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AUD/USD

  • #56,601
  • Nov 19, 2012 8:52am Nov 19, 2012 8:52am
Quoting fxtyrant
I dont like it.... This move is just pushing from lows to highs on a monday with a gap up thats not filled...
All the wrong reasons for a move up.... But equities are bullish.... Hmmmm we might be having that push up before a big dive happening
yes. this is lingering confidence from boehner and obama talks in US congress' ability to begin to resolve US fiscal problems. i'm letting this risk run and am ready to short once the market starts to panic -- which will inevitably occur as the time remaining until the end of the calendar year dwindles. i am looking for that to occur starting next week. there is, of course, no way to know for sure when the sell off will happen. probability says at a retest of a major high. when was the last time everyone got together to fix things in a timely manner? of course if that happens, hello new highs on every risk asset
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #56,602
  • Nov 19, 2012 8:56am Nov 19, 2012 8:56am
buy buy buy

all the way back to 1.062
  • #56,603
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:08am Nov 19, 2012 9:08am
I though 1.0410 will be a v.good point to short.
Breaking 1.0460 to invalidate my trade.

got hasty to short too early @ 1.0370.
Targetting 1.0275.

goodluck all.
  • #56,604
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:16am Nov 19, 2012 9:16am
Heres the chart for Short AUDUSD.
2cents worth.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353338183
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  • #56,605
  • Nov 19, 2012 10:42am Nov 19, 2012 10:42am
Quoting plesac
......On 4 hr marked candle shows biger volume then all candles in last down move before it and price made retrace on up.Again so what? i think new buyers are in action on that 20865 position......
that candle realy did the job.On daily we are back above cloud.Momentum is positiv,Kijun and Tenkan line are in buy,not above cloud but still buy.If we close this way it looks like a test of 4.0450 area and that resistance line of blur triangle on weekly that we missed some time ago for few pips.Only cloud is in down trend and spankou B is flat for very long time and usualy it meens change of direction, but again we are above cloud. soo... looks like a buy from new daily candle with 0450 and 0550 area after before possible new sell.I have sell wish for some time but chart for now...even my gold buy made nice move on up
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  • #56,606
  • Nov 19, 2012 10:50am Nov 19, 2012 10:50am
Quoting fxtyrant
Is it just me or am i the only one thinking theres no reason for audusd to push up today other than big boys hunting for stops at 1.04, especially when we have a gapped up open for the week that needs to be filled??
In your case, who are the big boys, and who is getting hunted?

However, I don't think we'll be going above 1.04~.
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,607
  • Nov 19, 2012 11:03am Nov 19, 2012 11:03am
My take on a daily chart.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #56,608
  • Nov 19, 2012 11:06am Nov 19, 2012 11:06am
Quoting GnarlyPips
In your case, who are the big boys, and who is getting hunted?

However, I don't think we'll be going above 1.04~.
lol close above 1.04
  • #56,609
  • Nov 19, 2012 11:11am Nov 19, 2012 11:11am
Quoting sidhujag
lol close above 1.04
1.04~. Notice the "~"? Lol.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,610
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:18pm Nov 19, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
1.04~. Notice the "~"? Lol.
Yup I did... hopefully the AUD news will push it past
  • #56,611
  • Nov 19, 2012 2:58pm Nov 19, 2012 2:58pm
awesome huh
  • #56,612
  • Nov 19, 2012 3:03pm Nov 19, 2012 3:03pm
that helped yesterday. failed attack on 2000
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  • #56,613
  • Nov 19, 2012 3:29pm Nov 19, 2012 3:29pm
Although I closed my long London/SUNDAY open I got back in long here at 1.0405 (i know I should of held but hey, I am starting back up with swing/scalp after a year or more out of this arena lol) with a stop at 1.0488 We are at open wall (non resistance) between the fib confluence. Unless RBA minutes signal a cut in December we should see the top fib completed on the long side this week. This has occured several times in the past when there is a open wall between the fibs on the downside as well as the upside looking for completion.

Unless
gop or Dems come out with a balk on fiscal talk or EU Greece meeting tomorrow signals a bad outcome look to ES follow through on Tues (late buyers)
And continued dollar selling back down to the descending trendline (see usdx thread). Best to all in Asia/London
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  • #56,614
  • Nov 19, 2012 3:51pm Nov 19, 2012 3:51pm
geting screwed right now by aud/jpy...waiting for a retracement if its coming....at all
  • #56,615
  • Nov 19, 2012 4:12pm Nov 19, 2012 4:12pm
On A/J without accounting for ABC analysis and simply using Fib retrace YTD hi/low Not a good spot to be short considering we broke out from a major range this whole year. If BOJ comes out with this massive package it will only increase selling on Jpy vs others.

Futures also broke fibs ytd but you have support right now any move below this look out below
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  • #56,616
  • Nov 19, 2012 4:15pm Nov 19, 2012 4:15pm
Nice moodys just downgraded france cr I will look to see how London digest this info and might reverse on AUD way to early though as there is no point in trading right now with the lack of vol
  • #56,617
  • Nov 19, 2012 4:31pm Nov 19, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting jplazard
On A/J without accounting for ABC analysis and simply using Fib retrace YTD hi/low Not a good spot to be short considering we broke out from a major range this whole year. If BOJ comes out with this massive package it will only increase selling on Jpy vs others.

Futures also broke fibs ytd but you have support right now any move below this look out below

jp i noticed that it broke through that major range and also am watching what is going on in japan. If need be, I may have to close with a loss, unforuntatley. sucks i got stuck in this trade......... im watching closley.
  • #56,618
  • Nov 19, 2012 4:36pm Nov 19, 2012 4:36pm
We have all been there
  • #56,619
  • Nov 19, 2012 4:58pm Nov 19, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting jplazard
We have all been there

thanks haha
  • #56,620
  • Nov 19, 2012 5:14pm Nov 19, 2012 5:14pm
Im in the MOOD-YS for a nice bit of volatility or at least some EUR/AUD selling.

Further downgrade for the frogs likely - its been a bad year for the socialists -

we may travel to have another look at 1.2170-00 area.

AUD/JPY lets get busy with that break out of 84.20 area.. and thats where i would be looking to bail on a fail.

Good luck and watch for RBA comments about why they didnt cut rates and why they will cut their wrists instead if the economy stalls.
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