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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,001
  • Nov 20, 2012 10:01am Nov 20, 2012 10:01am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Nice . I think it's a requirement to success and/or happiness to be positive. Best wishes to you MisterSpread.
Thank you Sir , USDJPY had a nice run today and I think it will continue ^^
  • #32,002
  • Nov 20, 2012 10:15am Nov 20, 2012 10:15am
- A few lines to consider.

- Cheers.
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  • #32,003
  • Nov 20, 2012 10:17am Nov 20, 2012 10:17am
Quoting MisterSpread
Thank you Sir , USDJPY had a nice run today and I think it will continue ^^
- Can you please post a chart support what you said?

- GL.
  • #32,004
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:08pm Nov 20, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Can you please post a chart support what you said?

- GL.
I already did a few posts ago but OK

P.S: 2 hours ago was 81.50 now is 81.70 so, but is still in that nice range, check my chart
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  • #32,005
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:55pm Nov 20, 2012 12:55pm
2 Year Yield spreads significantly diverged in recent days, While US TSY's may rise, A fall in USDJPY is still very likely, That combined with resistance levels, Divergences in short term oscillators.

I see 80.60 as a Real target, Ideas?
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  • #32,006
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:14pm Nov 20, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting MisterSpread
I already did a few posts ago but OK

P.S: 2 hours ago was 81.50 now is 81.70 so, but is still in that nice range, check my chart
- Thanks a lot.

- GL.
  • #32,007
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:28pm Nov 20, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting JeremyWS
2 Year Yield spreads significantly diverged in recent days, While US TSY's may rise, A fall in USDJPY is still very likely, That combined with resistance levels, Divergences in short term oscillators.

I see 80.60 as a Real target, Ideas?
- Thanks for the interesting charts.

- Based on what the 80.60 is going to be in the play?

- If 81.75 is the high then 81.12 first then 80.73 second(look at the chart).

- I wish you success in your journey.
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  • #32,008
  • Nov 20, 2012 3:05pm Nov 20, 2012 3:05pm
Hello everybody

Will it hit the March maximum?
  • #32,009
  • Nov 20, 2012 3:30pm Nov 20, 2012 3:30pm
Opening sell signal on USDJPY. Awaiting confirmation.
  • #32,010
  • Nov 20, 2012 4:23pm Nov 20, 2012 4:23pm
Quoting Orly
Opening sell signal on USDJPY. Awaiting confirmation.
Why are you guys selling UJ when you KNOW full well that this is a long term buy situation where BOJ says they will defend and looking at the status of the economy their currency should be above 100?

Boggles the mind to see ppl always feeding their accounts to the market when its obvious the downtrend has broken.
  • #32,011
  • Nov 20, 2012 4:35pm Nov 20, 2012 4:35pm
Quoting sidhujag
Why are you guys selling UJ when you KNOW full well that this is a long term buy situation where BOJ says they will defend and looking at the status of the economy their currency should be above 100?

Boggles the mind to see ppl always feeding their accounts to the market when its obvious the downtrend has broken.
I have read your posts before and I appreciate your sentiment. However, there are several reasons:

 

  1. Nothing goes straight up or straight down.
  2. Abe will not be elected and the premise of printing until the world is out of ink is not going to fly with the Japanese people. It just doesn't work that way.
  3. They can "defend" the yen weakness all they want to but they can't.
  4. I am trading my signals. That's all. Just signals.
  5. The yen is in a long-term sell situation (USDJPY buy...) but that is over the long term. I would expect a retrace here to ~81.09 before continuing higher.

Besides, I said I am awaiting confirmation and not feeding anyone anything. I'll let you know when (and if...) it arrives.

  • #32,012
  • Nov 20, 2012 5:44pm Nov 20, 2012 5:44pm
Quoting Orly
I have read your posts before and I appreciate your sentiment. However, there are several reasons:
[list=1][*]Nothing goes straight up or straight down.[*]Abe will not be elected and the premise of printing until the world is out of ink is not going to fly with the Japanese people. It just doesn't work that way.[*]They can "defend" the yen weakness all they want to but they can't.[*]I am trading my signals. That's all. Just signals.[*]The yen is in a long-term sell situation (USDJPY buy...) but that is over the long term. I would...
First of all nothign will go straight up or down but you always play with sentiment that is your edge... you never trade just because you think its DUE for a retrace... you will fail miserably. You need an edge and although an edge may be an OS or OB condition chances are you will get burned see 2008 crash.

The japanese economy is halted pretty much after the earthquake there is simply not much more it can get worsed.. since market is fwd looking question you have to ask yourself is... how much worsed can it get?

They just introduced new stimulis package incase it falls... like SNB they are willing to act.

Technically JPY should not be a safe haven as the country is gone to shit... and paired up against USD which is ready to rise again... its technically and fundamentally supporting a shift on the monthly tf. So long term I am telling you its not a SELL anymore as background has changed. 2008 started a shift in power and it is almost complete... USD is a t long term low aswell... not sure how many more "QE's" are left... remember market is forward looking.. by the time these things happen (US interest rates rise).... you won't be anywhere close to a bottom.
  • #32,013
  • Nov 20, 2012 5:54pm Nov 20, 2012 5:54pm
"Technically JPY should not be a safe haven as the country is gone to shit..."
Now who is trading on hope, me or you?
I am trading signals.

Anyway, I guess we'll see when the announcement finally comes out of Europe about the 50% haircut on Greek bonds and the real safe havens will stand up.

  • #32,014
  • Nov 20, 2012 5:59pm Nov 20, 2012 5:59pm
And by the way, I said I completely agree with you long-term. Just not rightnow...
  • #32,015
  • Nov 20, 2012 6:06pm Nov 20, 2012 6:06pm
Quoting Orly
"Technically JPY should not be a safe haven as the country is gone to shit..."
Now who is trading on hope, me or you?
I am trading signals.

Anyway, I guess we'll see when the announcement finally comes out of Europe about the 50% haircut on Greek bonds and the real safe havens will stand up.


Its a valid statement coupled with the other facts I stated... beats the "It has gone up for too long and needs to correct" thinking that you claim was one of your reasons to short ... gluck
  • #32,016
  • Nov 20, 2012 10:19pm Nov 20, 2012 10:19pm
Guys.....USDJPY IS VERY LOW, you can shot maybe 2-3$ for a correction but take a look of my yesterday chart and you will see that Ichimoku shows accumulation point on 77-78 area, and also the downtrend was broken on the same level and changed course....

Yesterday when I first posted it was 81.125, in a few hours went to 81.625 and now is 81.900 you do the math, cheers!
  • #32,017
  • Nov 20, 2012 11:45pm Nov 20, 2012 11:45pm
82.050...
  • #32,018
  • Nov 21, 2012 12:47am Nov 21, 2012 12:47am
I expect USDJPY to feel increasingly uncomfortable above 82,00. But that's just my expectation.
  • #32,019
  • Nov 21, 2012 1:22am Nov 21, 2012 1:22am
Quoting Spik
I expect USDJPY to feel increasingly uncomfortable above 82,00. But that's just my expectation.
Next stop 82.50
  • #32,020
  • Nov 21, 2012 5:59am Nov 21, 2012 5:59am
Quoting MisterSpread
Next stop 82.50

$82.50 Ching Ching lunch money ! Maaan I am so lucky
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