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AUD/USD

  • #56,561
  • Nov 16, 2012 3:16pm Nov 16, 2012 3:16pm
Quoting fxtyrant
just got back... had a look at AUDUSD my oh my..... great comeback aussies...
Just like their cricket team of the previous 2 decades - absolutely resilient .
  • #56,562
  • Nov 16, 2012 3:17pm Nov 16, 2012 3:17pm
Im starting to like this positive swap you guys are talking about lol as a short seller of AUD for some time never experienced it much lol
  • #56,563
  • Nov 16, 2012 3:35pm Nov 16, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting sidhujag
Long S&P coming up.. lets see if USD follows or is still not up to speed with equities
Set to BE
  • #56,564
  • Nov 16, 2012 3:39pm Nov 16, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Nice!

Take a look at this article and tell me what you think: http://www.dailywealth.com/2253/The-...rket-Indicator

Curious to hear your thoughts Jag.
Interesting makes sense though... and to add to that remember we just announced QE infinity which is super duper bullish. However Fed did a lay away on their payments for 60-90 days so their first payment isnt due to around now.. have a look at previous QE's and see that we dipped about 15, 18 % for last QE's... before FED payment's were seen and a bull market came in. I figure 60-90 days is right about now.
  • #56,565
  • Nov 16, 2012 4:24pm Nov 16, 2012 4:24pm
Divergence - more than likely we will see a a continue south in the AUD/USD. When comparing it to the AUD/CAD it has given me over the last 24 months remarkable profitable signals. I might be bias since I am short the AUD/CAD and will continue to hold until I get stopped out or AUD/USD hits 1.0000. I will jump ship and reverse my position if necessary, however today's close was not a strong close. I will argue that if today's close was at .9950 or 1.0050 or 1.0000 then yes. Sleep well and only time will tell.
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  • #56,566
  • Nov 16, 2012 9:30pm Nov 16, 2012 9:30pm
i am not some kind of AUD fan, and can trade anything, but this year more than 90% profits came from AUDJPY, EURAUD, AUDUSD and then far less USDJPY.

EURUSD traded reasonably volume but just slightly positive.

Last year my results were consistent positive for bigger number of instruments and trends longer.

This is consistent with volumes, so it appears volume is what traders feed on.

I am hoping USDJPY will spring to life soon.
  • #56,567
  • Edited 7:13am Nov 17, 2012 6:39am | Edited 7:13am
Traders based in AU... what FXbroker do you recommend ?

I have GO, IG and macq for futures.

I need another spotFX one. Anyone uses IB?

Thanks...

gentle reminder that shanghai touched 2000 second time and strong up day on monday could signal start of longer term rally that will impact positively aud. nikkei up strongly already.
  • #56,568
  • Nov 17, 2012 1:50pm Nov 17, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting jplazard
Im starting to like this positive swap you guys are talking about lol as a short seller of AUD for some time never experienced it much lol

Aye, Positive swaps are nice. Especially when you long AUD or NZD.
  • #56,569
  • Nov 18, 2012 4:45am Nov 18, 2012 4:45am
AUD/USD bounced off the support level of 1.0304 and closed for the week at 1.0345
  • #56,570
  • Nov 18, 2012 6:45am Nov 18, 2012 6:45am
Quoting plesac
.......let put my way of seeing this with charts....
.......DAILY Sankou B is flat for some time and cloud is down trend.wnsday candle is little more bearish and last daily is in some neutral mode but more negative so we must go below spankou B at which we are now and to test 1.0315 area.if we close below that lower band of daily bolindzer will be tested at 1.0260 area and weekly spankou B which is arround 1.0230 area.At that lower band of daily band we might have new move on up to 1.0570 to that uper band on weekly.......

.....4HR every time...
4 hr we finaly made that move below cloud.Chinkou is in good position (negative momentum).REhat RSI break 40 area trend line.We are in sell mode for now.I have been waiting that and it came.
Daily price break Spankou B and most important for me for now Kjun sen line.we close below that line and tested lower bolindzer band as expected.Bolindzer move a little in time so it isnt at 2060 but 2085 area and that is low on last daily candle.
So what now...As long below daily cloud i keep sell.If on 4 hr go above Kijun sen or cloud close half position and wait for new and better sell sign.Why better? well daily Chinkou span is still positiv so momentum is not good for now but in 2 -4 daily candles that could be changed.On 4 hr marked candle shows biger volume then all candles in last down move before it and price made retrace on up.Again so what? i think new buyers are in action on that 20865 position.

So from heare most likly some range up to 20-21 november as consolidation and then more down to that weekly blue support triangle..Keep on eye on 3086 areaas possible new selling area.charts below[ATTACH][/ATTACH]
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  • #56,571
  • Nov 18, 2012 6:47am Nov 18, 2012 6:47am
and weekly
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  • #56,572
  • Nov 18, 2012 8:49am Nov 18, 2012 8:49am
Quoting plesac
4 hr we finaly made that move below cloud.Chinkou is in good position (negative momentum).REhat RSI break 40 area trend line.We are in sell mode for now.I have been waiting that and it came.
Daily price break Spankou B and most important for me for now Kjun sen line.we close below that line and tested lower bolindzer band as expected.Bolindzer move a little in time so it isnt at 2060 but 2085 area and that is low on last daily candle.
So what now...As long below daily cloud i keep sell.If on 4 hr go above Kijun sen or cloud close half position...
For me, resistance is now 368 or so. There is an echo on my falling trend line that has been respected a bit in both directions for the last couple of weeks. It is just north of all that congestion caused by last year's crash, the rally from June this year and the subsequent fall in October. This merges nicely with being half way up the body of last week's candle.

Also... If we take the 4H back a couple of months for the last few times we had a 100pip+ drop followed by congestion, we see a spike, or rally, prior to continuation in most cases. This opens up 410 and even 430, before we can take a look again 102xx. Furthermore, my conspiracy hat tells me that all the retail players are going to be bearish, which means the big guys are going to clean them up. With no Aussie reports until Tuesday, I'm a bit suspicious especially with that 2nd last 4H candle. Looks to me like someone made a special effort to reach the 618 of the post election down move and came up just short.

Yep. Harder to pick than a broken nose, but I'm looking at scaling in to this one at the moment from 368 and 409. 280 looks like my target.

If it starts out the week the other way, then I'll look maybe at buying in around the 280 for some short term scalps but would prefer holding out til 230, 238, and 200 with a TP at 330.
  • #56,573
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:43am Nov 18, 2012 9:43am
Quoting sidhujag
Long S&P coming up.. lets see if USD follows or is still not up to speed with equities
whats your basis? i think 1600 by 1Q13 has a lot of big assumptions built into it that would be worth breaking out if you feel like elaborating.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #56,574
  • Nov 18, 2012 6:40pm Nov 18, 2012 6:40pm
From ANZ
(Still long from Friday morning long signal)

Newc FOB physical thermal coal and Australia FOB coking coal prices firmed last week, with Asia demand showing signs of improvement for early next year loadings. Reports suggest traders were covering their short positions before closing their books or the year and ahead of Xstrata’s annual negotiations with Japanese utilities for thermal coal contracts starting in January. Reports suggest Japanese utilities are hoping for settlements of USD90-95/t, while Xstrata is seeking prices above USD95/t. This week, thermal coal prices could track sideways with many buyers having already completed seasonal winter restocking requirements. Iron ore prices were unchanged, with market participants remaining cautious about China’s economic recovery.
  • #56,575
  • Nov 18, 2012 7:34pm Nov 18, 2012 7:34pm
Coming up to the first layer of the confluence wall. I suspect we will come down to retest the opening price before NY or we spike up to the upward trendline (now resistance) and see what happens.

Looking to get out shortly and go short once more but right now volume is light, and I will wait for London decision to TP.
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  • #56,576
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:23pm Nov 18, 2012 9:23pm
Daily chart. Entered Short.
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It 'aint easy, bein' cheesy
  • #56,577
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:20pm Nov 18, 2012 10:20pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1353093644
Out of my long and ES is starting to come down now looks like. I will look to short and set my SL above the uppertrendline resistance
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  • #56,578
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:01pm Nov 18, 2012 11:01pm
November 25th. Coming soon to a chart near you. Check MTF. (The week of).
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #56,579
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:15pm Nov 18, 2012 11:15pm
Quoting ForExtraPips
November 25th. Coming soon to a chart near you. Check MTF. (The week of).

How do you use this chart? Thanks!
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,580
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:22pm Nov 18, 2012 11:22pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
How do you use this chart? Thanks!
Reading up on Gann and Gann angles. Where price meets time.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
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