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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #61,401
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:19am Nov 23, 2012 9:19am
Wating for 1.2955
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #61,402
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:22am Nov 23, 2012 9:22am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Wating for 1.2955
  • #61,403
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:25am Nov 23, 2012 9:25am
Who has that big bubble blower???
  • #61,404
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:27am Nov 23, 2012 9:27am
time to stay out. monday w/ a greek deal could be a real short squeeze
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #61,405
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:27am Nov 23, 2012 9:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
In my view you're looking at it inside out.
Instead of thinking along the lines of a catalyst to drive the Euro lower, think in terms of what is driving the Euro higher.. My answer is "Hopium" and in this case it is not just any hopium... it is BS hopium. Add to that the fact that markets are trading on very thin volume, so come Monday, at the very minimum, we should see the entire move up since Wednesday erased. That's my 2 cents worth.
Lol, that is exactly what I keep saying to myself as my DD gets bigger.

However, still reasonable expectation as I believe that the market is rising on an anticipated "solution" to the Greek problem on Monday. Of course there will be a solution... there always is...and then it will be buy the rumour and sell the fact. Also we still the shadow of the fiscal cliff looming and the Eurozone recession is deepening.

More than once I have seen one week straight up and the following go straight down.

Still not happy though as there is a large element of wishful thinking here.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #61,406
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:28am Nov 23, 2012 9:28am
Quoting rekon67
IN
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #61,407
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:35am Nov 23, 2012 9:35am
I am sending a soldier to the battlefield. This one can stay alive for a long long time when profit taking starts and reality says hello next week
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #61,408
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:37am Nov 23, 2012 9:37am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
IN
  • #61,409
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:37am Nov 23, 2012 9:37am
Quoting Thijs
I am sending a soldier to the battlefield. This one can stay alive for a long long time when profit taking starts and reality says hello next week
  • #61,410
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:38am Nov 23, 2012 9:38am
If it jumps above recent peak again - 2975 should cap it as often 200% channel extensions do..
69
  • #61,411
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:40am Nov 23, 2012 9:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
In my view you're looking at it inside out.
Instead of thinking along the lines of a catalyst to drive the Euro lower, think in terms of what is driving the Euro higher.. My answer is "Hopium" and in this case it is not just any hopium... it is BS hopium. Add to that the fact that markets are trading on very thin volume, so come Monday, at the very minimum, we should see the entire move up since Wednesday erased. That's my 2 cents worth.
AMEN AND AMEN
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #61,412
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:44am Nov 23, 2012 9:44am
Quoting builder
Who has that big bubble blower???
All the Longs...
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #61,413
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:44am Nov 23, 2012 9:44am
..
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69
  • #61,414
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:47am Nov 23, 2012 9:47am
Quoting Thijs
I am sending a soldier to the battlefield. This one can stay alive for a long long time when profit taking starts and reality says hello next week
Welcome to the army. I have soldiers at many levels waiting on the battlefield.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #61,415
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:53am Nov 23, 2012 9:53am
Something to consider.

Look at EUR/JPY then compare it to EUR/USD.

This pair ever diverged very far from its tree?
  • #61,416
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:59am Nov 23, 2012 9:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
In my view you're looking at it inside out.
Instead of thinking along the lines of a catalyst to drive the Euro lower, think in terms of what is driving the Euro higher.. My answer is "Hopium" and in this case it is not just any hopium... it is BS hopium. Add to that the fact that markets are trading on very thin volume, so come Monday, at the very minimum, we should see the entire move up since Wednesday erased. That's my 2 cents worth.
I agree with your overall analysis that the market is heading lower...and soon. In fact, I just got short.

I wonder about the whole "hopium" concept, however. It seems to imply that there is some real conviction (somewhere, God knows where) that there is some economic justification for this move. As if someone really believed that an agreement on the Greek debt crisis would really change anything at all.

I don't believe that any such conviction exists. I believe this move is purely and simply a technical strategy to take out as many shorts as possible prior to a very large move down. As for when this buying climax will be erased, I think you are spot on. It will happen pretty quickly, probably over the next 2-3 trading days.
Student of the Markets
  • #61,417
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:59am Nov 23, 2012 9:59am
This is bad news.

EU Summit To Discuss Long-Term Budget Has Been Called Off – RTRS
From forexlive.com

Reuters cites ‘EU diplomats’ It must be conflicting with a different summit.
  • #61,418
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:03am Nov 23, 2012 10:03am
Quoting dchristi
I agree with your overall analysis that the market is heading lower...and soon. In fact, I just got short.

I wonder about the whole "hopium" concept, however. It seems to imply that there is some real conviction (somewhere, God knows where) that there is some economic justification for this move. As if someone really believed that an agreement on the Greek debt crisis would really change anything at all.

I don't believe that any such conviction exists. I believe this move is purely and simply a technical strategy to take out as many shorts...
Great point on the hopium. I can more than see your point..let we forget....its always about the money.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #61,419
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:05am Nov 23, 2012 10:05am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
I can more than see your point..let we forget....its always about the money.
I left out Techincal
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #61,420
  • Nov 23, 2012 10:17am Nov 23, 2012 10:17am
Quoting dchristi
I agree with your overall analysis that the market is heading lower...and soon. In fact, I just got short.

I wonder about the whole "hopium" concept, however. It seems to imply that there is some real conviction (somewhere, God knows where) that there is some economic justification for this move. As if someone really believed that an agreement on the Greek debt crisis would really change anything at all.

I don't believe that any such conviction exists. I believe this move is purely and simply a technical strategy to take out as many...
When you say this move is purely technical I completely agree. People often forget that EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair and is DOMINATED by robots and amateur traders.

However green pips are green pips, I don't care if it is going up or down... I prefer not to be biased on one currency as it blinds me from seeing the other side. But I guess it all boils down to what kind of trader one is. A position trader can handle 1,000 pip draw down, I can't...

I would rather ride the move up 1,000 pips, get out, then ride it back down...
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