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  • Post #381
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  • Nov 5, 2012 11:50am Nov 5, 2012 11:50am
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
Quoting Skynet
Disliked
well...update...still 3hours into the market open....ED is getting hammered...broke below $59 and now testing $58.00....roughly dropped 4% in 3 days....anyways, we will see how hard it falls more....if it retraces to touch $59.20 area, i will short it.

chart update attached:
Ignored
Yeah the stock has sold off, but what I dont like about this sell off is that it occurred during the first 10 mins of the day. the stock has been holding its own ever since, it hasn't been trending down intraday. Maybe after lunch we get another push down when volume increases again, if it doesnt sell off and opens lower tomorrow, it would make me really careful.

P.S. I am not in this, just my 2 cents
 
 
  • Post #382
  • Quote
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:40am Nov 6, 2012 4:40am
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
More on Joel Greenblatt, here's an interview with him.
 
 
  • Post #383
  • Quote
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:44am Nov 6, 2012 7:44am
  •  Skynet
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: Hunter / Killer | 849 Posts
Quoting split_unit
Disliked
More on Joel Greenblatt, here's an interview with him.
Ignored

thank you, reading it now.....i am sure it is going to be insightful....


Quoting split_unit
Disliked
Yeah the stock has sold off, but what I dont like about this sell off is that it occurred during the first 10 mins of the day. the stock has been holding its own ever since, it hasn't been trending down intraday. Maybe after lunch we get another push down when volume increases again, if it doesnt sell off and opens lower tomorrow, it would make me really careful.

P.S. I am not in this, just my 2 cents
Ignored

indeed...all i can do is wait....
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
 
 
  • Post #384
  • Quote
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:56am Nov 6, 2012 8:56am
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
Across the board, I am getting negative vibes, some bloggers are swearing by Obama and some by Romney. At this point the market seems like its waiting for who will be president next.

The most interesting chart in front of me right now is the EUR/USD. A failed breakdown above the 200 SMA, this thing could mean revert.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2012-11-06_1753_EUR_USD.png
Size: 115 KB
 
 
  • Post #385
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  • Nov 6, 2012 4:35pm Nov 6, 2012 4:35pm
  •  Skynet
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: Hunter / Killer | 849 Posts
Quoting split_unit
Disliked
Across the board, I am getting negative vibes, some bloggers are swearing by Obama and some by Romney. At this point the market seems like its waiting for who will be president next.

The most interesting chart in front of me right now is the EUR/USD. A failed breakdown above the 200 SMA, this thing could mean revert.
Ignored
it has been quite indecisive lately...waiting for the result of the election, i presume. 1.2800 is holding strong....for now. election results today...and usa unemployment claims/euro minimum bid rate on thursday could snap it.

i am not sure to what extent greek vote on wednesday will make a difference to the EURO...everybody knows it is going to pass. i think it is already factored in.


Quoting split_unit
Disliked
Yeah the stock has sold off, but what I dont like about this sell off is that it occurred during the first 10 mins of the day. the stock has been holding its own ever since, it hasn't been trending down intraday. Maybe after lunch we get another push down when volume increases again, if it doesnt sell off and opens lower tomorrow, it would make me really careful.

P.S. I am not in this, just my 2 cents
Ignored
ED gap up today...i was hoping the gap up will get to my expected $59.20 so that i can short the stock...unfortunately, it didnt.
Quoting Skynet
Disliked
....if it retraces to touch $59.20 area, i will short it.
.......
Ignored
.....anyways, it retraces and close below the $58.00...assaulted that $58.00 level a couple of times before failing and closing below it at $57.76.

charts attached

P.S. my other concern is that ED may bounce tomorrow due to it reaching a technical support level($57.60)
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2012-11-06_16-21_ED Basic Chart.jpg
Size: 43 KB Click to Enlarge

Name: 2012-11-06_16-23_ED Basic Chart.jpg
Size: 51 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
 
 
  • Post #386
  • Quote
  • Nov 7, 2012 2:35am Nov 7, 2012 2:35am
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
Quoting Skynet
Disliked
it has been quite indecisive lately...waiting for the result of the election, i presume. 1.2800 is holding strong....for now. election results today...and usa unemployment claims/euro minimum bid rate on thursday could snap it.

i am not sure to what extent greek vote on wednesday will make a difference to the EURO...everybody knows it is going to pass. i think it is already factored in.




ED gap up today...i was hoping the gap up will get to my expected $59.20 so that i can short the stock...unfortunately, it didnt. .....anyways,...
Ignored
The EUR/USD affect on US equities have broken down lately mostly due to lower correlations between asset classes in low volatility environments. If volatility were to crawl back then expect correlations to re-emerge.

As for ED, shorting it now for me is a low probability trade, waiting for a pullback like you suggested seems best at this point.
 
 
  • Post #387
  • Quote
  • Nov 7, 2012 2:48am Nov 7, 2012 2:48am
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
As a follow up to my post on the EUR/USD yesterday, the pair rallied and looks set to continue rallying today after Obama's win. The IYR (Dow Jones Transportation ETF) chart below also looks bullish as it could finally break above its resistance trend line and head higher. The other chart is of EEM (Emerging Market ETF), which also looks like its set to take out resistance and head higher. If these three instruments rally together, we could get a global equity strength.
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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Name: eurusd2.png
Size: 205 KB Click to Enlarge

Name: eem.png
Size: 238 KB Click to Enlarge

Name: IYT.png
Size: 255 KB
 
 
  • Post #388
  • Quote
  • Nov 7, 2012 3:57pm Nov 7, 2012 3:57pm
  •  Skynet
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: Hunter / Killer | 849 Posts
Quoting split_unit
Disliked
The EUR/USD affect on US equities have broken down lately mostly due to lower correlations between asset classes in low volatility environments. If volatility were to crawl back then expect correlations to re-emerge. .....
Ignored
my hypothesis is that it is due to the election...now that the election is over...i will expect volatility to come back....on EUR/USD....before
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1352075400

and after:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1352292676

Quoting split_unit
Disliked
As for ED, shorting it now for me is a low probability trade, waiting for a pullback like you suggested seems best at this point.
Ignored
ED is being a short monster... completely destroyed the support at 57.60 with a gap lower...what a beast....at this point...i am not sure any short opportunities remain....i was hesistant to short it when it went to retest the 60.80 level...hoping for a break and retest of the 59.20 level(being more conservative)...oh well...you miss opportunities..moving on....
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2012-11-07_15-50_Consolidated Edison, Inc.jpg
Size: 52 KB Click to Enlarge

Name: 2012-11-07_15-51_Consolidated Edison, Inc.jpg
Size: 46 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
 
 
  • Post #389
  • Quote
  • Nov 7, 2012 4:05pm Nov 7, 2012 4:05pm
  •  Skynet
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: Hunter / Killer | 849 Posts
Quoting split_unit
Disliked
As a follow up to my post on the EUR/USD yesterday, the pair rallied and looks set to continue rallying today after Obama's win. The IYR (Dow Jones Transportation ETF) chart below also looks bullish as it could finally break above its resistance trend line and head higher. The other chart is of EEM (Emerging Market ETF), which also looks like its set to take out resistance and head higher. If these three instruments rally together, we could get a global equity strength.
Ignored

i like what i am seeing...if there is a breakout...definitely. thanks for pointing this in my direction.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
 
 
  • Post #390
  • Quote
  • Nov 11, 2012 12:39pm Nov 11, 2012 12:39pm
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
Quoting Skynet
Disliked
i like what i am seeing...if there is a breakout...definitely. thanks for pointing this in my direction.
Ignored

lol almost all what you saw closed below their key levels. Things don't look so good as of Friday's close, it's a 50/50 bet from here on, and I don't like those odds. I prefer to sit by the sidelines waiting for when r/r returns to be in my favor
 
 
  • Post #391
  • Quote
  • Nov 11, 2012 9:47pm Nov 11, 2012 9:47pm
  •  Skynet
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: Hunter / Killer | 849 Posts
i will post some stuff later during the week.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
 
 
  • Post #392
  • Quote
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:09pm Nov 11, 2012 10:09pm
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
Quoting Skynet
Disliked
i will post some stuff later during the week.
Ignored
I will be very busy this week, but I should find some tome to post as well
 
 
  • Post #393
  • Quote
  • Nov 13, 2012 10:11am Nov 13, 2012 10:11am
  •  Skynet
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: Hunter / Killer | 849 Posts
Quoting Skynet
Disliked
ones that i like their fundie and techie

i know the fundie of some of these may look bad at first blush...but what i look for is the TREND in fundie data....are things trending better and better....if negative...it is going from worst to worse to bad to good.....i focus a lot on cash flow, debt to equity, growth, and supporting macro view, catalyst, leading industry. This may sound strange, but the TREND of fundie data is a little bit more important to me than the actual fundie data... and most of the time, i ignore P/E ratios...

TREX. fundie,...
Ignored
MHk has been triggered....trade entered at $84.00 as illustrated in previous chart. Taking some off the table at $88.00.

previoius chart is here
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1351977632

update chart.
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2012-11-13_10-07_FreeStockChar.jpg
Size: 44 KB Click to Enlarge

Name: 2012-11-13_10-10_MHK Basic Chart.jpg
Size: 42 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
 
 
  • Post #394
  • Quote
  • Nov 13, 2012 10:21am Nov 13, 2012 10:21am
  •  Skynet
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: Hunter / Killer | 849 Posts
Quoting Skynet
Disliked
......,
AOS,
Ignored
unfortunately, it didnt dipped enough to give me an entry: I was hoping for some nibbling at 58.50...and a full course meal at 58.00...it didnt give me that opportunity before bouncing back to 61.50 area. oh well. at least, i am in MHK.

previous:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1351977632

update:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2012-11-13_10-17_FreeStockCharts.com.jpg
Size: 44 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
 
 
  • Post #395
  • Quote
  • Nov 14, 2012 12:50am Nov 14, 2012 12:50am
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
Quoting Skynet
Disliked
MHk has been triggered....trade entered at $84.00 as illustrated in previous chart. Taking some off the table at $88.00.

previoius chart is here
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1351977632

update chart.
Ignored
Cool stuff, thanks for sharing. I like the industry your generating ideas from
 
 
  • Post #396
  • Quote
  • Nov 23, 2012 1:25pm Nov 23, 2012 1:25pm
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
Quoting split_unit
Disliked
My next idea is to long RIMM the 'Blackberry' manufacturer, anyone following how I trade knows that I look at my trades from several angles. Lets assess RIMM.

Technical

1- Excellent technical base setup at $8.50.

2- Climatic high volume on a down day on the 28th of September with 140 million shares being traded, needless to say, the stock DIDN'T follow through to the down side.

3- Long term trendline about to be taken out.

Fundamental

1- Book value per share at $18.14 which is more than DOUBLE the stock price, so...
Ignored
A while ago back when I wrote about RIMM back when it was at 7.83 on why I strongly believed it was going higher, it is currently at 11.66 which is 32.8% increase (not a fibonacci number). I did my analysis on all fronts and wrote about it publicly here cause I had CONVICTION, it allowed me to hold the trade and it performed very well. Proper analysis is the only way to obtain above average returns, and that happens only through practice and knowledge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2012-11-23_2210_RIMM.png
Size: 247 KB
 
 
  • Post #397
  • Quote
  • Nov 25, 2012 11:35am Nov 25, 2012 11:35am
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
Quoting split_unit
Disliked
A while ago back when I wrote about RIMM back when it was at 7.83 on why I strongly believed it was going higher, it is currently at 11.66 which is 32.8% increase (not a fibonacci number). I did my analysis on all fronts and wrote about it publicly here cause I had CONVICTION, it allowed me to hold the trade and it performed very well. Proper analysis is the only way to obtain above average returns, and that happens only through practice and knowledge.
Ignored
Another look at the post above and I feel like it was arrogant of me to write what I wrote, it is important to remain humble in this business, I got a call right and that is all it was, I am susceptible like any other trader to being wrong, and I have no problem admitting that I am wrong most of the time. I only write here to keep myself accountable to my favorite ideas and not to prove that I was right.
 
 
  • Post #398
  • Quote
  • Nov 26, 2012 8:04pm Nov 26, 2012 8:04pm
  •  gregofx
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 92 Posts
I don't think you were arrogant in your last post, in fact I find it was a good message you wrote: "Proper analysis is the only way to obtain above average returns, and that happens only through practice and knowledge".

You're a generous man who share his knowledge with us. Feel proud of that, because it speaks highly of you. Good work!!!

Greg.


Quoting split_unit
Disliked
Another look at the post above and I feel like it was arrogant of me to write what I wrote, it is important to remain humble in this business, I got a call right and that is all it was, I am susceptible like any other trader to being wrong, and I have no problem admitting that I am wrong most of the time. I only write here to keep myself accountable to my favorite ideas and not to prove that I was right.
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #399
  • Quote
  • Nov 27, 2012 2:11am Nov 27, 2012 2:11am
  •  split_unit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 709 Posts
Quoting split_unit
Disliked
Another look at the post above and I feel like it was arrogant of me to write what I wrote, it is important to remain humble in this business, I got a call right and that is all it was, I am susceptible like any other trader to being wrong, and I have no problem admitting that I am wrong most of the time. I only write here to keep myself accountable to my favorite ideas and not to prove that I was right.
Ignored
Thanks Greg! Much appreciated , here's a must read on RIMM the blackberry manufacturer if you have been following the situation with me. Sentiment is shifting on the stock, people are writing positive stuff and that should add fuel to the fire.
 
 
  • Post #400
  • Quote
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:10pm Nov 30, 2012 3:10pm
  •  gregofx
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 92 Posts
Hi Split, I am following NTFL. Technically it has a good base to go upwards, and I think also that has very good fundamentals. Please could you give me your opinion?

Thank you.

Greg.
 
 
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