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  • #722,321
  • Nov 26, 2012 12:58pm Nov 26, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting Stretch
I prefer a H1 close over 0455.8 in 15 min. to keep my small boring Long.
What are you seeing Attila?
(my chart is here)

That W pattern should be at the bottom of a move.. I'm always watching these misplaced occurrences.. If and when they fail, they're very juicy..

u/cad is in a bear flag channel seems like but it's crawling back inside.. So I would not long yuro here, that's pretty much the bottom line..
  • #722,322
  • Nov 26, 2012 12:59pm Nov 26, 2012 12:59pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
I dont know what that chart shows, but if I wanted to know the best estimate of which pairs are going to move, I would take a look at short term implied volatility...those option boys will give you the best guess..
Where is the best place to look for short-term implied volatility?
Thanks in advance!
  • #722,323
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:01pm Nov 26, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting attila
aussie h4...

Attachment
Hello Attila...just back from a long nap...

Over the weekend, I had an upside target of 1.3036 -- Today's PA and pattern so far also targets 1.30363..

The ADR top is at 1.3027 - 1.3030 also...

I see this area as a place to slap it back down a couple of hundred or so..

Watching 2955 to see how it reacts at that level ...

P.S. Hope I'm not looking at this chart upside down!
  • #722,324
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:01pm Nov 26, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting attila
So I would not long yuro here, that's pretty much the bottom line..
Even if I'm long right now, I agree with that. The end is near for the bulls on that cycle.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #722,325
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:03pm Nov 26, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting BlueCirrus
Hello Attila...just back from a long nap...

Over the weekend, I had an upside target of 1.3036 -- Today's PA and pattern so far also targets 1.30363..

The ADR top is at 1.3027 - 1.3030 also...

I see this area as a place to slap it back down a couple of hundred or so..

Watching 2955 to see how it reacts at that level ...

P.S. Hope I'm not looking at this chart upside down!
according to gator (and I agree with that) if it turns around here we're looking 500 pips in the abyss.. So all we have to do is watch what it does..
  • #722,326
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:05pm Nov 26, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting attila
according to gator (and I agree with that) if it turns around here we're looking 500 pips in the abyss.. So all we have to do is watch what it does..
SWOON!
Not all sins are created equal
  • #722,327
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:06pm Nov 26, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting attila
That W pattern should be at the bottom of a move.. I'm always watching these misplaced occurrences.. If and when they fail, they're very juicy..

u/cad is in a bear flag channel seems like but it's crawling back inside.. So I would not long yuro here, that's pretty much the bottom line..
I agree with you there too. Not really a good place to long euro. I am out of my aussie Long now too. 6hours of nothing really lol. Glad I wasn't stuck to the screen all the time

And what do you mean with the bottom of a move? You mean we are still in a range at the top of the move, that's what you mean right? You rather have such a W pattern at the start of the move?
  • #722,328
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:08pm Nov 26, 2012 1:08pm
Quoting Stretch
I agree with you there too. Not really a good place to long euro. I am out of my aussie Long now too. 6hours of nothing really lol. Glad I wasn't stuck to the screen all the time

And what do you mean with the bottom of a move? You mean we are still in a range at the top of the move, that's what you mean right? You rather have such a W pattern at the bottom.
yeah, that's a reversal pattern but it should be at the bottom. It's at the top.. Take a look at yuro daily sept-oct. You'll see it there as well..
  • #722,329
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:09pm Nov 26, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting attila
according to gator (and I agree with that) if it turns around here we're looking 500 pips in the abyss.. So all we have to do is watch what it does..

Yeah, I know Gator is looking for a 2-to-1 swing off of 3171...Not sure about that yet though...
  • #722,330
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:10pm Nov 26, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting attila
yeah, that's a reversal pattern but it should be at the bottom. It's at the top.. Take a look at yuro daily sept-oct. You'll see it there as well..
See what you mean. That turned out like the Bat-signal. Thanks Attila, learned another thing how to look at things.
  • #722,331
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:14pm Nov 26, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Stretch
See what you mean. That turned out like the Bat-signal. Thanks Attila, learned another thing how to look at things.

Bearish signal failing at the bottom.. That one's a little different.. It drops, retraces with an arc then back down, but it fails to make a LL.. When that one fails it reverses like a mofu..
  • #722,332
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:17pm Nov 26, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting attila
Bearish signal failing at the bottom.. That one's a little different.. It drops, retraces with an arc then back down, but it fails to make a LL.. When that one fails it reverses like a mofu..
Attila, I notice it fails to make higher high also, so a triangle is being formed which says a break out is imminent on either side.
Intraday only.
  • #722,333
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:18pm Nov 26, 2012 1:18pm
9 h's later and nothing.. glad i slept.. we are atm breaking the lower tl of reversal wedge.... what i dont like about it is, we never hit the upper 3 times yet.. anyway it may touch 2964 now and fall... at 2962 atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #722,334
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:19pm Nov 26, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting navk
Attila, I notice it fails to make higher high also, so a triangle is being formed which says a break out is imminent on either side.
You're coming around to my words.. I told you there is a 100% certainty it'll break out of this range..Which way? No idea..
  • #722,335
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:24pm Nov 26, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting attila
You're coming around to my words.. I told you there is a 100% certainty it'll break out of this range..Which way? No idea..
In 4 hr chart, I see increasing signs of weakness.

Which means downside is favored though a false break out to up side is not ruled out.
Intraday only.
  • #722,336
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:25pm Nov 26, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting tomspin
simple answer, don't trade monday/friday, month end, year end and holidays - you won't try to find answer for unimportant questions
good luck
ps and change your broker(don't ask me which one) 1.5 pips on eur/usd is pure theft.
Monday:
they will try to hedge the Friday movement, or if it was normal, than they will make position to enter in trade Tuesday. Tuesday NY evening everybody in position who want to be.
Tuesday: smaller-medium push
Wednesday: correction
Thursday: push
Friday: profit taking, push, inverse push.

Month end? - why not, is like Friday: profit taking? or important news releases. For me it is a trade day. Well, the close price of the month it will be a significant price for 1 month, thats why they are going to push somewhere.

From dec 15-jan15 ( Xmas ) and August should be a well deserved Holliday: you have stressed enough in the other 10 months of the year, time to make better, upkeep the relationships, anyway trading is slowly, tricky and less volatile.
Bank Holliday days: need to watch the trade, if you want to trade, can't be done offline mode, because can be manipulated, same this true on the other 2 Holliday months. Just check the trade explorers: how many had loses in August! - can be traded, but in different style.

Oanda: has the theoretically 0.9 PIP, sometimes 1.2 at EUR/USD. Still Horrible platform, buggy mobile apps with missing basic features.

Dukascopy: - if you have less than 5000 usd, than you will have the spread around 0.6-1.2 PIP, plus the commission, which amount if is converted to spread: it is 1.2 PIP, so total 2-3 PIP + fill up commission (partner bank takes 1.8%) + overnight rate commission + who knows what commission...but software are ok. It can be improved ( I did ) but they are ok. For me the problem it is at weekend they need higher margin ( less leverage allowed) and if exactly at Friday I took a little bit over leveraged to position than I am screwed up...

FXCM: doesn't offer anything in plus for double - triple spread as in Oanda, but nice charts , which are running on windows... beside I can't trust they for a reason...they are good to use the demo account for charts, if you have M$Window$$$.

I do prefer to change my broker to an expensieve one, who doesn't make virtual spikes: at Oanda wasn't but at MT4 based broker has once a 170 pip spike, which wasn't at any other broker ( FXPro or Aplari, not sure which one) that spike it is just can wipe my account or hit my SL-es and a couple of month of work has gone.

And there are the countless thief, which bought a www domain and they call themselves "broker".
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #722,337
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:28pm Nov 26, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting kokopelli
Where is the best place to look for short-term implied volatility?
Thanks in advance!
good luck finding it, bastards..bloomberg has it, but they dont quote it on there website for free, you might be able to find it delayed on some option related site, I think the CME might have currency vol futures, will have to check, you could also use the CME option settlements to figure it if you where so inclined...but the bastards keep it to themselves mostly...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #722,338
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:30pm Nov 26, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
9 h's later and nothing.. glad i slept.. we are atm breaking the lower tl of reversal wedge.... what i dont like about it is, we never hit the upper 3 times yet.. anyway it may touch 2964 now and fall... at 2962 atm
looks like i am late.. i see now its been pointed out.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #722,339
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:30pm Nov 26, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
good luck finding it, bastards..bloomberg has it, but they dont quote it on there website for free, you might be able to find it delayed on some option related site, I think the CME might have currency vol futures, will have to check, you could also use the CME option settlements to figure it if you where so inclined...but the bastards keep it to themselves mostly...
bastards...
  • #722,340
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:30pm Nov 26, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
good luck finding it, bastards..bloomberg has it, but they dont quote it on there website for free, you might be able to find it delayed on some option related site, I think the CME might have currency vol futures, will have to check, you could also use the CME option settlements to figure it if you where so inclined...but the bastards keep it to themselves mostly...
I see option expiry figures in forexlive. This is the one you talk about ?
Intraday only.
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