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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #61,421
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:20am Nov 23, 2012 10:20am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I would rather ride the move up 1,000 pips, get out, then ride it back down...
Ditto
Student of the Markets
  • #61,422
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:21am Nov 23, 2012 10:21am
Quoting 100PipsADay

I would rather ride the move up 1,000 pips, get out, then ride it back down...
That sounds like a nice ride
  • #61,423
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:22am Nov 23, 2012 10:22am
Squeeeeeeeeeezzeeeeee of a lifetime...
  • #61,424
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:28am Nov 23, 2012 10:28am
Stepped out to pick up my car from the dealer. While I was there I approved some future upgrades and asked them to order the parts, all the while thinking I would be coming back to see my 1.2941 short in good solid profit. Instead I see price decided to visit the last bastion of resistance at 1.2966 instead. Grrrrr. Oh well. At least now we can say that the inverted H/S pattern I identified on the H4 chart last week has been completed and neutralized. Now there's no excuse for the double top pattern on the daily to not complete itself in the next couple of weeks. Just pick your colour. Red or Orange?

E/U H4 (Inverted H/S):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 36 KB


E/U Daily (Double Top):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d1.gif Size: 35 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #61,425
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:30am Nov 23, 2012 10:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
Just pick your colour. Red or Orange?.
Red, please.
Student of the Markets
  • #61,426
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:35am Nov 23, 2012 10:35am
Quoting dchristi
Red, please.
Yeah.. Me too.

Okay, I'm off to enjoy my weekend. Have fun all. Back on Monday.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #61,427
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:48am Nov 23, 2012 10:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
Stepped out to pick up my car from the dealer. While I was there I approved some future upgrades and asked them to order the parts, all the while thinking I would be coming back to see my 1.2941 short in good solid profit. Instead I see price decided to visit the last bastion of resistance at 1.2966 instead. Grrrrr. Oh well. At least now we can say that the inverted H/S pattern I identified on the H4 chart last week has been completed and neutralized. Now there's no excuse for the double top pattern on the daily to not complete itself in the next...
  • #61,428
  • Nov 23, 2012 11:36am Nov 23, 2012 11:36am
Up almost 500 pips in the past 24 hours with JPY cross pairs!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY Cross Pairs.png Size: 70 KB
  • #61,429
  • Nov 23, 2012 11:56am Nov 23, 2012 11:56am
Quoting Ken A
I was lucky got a chance to build the longs from 100.xx for EUR/JPY last week and added more a long the way - on my live (total positions well over 40,000 pips).

I prefer E/J than U/J because the positive swap is 5x from U/J.

40,000 pips!!??

Damn you must be rich now...

Congratulations Ken!

I prefer ANY JPY cross pair then U/J! LOL, it's too slow...
  • #61,430
  • Nov 23, 2012 11:59am Nov 23, 2012 11:59am
Quoting 100PipsADay
40,000 pips!!??

Damn you must be rich now...

Congratulations Ken!
Thanks.

Yea and that from E/J alone. I don't get this kinda chance everyday - maybe once or twice or none in a year. But this one is low leverage high pips per position.

Rich? That's very relative
  • #61,431
  • Nov 23, 2012 12:08pm Nov 23, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting 100PipsADay

I prefer ANY JPY cross pair then U/J! LOL, it's too slow...
For higher leverage I prefer USD/JPY and USD/CAD as more predictable but only for intraday
  • #61,432
  • Nov 23, 2012 12:18pm Nov 23, 2012 12:18pm
I just took one for the team and bought E/U with real $$$ to stop the bleeding...as always when I go real $$$, I tend to reverse the wave of action.

Your welcome shorts...your welcome

  • #61,433
  • Nov 23, 2012 12:34pm Nov 23, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting chodd22
I just took one for the team and bought E/U with real $$$ to stop the bleeding...as always when I go real $$$, I tend to reverse the wave of action.

Your welcome shorts...your welcome

Don't buy at the peak. Wait for the retrace - patience.
  • #61,434
  • Nov 23, 2012 12:38pm Nov 23, 2012 12:38pm
Why is there such a USD weakness???
  • #61,435
  • Nov 23, 2012 1:02pm Nov 23, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting Ken A
Don't buy at the peak. Wait for the retrace - patience.
yup. looking for a move back to get long sunday evening. i dont think there will be much opportunity today
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #61,436
  • Nov 23, 2012 1:09pm Nov 23, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Up almost 500 pips in the past 24 hours with JPY cross pairs!
  • #61,437
  • Nov 23, 2012 2:04pm Nov 23, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting Ken A
Don't buy at the peak. Wait for the retrace - patience.
LOL, I just did it to stop the move...and it worked. Already got out...

If anyone wants me to move this bad boy in their favor, let me know, I got mad skills at moving a trend with the click of a button!!!
  • #61,438
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:41pm Nov 23, 2012 9:41pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1353728273
  • #61,439
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:46pm Nov 23, 2012 9:46pm
So, my short at 2970 was a bit fail, market ignored my trendline quite easily and I'm remaining flexible so:

It looks like momentum is convincingly north at the moment. My interpretation is that this is a combination of EU summit, and the expectation of more QE announced in December.

I think it's becoming evident that Bernanke's only option is ever more QE, and when Twist ends I expect a new round of QE to take over. Twist ends in December, so it seems like that would be time to announce another 40 Billion per month or something like that.

I think the combination of both a fiscal cliff and twist ending would be a bit much, so expectations of extend and pretend prevail for me in terms of fed easing.

1.2880 looks like a good buying opportunity I think, with the expectation of the rally to continue in some manner until around the next Fed policy announcement next month, at which point I'd guess we have a tumble due to:

1. Buy the rumor, sell the fact.
2. Stock sales before the tax increase.
3. Fiscal cliff uncertainty.

Of course this is all speculation, and I'm more interested in what the chart says. I've been saying for a while that I think the majority of the EUR/USD bear trend is over, not due to a strong EUR, but due to US monetary policy. I haven't seen any reason to reject this yet. If Bernanke doesn't announce further easing, I expect quite a sell-off with all the new-year uncertainty, but I'm remaining flexible and focusing mostly on a time frame of less than one week for all trades.

EDIT: also, if 2880 fails, 2825 also looks like a likely spot to rally from.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #61,440
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:20pm Nov 23, 2012 10:20pm
I can see 1.35 or new highs not far from reality before year end. At the same time to clear out short positions accumulated over 2 months.
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