form a triple top. I will see how price actiion reacts at that point. Still not long or short EUR/USD though. Playing other pairs that are more "predictable" and profitable for me...
  • #61,562
  • Nov 26, 2012 8:16pm Nov 26, 2012 8:16pm
thank you all for sharing your useful thoughts.
you're correct, in technical view, eur can go higher.
these fundamental news always confuse me so better to trust to technical analysis.
it seems this fall is a normal retracement, and we will have range market today. here is 6am
lets see
  • #61,563
  • Nov 26, 2012 8:16pm Nov 26, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting AaronWard
Reading the pundits, about 80% that think the Euro is going down. However, it is entirely possible that the Euro could go to 1.32 or 1.35 in the next few weeks. In my opinion the bullish technical arguments for further upside are stronger. However I am going with fundamentals and am short.
I totally agree with the 1.32 - 1.35 targets being reached before the next major move down, I'm forecasting this to happen sometime in December. Still won't short EUR/USD yet!

JPY cross pairs are providing some solid opportunities at the moment so I would personally rather stick with the cross pairs at the moment.
  • #61,564
  • Nov 26, 2012 8:45pm Nov 26, 2012 8:45pm
EUR/USD Technical Indicators

1st Chart - Hourly
2nd Chart - Daily
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - Hourly.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - Daily.png Size: 41 KB
  • #61,565
  • Nov 26, 2012 8:49pm Nov 26, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I totally agree with the 1.32 - 1.35 targets being reached before the next major move down, I'm forecasting this to happen sometime in December. Still won't short EUR/USD yet!

JPY cross pairs are providing some solid opportunities at the moment so I would personally rather stick with the cross pairs at the moment.
Yeah I have a couple of yen crosses going. About 10 days ago I decided that I should take some long term positions in them as there was considerable upside and didn't seem to be that much downside with the BOJ fighting tooth and nail. You know how that worked out.

As regards the euro, I am comfortable going short because it seems pretty straightforward that sooner or later something bad is going to happen and the euro will crash some more. Currencies have a tendency to follow long term trends of say 10 years or so which is just about how long I think it will take the Eurozone to resolve its various issues. Going long though... don't have the nerve for it. Except for the eur/chf which has been my most consistently profitable trade.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #61,566
  • Nov 26, 2012 8:54pm Nov 26, 2012 8:54pm
Quoting AaronWard
Yeah I have a couple of yen crosses going. About 10 days ago I decided that I should take some long term positions in them as there was considerable upside and didn't seem to be that much downside with the BOJ fighting tooth and nail. You know how that worked out.

As regards the euro, I am comfortable going short because it seems pretty straightforward that sooner or later something bad is going to happen and the euro will crash some more. Currencies have a tendency to follow long term trends of say 10 years or so which is just about how...
Nice!

How do you trade EUR/CHF? I've never looked into that particular pair. Didn't know if moved that much due to the peg...
  • #61,567
  • Nov 26, 2012 9:00pm Nov 26, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Nice!

How do you trade EUR/CHF? I've never looked into that particular pair. Didn't know if moved that much due to the peg...
large leverage. I start taking positions at about 1.2050 and they get bigger every ten pips down. I take two positions, one aiming for 1.2090 and another aiming for a gain of just 10 pips. I have been doing this consistently since the first day of the peg. Pretty boring but really profitable. Perhaps doubled my account on this trade alone in the last 14 months. I keep a really close eye on the SNB discussion and on the CPI. They can and will hold the peg until inflation becomes a problem.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #61,568
  • Nov 27, 2012 12:28am Nov 27, 2012 12:28am
1.3005 has been achieved.

Important levels seem to be the following ones: 1.3020, 1.3000, 1.297x, 1.2940.

It's not clear which direction it may choose to go at the moment.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.PNG Size: 56 KB


Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Thanks.
  • #61,569
  • Nov 27, 2012 1:08am Nov 27, 2012 1:08am
Major resistance is 1.3040 - 62.
  • #61,570
  • Nov 27, 2012 1:45am Nov 27, 2012 1:45am
Quoting Likerty
Looking at the next sweet spots at roundabouts of 1.3009 and 1.3033
Nice..
69
  • #61,571
  • Nov 27, 2012 3:09am Nov 27, 2012 3:09am
For further movement down I look at these intraday levels: cluster at 2966/62 and 2947/40
69
  • #61,572
  • Nov 27, 2012 3:53am Nov 27, 2012 3:53am
Quoting Likerty
For further movement down I look at these intraday levels: cluster at 2966/62 and 2947/40
Without PT's morning update, sellers don't feel for selling. No catalyst present.
  • #61,573
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:13am Nov 27, 2012 4:13am
Quoting rekon67
Without PT's morning update, sellers don't feel for selling. No catalyst present.
Its mvoing, its moving.. One step at the time - Hourly is red all over..
69
  • #61,574
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:29am Nov 27, 2012 4:29am
Quoting 100PipsADay
EUR/USD Technical Indicators

1st Chart - Hourly
2nd Chart - Daily
Morning HP. Check out what JK has to say

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #61,575
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:30am Nov 27, 2012 4:30am
Quoting rekon67
Without PT's morning update, sellers don't feel for selling. No catalyst present.
I've been saying for the last several days... "Sell the rallies". What more do you need?

Add: Tomorrow I will resume my morning updates.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #61,576
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:33am Nov 27, 2012 4:33am
Quoting Likerty
Its mvoing, its moving.. One step at the time - Hourly is red all over..



facing some bandwidth issue in the office, may be somebody downloading something.
  • #61,577
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:34am Nov 27, 2012 4:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
I've been saying for the last several days... "Sell the rallies". What more do you need?

Add: Tomorrow I will resume my morning updates.
Everyday on Morning Update
  • #61,578
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:43am Nov 27, 2012 4:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
Morning HP. Check out what JK has to say

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46kMaWyjtX0
guy is clearly suffering from muddy waters and a bearish bias. Just like me.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #61,579
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:48am Nov 27, 2012 4:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
Morning HP. Check out what JK has to say

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46kMaWyjtX0
Good Morning PT.

Just took a look at the video clip, personally still not quite convinced that we will see the downfall of the EUR though YET. There has been a pretty heavy Bearish bias for the past 6 months straight even when we rallied 1000 pips to the upside...

I'm still sticking by my "end of the year" forecast before shorting any of the majors. Obviously I will keep an eye on Price Action though in the mean time. Thanks for sharing PT!
  • #61,580
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:50am Nov 27, 2012 4:50am
OECD Statement:

- Sees Risk of Fresh Contraction in Global Economy.
- Additional Monetary Policy Easing Needed in Euro Zone, Japan, China, India.
- Policy Action Urgent To Avert Risks To Global Economy.
- ECB Should Cut Rates, Be Ready For Additional Measures.
- Fed's Policy Appropriate; Can Do More If Econ Worsens.
- Spain To Miss Deficit Targets But Should Not Cut More.
- Sees Germany 2012 GDP +0.8%; +0.5% 2013; +1.9% 2014.
- Weak Growth In Italy Could Mean More Austerity In 2014.
- Portugal's Economy Seen Shrinking Until H2 2013.
- Ireland To Grow Slowly; Needs Progress On Euro Crisis.
- France To Overshoot Deficit Targets Due To Weak Growth.

OECD GDP 2013 Forecasts:

- World GDP down to 3.4% from 4.2%
- OECD Area down to 1.4% from 2.2%
- US down to 2.0% from 2.6%
- Eurozone down to -0.1% from +0.9%
- Germany down to 0.6% from 2.0%
- France down to 0.3% from 1.3%
- China down to 8.5% from 9.3%
- Japan down to 0.7% from 1.5%

All in all, it's looking something like this....

http://www.mspmentor.net/wp-content/...tock-chart.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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