Euro/Dollar | Page 117 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

Euro/Dollar discussion 9 replies

Iran to replace Dollar with Euro 10 replies

Iran replace dollar with euro 15 replies

Syria Threatens To Abandon Dollar For Euro 3 replies

euro against the dollar 0 replies

Attachments: Euro/Dollar
Exit Attachments

Euro/Dollar

  • #2,321
  • Nov 19, 2012 5:43am Nov 19, 2012 5:43am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Long time..

I believe EU is now "officially" on a little leg up. Still testing this indicator I threw together. It is an attempt to capture longer term swings. The current little high there @ 1.2800 may get broken in the not too distant future.

That is the target for now...

All the best

Nice to see you back Mr. Tau. You don't grace us with your company often enough.

I remain bearish, but as usual in a corrective swing I have the witch of doubt whispering in my ear. I hope to see price stay below 2800, but the silly weenies that are distracted by the dog and pony show of the fake cliff may take that figure out. It never ceases to amaze me the stupidity of the markets.... Then of course there is the danger of a knee jerk pop through the figure on some Greek news even though we should all know that it is a fait accompli...

Looking at my charts like a chess player and trying to see a few moves ahead.... If 2800 is taken out, I think the stops that are stuck in the obvious place... just behind the 200 DMA 2808ish today will get run to clear the weak hands out.....

Then price should catch 2825/30. 2825 is strong resistance from prior lows, 2830 would be a measured target from one Elliott count that would exist at that time.

I prefer 2800 to hold, as that holds together the bearish count I am working from right now..... but exceeding 2800 only breaks the current count, and the alternate count is also bearish...

To get a bullish count one would have to call the whole move off 3173 a correction that probably ended in a wave C at 2661, and a new bullish phase should take hold and carry us higher than 3173 and that just does not line up with other markets.... it is diametrically opposed to everything the S&P500 etc broad equity indexes are telling us for example.

Therefor any upside silly news pops, and silly wall street weenies causing an equity rally while being distracted by the fake cliff psuedo-news is a correction during of a larger down move.

I believe on a Daily basis we are only in wave 3 of a five wave decline..... and have some pips to go before wave 3 down is put to bed.... to be followed eventually by wave 5 even lower....
  • #2,322
  • Nov 19, 2012 6:07am Nov 19, 2012 6:07am
Quoting Crassius
Nice to see you back Mr. Tau. You don't grace us with your company often enough.

I remain bearish, but as usual in a corrective swing I have the witch of doubt whispering in my ear. I hope to see price stay below 2800, but the silly weenies that are distracted by the dog and pony show of the fake cliff may take that figure out. It never ceases to amaze me the stupidity of the markets.... Then of course there is the danger of a knee jerk pop through the figure on some Greek news even though we should all know that it is a fait accompli...

Looking...
Good day to you, Mr.C

I'm impressed. With the Gann also.. have been a keen follower and there certainly are strong merits.

I'm trying to slow down a bit. Got my Renko setup - but this only gives me 2 or 3 trades per month. So I studied a few things, played with some indicators and came up with the "swing thing"... It is quite accurate - for an indicator. Never 100% - off course. What does worry me a bit, is that GU has not yet flipped to the upside. She remains down for now.

So - i'm looking to see the recent low @ around 1.2690 to hold fort. Even if we slide a bit here, but do not break that low - then 1.2800 is not going to hold.

Interesting times.

All success to you - and thank you for the wonderful posts.

Regards
  • #2,323
  • Nov 19, 2012 6:37am Nov 19, 2012 6:37am
To all readers

I have decided to remove 3V restriction as I think everybody deserve to present its opinion and frankly V's don't matter.
Please don't fight in this thread, share, have a healthy discussion and absorb knowledge as I did, well I still do.
I will still be looking after this place when I can, so if you wish to scam other members or be rude to them, you will land on my iggy ergo won't post in this thread.

Tom
swing it!
  • #2,324
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:28am Nov 19, 2012 9:28am
Don't be fooled.... that's not the fat lady singing.....

http://i731.photobucket.com/albums/w...et/fatlady.png

Bears have nothing to worry about until 2883 taken out.....

That's a long way away yet.... The higher it goes toward 2883... the better price for your shorts.....
  • #2,325
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:40am Nov 19, 2012 9:40am
Quoting Crassius
.... Then of course there is the danger of a knee jerk pop through the figure on some Greek news even though we should all know that it is a fait accompli....
And the news everyone already knew was coming causes a pop over the 2800 figure.....

I have a large sell limit sitting at 2824 against 2886, so bring it on baby....
  • #2,326
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:42am Nov 19, 2012 9:42am
Quoting Crassius

Looking at my charts like a chess player and trying to see a few moves ahead.... If 2800 is taken out, I think the stops that are stuck in the obvious place... just behind the 200 DMA 2808ish today will get run to clear the weak hands out..... .
The big boys are going to target those stops to take them out next....
  • #2,327
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:44am Nov 19, 2012 9:44am
Quoting Crassius
The big boys are going to target those stops to take them out next....

We have crossed the 200 DMA over and over agian in recent weeks.... each time we cross it it becomes less and less important as resistance.... at this point it serves only as a fools place to hide stops behind....
  • #2,328
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:46am Nov 19, 2012 9:46am
Quoting Crassius;6208202<br /> <br /> Looking at my charts like a chess player and trying to see a few moves ahead.... If 2800 is taken out, I think the stops that are stuck in the obvious place... just behind the 200 DMA 2808ish today will get run to clear the weak hands out..... <br /> <br /> Then price should catch 2825/30. 2825 is strong resistance from prior lows, 2830 would be a measured target from one Elliott count that would exist at that time.[/b

...

The first real resistance is here...
  • #2,329
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:51am Nov 19, 2012 9:51am
Quoting TauTrader

So - i'm looking to see the recent low @ around 1.2690 to hold fort. Even if we slide a bit here, but do not break that low - then 1.2800 is not going to hold.

Interesting times.

All success to you - and thank you for the wonderful posts.

Regards
So be it...

Regards
  • #2,330
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:52am Nov 19, 2012 9:52am
Quoting TauTrader
So be it...

Regards
Nice pips... Renko is cool
  • #2,331
  • Nov 19, 2012 10:42am Nov 19, 2012 10:42am
Quoting Crassius
Nice pips... Renko is cool
Mr. C -

Just lucky...

Thank you.

So - if we apply the same theory - then if 1.2752 can hold - a new high will follow again?

Regards
  • #2,332
  • Edited 11:00am Nov 19, 2012 10:58am | Edited 11:00am
Quoting TauTrader
Mr. C -

Just lucky...

Thank you.

So - if we apply the same theory - then if 1.2752 can hold - a new high will follow again?

Regards
I think we are putting in the new (short term) high right now sub 2830, then we turn down again toward 2600 level somewhere... I am calculating possible new targets for the next down leg at this time.

I think 2825/30 caps this up move because it fits an Elliott measured objective, and is against some serious resistance.

But we don't have to stop here... we could go higher... all the way up to 2882, although that would be very scarry, it still falls within strict Elliott rules. 2883 on my data feed enters the price territory of wave 1, and means the entire down move from 3173 was one big ABC correction and we are in wave 3 of the next big move up past 3173.... given the global economic conditions this is not in the cards IMHO.

Anything below 2841 is fine, and only wets my appetite to keep adding to my position. From 2841 to 2883, the bear move starts to look sicker, not juicier...

At 2825, we start getting into the area where the daily chart players are going to be selling more and as they do, price will find it harder and harder to advance. The equities rally (which has more to do with EURUSD advances than anything Greek) will also increasingly get into areas that will see more sellers than buyers and slow its advance, putting the brake on EURUSD advances...

S&P500 1380 is a sell... many people will be breathing a sigh of relief that it got that far back and will dump stocks into 1380, thinking they will never get lucky enough to see 1400 again and get a chance to sell there....

I am working on a chart now that I may post. I have pulled back to analyze the 360 minute chart to focus on the big picture, and not get fooled by the twists in turns of smaller scales.

Just missed my large add order at 2824 by 4 pips.... maybe later...
  • #2,333
  • Nov 19, 2012 11:49am Nov 19, 2012 11:49am
Quoting Crassius
I think we are putting in the new (short term) high right now sub 2830, then we turn down again toward 2600 level somewhere... I am calculating possible new targets for the next down leg at this time.

I think 2825/30 caps this up move because it fits an Elliott measured objective, and is against some serious resistance.

But we don't have to stop here... we could go higher... all the way up to 2882, although that would be very scarry, it still falls within strict Elliott rules. 2883 on my data feed enters the price territory of wave 1, and means...
Mr.C-

You may very well be spot on..

GU has failed to flip long - still. So this concerns me a bit. But I am out of all positions. Just watching PA. GU is close however.

I will however not short anything at this point. Will look for a dip and buy again - until proven wrong.

Wish you good trades

Regards
  • #2,334
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:36am Nov 20, 2012 2:36am
I expect ranging between Dpv 2778 and Dr1 2810 until somebody open mouth after meeting.
swing it!
  • #2,335
  • Edited 4:11am Nov 20, 2012 4:04am | Edited 4:11am
Let's step back and look at the bigger picture

Analyzing an hourly or even smaller chart in real time as it unfolds can lead to getting lost in the tangle of needless detail. Its good to take another look by stepping back and looking at daily data.

My current count puts us in wave IV of a five wave down trend. I would prefer to see wave three be a little longer than it is, but we clearly have a three wave swing higher ( as expected in a wave IV), and wave III has met minimum expectations.

The measured objective for wave IV would be 1.2830, nearly exactly the 1.2820 we have achieved thus far. I see farther downside in a wave V to the target box whose upper edge is 1.2641. I expect 2610 if I look at targets in finer detail.

What other counts could be valid if this is wrong?

There are several valid alternate counts. To keep it simple the most likely to me is that the bottom of 1.2661 is the end of wave V not III, and another five wave down move will follow the ABC pattern the current 3 wave swing is drawing. In that case the current move up should not exceed 1.2917, or I would doubt my entire count.

If you are a hopeless Bull..... then one thing to consider, even if I disagree, is the move down to 1.2661 is a corrective move (Wave C end at 1.2661), and we are now in the beginning of a bull move up, near the start of wave 3 from a wave 2 bottom of 1.2690. I would argue that the current state of the world economy, and the charts of world wide equity indexes scream that a top is already in place. With equities starting a bear market, EURUSD will not go the opposite direction and remain bullish. EURUSD also has topped, and is turning down in a large downturn that will eventually take out the 1.2043 low of July 2012. With EZ already entered into a double dip recession, why would anyone be bullish? ( Temporary Greek bullshit news?)

One last frustrating possibility..... the move down to 1.2661 is only a leg of some large sideways corrective pattern that we will only be able to see once price moves back up to the range top, and fails to move higher....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bgg Picture.png Size: 21 KB
  • #2,336
  • Edited 5:27am Nov 20, 2012 5:04am | Edited 5:27am
Quoting Crassius
Let's step back and look at the bigger picture

Analyzing an hourly or even smaller chart in real time as it unfolds can lead to getting lost in the tangle of needless detail. Its good to take another look by stepping back and looking at daily data.

My current count puts us in wave IV of a five wave down trend. I would prefer to see wave three be a little longer than it is, but we clearly have a three wave swing higher ( as expected in a wave IV), and wave III has met minimum expectations.

The measured objective for wave IV would...

I am not into ew but simple TA suggest Euro & Cable may had put in M/T bottoms here & are now heading for their range highs prior to another leg down..
Euro 1.2700 may be the new "line in the sand" as in the 1.2800 line during September & October..
Near term targets for bulls may be 1.2888 on the narrow & 1.2968 on the wide..
weekly above 1.2968 opens up another probe @1.32/1.35..

EURUSD Golden Ellipses
EURUSD/USDX Converging Pattern
  • #2,337
  • Nov 20, 2012 7:25am Nov 20, 2012 7:25am
Quoting TauTrader
Mr. C -

Just lucky...

Thank you.

So - if we apply the same theory - then if 1.2752 can hold - a new high will follow again?

Regards
Good day,

With a new recent high formed now - only just - if we get to 1.2840 - then we will go to 1.2860

Regards
  • #2,338
  • Nov 20, 2012 8:44am Nov 20, 2012 8:44am
Crassius,

Seems you were very right... it is a battle for bulls at this point.

I was hoping for more "oomph"..

So will be closing longs from 1.2780/1.2786 now for a very limited gain...

I dislike these situations - could go anywhere.

Sidelined again - long bias

all the best
  • #2,339
  • Nov 20, 2012 10:30am Nov 20, 2012 10:30am
Quoting tomspin
I expect ranging between Dpv 2778 and Dr1 2810 until somebody open mouth after meeting.
not much has changed since then as I can see, ben + some comments from EU + thin market = brutal move probably.
My SP short got SL'ed flat atm
Thinking about EJ instead of ED as it moves north in a very clear way, nearest levels at weekly chart
106,375
108,100
111,000
swing it!
  • #2,340
  • Nov 20, 2012 10:34am Nov 20, 2012 10:34am
I am calling the top in the EURUSD from the Fibo @~1.283 on the H4.
Downside target 1.252.

Wish me luck! I need it!
4 traders viewing now