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  • #721,741
  • Nov 25, 2012 12:29pm Nov 25, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting pkimnyc
I'm glad you brought it up. I like to see it instead of guessing. In other words, let the market tell me if the price is being rejected.
I get the feeling you may have read Trader_Dante's infamous thread; he is an advocate of waiting for a strong candlestick pattern to verify a trade. I agree with Trader_Dante but unfortunately my opportunity to monitor the price charts is limited with having a wage job to also deal with. BillyRayValentine does essentially the same thing in finding confluence zones, but he doesn't wait for the candlestick pattern and does pretty well for himself from what I can tell. I guess what I'm saying is that your advice seems quite sound to this novice trader, but it is a luxury for those with time constraints.
  • #721,742
  • Nov 25, 2012 12:35pm Nov 25, 2012 12:35pm
I see 1.3020 as next resistance, will be looking to short with a strong rejection of that. If not than we may easily see 1.3070
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  • #721,743
  • Nov 25, 2012 12:36pm Nov 25, 2012 12:36pm
Quoting Kanzler
I get the feeling you may have read Trader_Dante's infamous thread; he is an advocate of waiting for a strong candlestick pattern to verify a trade. I agree with Trader_Dante but unfortunately my opportunity to monitor the price charts is limited with having a wage job to also deal with. BillyRayValentine does essentially the same thing in finding confluence zones, but he doesn't wait for the candlestick pattern and does pretty well for himself from what I can tell. I guess what I'm saying is that your advice seems quite sound to this novice trader,...
It's not just candle formations. You need much more. If your day job is getting in the way of monitoring charts then you could wait until top formation is formed, let the initial move go, then get in at the second entry. Much easier and less painful then selling the rallies, IMO. You don't have to be in at the top or bottom.
  • #721,744
  • Nov 25, 2012 12:41pm Nov 25, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting pkimnyc
It's not just candle formations. You need much more. If your day job is getting in the way of monitoring charts then you could wait until top formation is formed, let the initial move go, then get in at the second entry. Much easier and less painful then selling the rallies, IMO.
At the risk of going slightly off topic, my worry with going in at a 'second entry' is that the resistance will give way due to it already being partially eaten up at the first go. This would probably work better if I were to do this at the pullback we last saw resistance from (the 'retracement bus' lol), especially given that most of us are in consensus that the trend will likely continue. I'm curious now, though - what do you mean by needing much more than the candlestick rejection (having already taken into account S/R and fib levels)? If this is deviating too much from the thread feel free to send me a PM, I'm very keen to hear your advice.
  • #721,745
  • Nov 25, 2012 12:46pm Nov 25, 2012 12:46pm
last week was a surprising week that ended with a bigger surprise
from my point of view,every thing was ready for a short rally toward 1.16 but this is forex market and you win just if you respect it's rules.
i preferred to have a weekly TF review
i think this week could be a just watching week(except scalpers in lower TF) for me at least in the beginning for new EU news to be released.
now we are near to a W1 TL and market is not in overbought area in this timeframe
possible moves are shown.
my personal hope is a bearish market duo to fundamental situation


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  • #721,746
  • Edited 1:47pm Nov 25, 2012 1:01pm | Edited 1:47pm
Quoting Kanzler
At the risk of going slightly off topic, my worry with going in at a 'second entry' is that the resistance will give way due to it already being partially eaten up at the first go. This would probably work better if I were to do this at the pullback we last saw resistance from (the 'retracement bus' lol), especially given that most of us are in consensus that the trend will likely continue. I'm curious now, though - what do you mean by needing much more than the candlestick rejection (having already taken into account S/R and fib levels)? If this...
you will have to do some homework on that subject of "second entry." many ways to skin a cat. personally, the "second entry" is when you can apply the system of trading.

regarding on the subject of candlestick:

candle stick alone will not tell you if the market will reverse. most major tops and bottoms do not form in a single day. you need to understand 'top and bottom formations' alone with momentum reading behind the price moves.

ex. market makes a parabolic move. then a reversal candle forms. how reliable do you think that candle is? what do you think the momentum is telling you on that price move? if the momentum is strong then what are the chances of that single candle stick is going to reverse the price?

you need to be able to answer all these questions before you make a trade, imo.

again, major tops and bottoms are not easy. it's much complicated to rely on candle formation alone. market really do test your patients at those stages.

look at george soros. does he sell all rallies or buy all dips hoping that the market will turn? i doubt it. he waits until the market (price) tells him the sentiment has turned towards his fundamental outlook. in other words, even for him, he is not at the very top or bottom.
  • #721,747
  • Nov 25, 2012 1:33pm Nov 25, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Yeah, I think this is where Gator comes in with his target of 1.2432. Like I said, big drop.
That's about the same level it was at back at the tailend of August. It's big, granted but on the grand scheme of things, not that big.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #721,748
  • Nov 25, 2012 1:36pm Nov 25, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting Tsar
Your estimate...
When it stops going up, I'll get out of my long and go short until it stops going down. Repeat the cycle over and over.

I don't predict, some here are far more talented at this than I am. I just react.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #721,749
  • Nov 25, 2012 1:43pm Nov 25, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting Nobitacu
Yea... there are some who will never change their way until they've learned it from the worst experience one can have trading the market before finally righting their ship, and that would be the great margin call.

From what I've read... this guy is down around 225 pips, and with next 150 pips move he will be called. He's playing with 5 lots.... No proper MM used, no SL. All of the very basics of the basics on trade knowledge to master before even attempting to place the first live trade was ignored...

So...

50x225 = $11,250
50x375 =...
I partially agree with that. Do the opposite and use proper MM.

It's one thing to help people and I do try the best I can to do that. But there are some people out there that sadly, cannot be helped until after they hit rock bottom.

I hope buddy here is using money he can afford to lose and that none of his cherished ones will suffer because of his inevitable loss.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #721,750
  • Nov 25, 2012 1:49pm Nov 25, 2012 1:49pm
In my opinion, Money management is always the key to success in forex
Of cause not the fixed or 3% or 5% , Just any that You will feel fine on it.
So...hope no quarrel and green pip to all...
FEEl boring so post sth while waiting market to open
  • #721,751
  • Nov 25, 2012 1:55pm Nov 25, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting pkimnyc
you will have to do some homework on that subject of "second entry." many ways to skin a cat. personally, the "second entry" is when you can apply the system of trading.

regarding on the subject of candlestick:

candle stick alone will not tell you if the market will reverse. most major tops and bottoms do not form in a single day. you need to understand 'top and bottom formations' alone with momentum reading behind the price moves.

ex. market makes a parabolic move. then a reversal candle forms. how reliable do you think that candle is?...
Agreed, but I'm not necessarily looking to find the ultimate top to this trend; pulling a scalp off of this level is my current goal and trailing to see what the market does. If price manages to bust through previous support after bouncing, then maybe there's something more to it. If it bounces at all I expect it to rebound at support though which is where I'll be setting my take profit. Determining whether or not this is going to be where the Euro turns is something none of us will really know until long after the fact unfortunately, I'm simply trying to use the likely resistance at this level to generate some small return on my risk.

Quote
look at george soros. does he sell all rallies or buy all dips hoping that the market will turn? i doubt it. he waits until the market (price) tells him the sentiment has turned towards his fundamental outlook. in other words, even for him, he is not at the very top or bottom.

Not trying to be fresh, but I don't put much stock in George Soros given he lost all of his money not long after he won it. He probably makes a lot more money in his elite ivory tower position than he would from trading like most of us do.
  • #721,752
  • Nov 25, 2012 1:58pm Nov 25, 2012 1:58pm
This move on the daily gonna have to find support , if its planning to move further up ... ! So, since i will not be around or able to follow everything : I will leave few long pending orders at :

Buy 1.29250 - SL 1.29150
Buy 1.28800 - SL 1.28700
Buy 1.28600 -SL 1.28490
Buy 1.28250-SL 1.28150

Good luck and trade safe
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #721,753
  • Nov 25, 2012 2:04pm Nov 25, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting Jay Walker
When it stops going up, I'll get out of my long and go short until it stops going down. Repeat the cycle over and over.

I don't predict, some here are far more talented at this than I am. I just react.
IMO that is working well when market has low volatility

lets say that from 1.2960 goes to 1.2830 in few hours, and then again in few hours is back to 1.2960
that will confuse you. one time it will happen to confuse you.

I remember I was short 2lots SP500 before US elections
about at 1425 it goes 1410 and I dont close, it goes back 1430 and I dont panic and sell again
and then collapse to 1400 (which i closed first) and 1390 which I closed second
all those very fast, with high volatility

What is the meaning? That what it worked well one time it will not work well another time.
My strategy is not so vulnerable to high volatility. Your is.
But your strategy works much better in low volatility than mine.
  • #721,754
  • Nov 25, 2012 2:06pm Nov 25, 2012 2:06pm
Quoting Kanzler
Agreed, but I'm not necessarily looking to find the ultimate top to this trend; pulling a scalp off of this level is my current goal and trailing to see what the market does. If price manages to bust through previous support after bouncing, then maybe there's something more to it. If it bounces at all I expect it to rebound at support though which is where I'll be setting my take profit. Determining whether or not this is going to be where the Euro turns is something none of us will really know until long after the fact unfortunately, [b]I'm simply...
like i said, many ways to skin a cat. great if it works for you.
  • #721,755
  • Nov 25, 2012 2:18pm Nov 25, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting PokerPlayer
I'm loving the 4hr and daily charts up to 1.2963
I don't post very often but this shout for 100 pip gain must be at least worth a vouch from some kind soul ?

I hope you agreed with me and booked some profit on this

Good vibes to all in this endeavour
  • #721,756
  • Nov 25, 2012 2:37pm Nov 25, 2012 2:37pm
@rockon1122 I said il come back after few mins on Friday night - I did but there was no answer for a while so i went to bed, saw your Reply and i thank you!!
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #721,757
  • Nov 25, 2012 2:38pm Nov 25, 2012 2:38pm
Good Evening guys, hope you all had a good WE, EU right now 10 pips down from friday close
Attached Image
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #721,758
  • Nov 25, 2012 2:40pm Nov 25, 2012 2:40pm
Quoting Purple
I have posted my POUND analysis for those who are interested here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post6229053
THANK YOU for tha V !!
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #721,759
  • Nov 25, 2012 2:44pm Nov 25, 2012 2:44pm
trends are not just direction.[/quote][quote=gatorinla;6228091]
Read your posts over the week & WE Amazing - the way you look at things! -I’m learning. Thanks
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #721,760
  • Nov 25, 2012 3:02pm Nov 25, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting trader_fx1
IMO that is working well when market has low volatility
Yes. And how to manage volatility better? Higher time frames.


Quoting trader_fx1
What is the meaning? That what it worked well one time it will not work well another time.
My strategy is not so vulnerable to high volatility. Your is.
But your strategy works much better in low volatility than mine.
I'm not disagreeing with you. That's why proper money management is key. When the volatility is higher, at least I live to trade another day even if I get kicked in the teeth sometimes.
Not all sins are created equal
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