Euro/Dollar

Your first target is totally doable soon...

The longer target... I tend to agree. Markets go down a lot quicker tan they go up, and I think all gains since the collapse have been central bank induced sugar highs, that mean nothing, were doomed to fail from the start and the post sugar high is more likely a crash, than a gentle comedown.

The immediate news story is the fake cliff, but this a broad worldwide unwind, the cliff is just the cause celeb dejour...

I have been saying to myself since Lehman Bros. collapse that fortunes will be won and lost over the next few years.... Its a great time in history to be a trader.

one of my brokers which belong to polish bank ceased corn trading during bull run after US crop forecast this year - feking bastards, yes indeed a great time but somehow I think they would not let us have it.I did not experienced 2008 as I wasn't into trading back then so cannot comment on that one.

Tom,

what is your take for the CAC DAX and FTSE?...............lot of room to the downside especially comparing fibo retracements to the DOW S&P and NASDAQ100...

maybe a terrific selling opportunity...European indexes lagging US indexes which are pushing lower faster kind of play.........have been trading the short side but with caution over QE3

and, today's FOMC Minutes if nothing else were pretty much a reminder that Massive QE is underway and probably no end in sight (on a political note with the tense divide between Republicans and Democrats it all does seem a bit off the wall to have unlimited debasement of the currency as official policy from both parties (Bernake was appointed by Bush and then re appted by Obama) so you cut taxes for the middle class, and raise taxes for the 1%, but steal the savings back at the same time, and the twist is the free FED money all goes to the Primary Dealers to disperse as the shareholders see fit....

social and economic policy R squared

Wednesday Report: Structural Damage on SP 500, GOLD undecided, EURO just bearish, USD stronger

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders.

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to [email protected]) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)

Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend. I will make a FAQ with any questions you have.

Bob Prechter is the man who saved R.N. Elliott's work from being lost to obscurity and forgotten in the mists of time in the 1980's.

He published the bible for Elliotician's....

http://www.amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-P...s=elliott+wave

He is widely touted as having called the pending crash of 1987 just days before it occurred and from that he and Ellliott Wave came to the fore, and is now so widely used along with the Fibonacci series that Elliott Wave incorporates that it is either a self fullfilling prophacy as so many traders react together on the same information, or it really is getting at something fundamental about the structure of all processes that occur in the universe. Either way it rocks.

Peter Schiff is a libertarian economist and famous gold bug and shamelesss self promoter. But hey, its great to hear libertarian ideas spoken out loud.

This is a conversation between the two including Prechter's call on US equities markets in particular. Then they go into the ongoing failure of the FED.

It will make you want to increase your position size.

It is recent... I think its about two weeks old.....

not intending to be argumentative over Prechter, but he did also make this call when the Dow was holding around 10,000 in July 2010....

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...rticle1386780/

the timeline was just prior to Jackson Hole and before the signal to launch QE2 (which many argued was doomed to failure as the market would not buy into a second round of stimulus AGAIN....saw many skilled tech analysts fall into the short higher trap along the POMOs)

and,......."the Fed will cash out the Primary Dealers to the tune of $85 billion this month. That’s the largest monthly amount of market boosting fuel since QE2 in the first half of 2011."


Takeaway; FOMC Minutes a reminder that Massive QE is underway with probably no end in sight ..........maybe there will be a crash? who knows but the massive stimulus is definitely coming. that is a certainty.

P Schiff.....definitely on the same page with you here...

Japan has been doing the Bernanke useless dance for what... 20 years now to no avail, and to no benefit... Its impossible to draw a direct correlation since Japan is not the world's reserve currency, and they are an export country.... not the same animal as the US....

But they have been having an ongoing ever increasing, never ending QE and nothing has really happened.... nothing blow up, and the results they were seeking through policy have never materialized....

Why can't the US do the same thing for 20 years with the same result? No blow up and no real benefit?



No one knows what will happen because we are in the realm of theory not fact.

One of the things I took away from Greenspan's memoir was just how little they knew or understood as events unfolded during his long career, including the many years before he was Fed Chair.... They had no idea most of the time what was happening, and can only explain what happened then by way of theory after the fact.


1. I like the part of Prechter's argument that the government is the biggest follower of all, and can not by its nature act except after the fact, when it is too late.

2. I agree with Prechter that at same point the Fed will simply lose control over interest rates. It will happen instantly, and they will be unable to do anything about it.

Very nicely formed and proportioned 5 wave structure down from 2800 now with 1.2724 low....


Fade a bounce back to wave 4 area around 50% fib and 61.8% fib is a trade idea....

What do you guys think about potential impact of land operations in Ghaza Strip? and open conflict?
@ RORO Sorry for late reply about indices,
Footsie bearish until 5430
Dow bearish until 12315 and 1200 as a big barrier imo
CAC40 could bounce about 3290 but since its ranging more than others I would bet on 2885 possibly.
I would short any rallies.
Regards.

Gaza conflict can only add to bearish risk off mood...

May be the start of the Isreal Iran war, as Hamas is Iran proxy force.... Throw Obama's Egypt into the mix and its just more to stir the "sell everything" panic...... that's just getting underway...

1.2724 low starting to look more like a wave III low and not wave V.... lower potential.... which would move the box so cancel that trade idea....

Let us all hope it will never happen, thanks for the heads up

H1 showing some weakness about Itraday sup pivot, could bounce here a bit or just fool knife catchers,
I am flat not trading anything except old gold longs and that SP short.

Its hard to say.. I can make a nice 5 waves out of 2724 or I could argue its a wave 3.... I shouldn't have posted it because this stuff can evolved quickly.... wanted to get it out early enough people could act on it... I need to just keep my mouth shut.

The thing is you want to fade this bounce no matter what it is.... either its a correction from a wave 5 that forms wave 1 of the next five waves down, or is an ABC correction one degree smaller that forms wave 4, for one more wave down below 2724.... Not as good but still a play.

The only difference lies where the correction will likely end.... and hence where you are likely to catch a good entry... and where the box should be.

You have to wonder though after Yesterday's equity PA if short term exhaustion is in the air (for S&P 500) today and a dead cat bounce is in the cards...

Anyway, I'm flat having booked my profit too early today at 2743..... and its late on a Friday..... another entry likely means holding over the weekend.... I may call it a week....

yes, sp (cash) currently sitting on two pivots with small body as confirmation for loosing momentum, cannot see a bounce as a danger one atm, H4 rolling nicely forming U shape bottom so yes will be watching it closely.
I think euro have to go to at least 2600/2500 as a general wide area for any chance to lift up, maybe it is just correction from 1300's.
No bulls untill weekly & daily confirms different intentions, and we are far from it.

I guess we are going to have to put in that 1342 - 3 print after all..... watch that figure....

Tom's Thread Readers --

I posted the following late Friday as we came into the close in another venue most do not have access to, my broker, MB Trading's client only forum.

I am assessing a Gann tool that has been out for decades now called PyraPoint based on the work of Don Hall. Mr. Hall has, I believe corrected a common mistake most Gann theorists make, and has probably cracked the exact method Gann actually used. I am still experimenting with it, but I hope, like Connie Brown does so successfully, to add Gann into my Elliott analysis to help stay in a move by adding information about where we are exactly inside a move in those areas where Elliott becomes vague, especially the top/bottom of waves 2 and 4.

Some of you may be interested in its contents, so I repost it here.

Here is how Friday unfolded...

Having heard many good things about PyraPoint over the years, and since it is now available on DeskTop, I am experimenting with it to complement my trading.

One aspect that I have found is that it is critical to start from a meaningful swing high or low as per Mr. Hall's instructions. This makes it a perfect compliment to Elliott analysis, because we often have a very strong opinion about the strength and meaningfulness of a particular high or low.

Today I post two charts. The first my working Elliott count that evolves over a trading day. We Elliotticians often think we know where we are in a move, but doubts often remain in the heat of battle. There are usually alternate ways to count an evolving move, especially in the corrective waves 2 and 4.

Here is my Elliott count off of what Elliott told me would be a very significant high, likely to produce an impulsive move to the downside, labeled green (c) and silver iv,Yesterday's 2801 high. Coming into the high I was counting a well formed and proportioned wave structure that signals the end of a move, and know that the 200 DMA is just above at 2815. Sell limit orders layered back from just below 2800 into the 200 DMA were prudent, and I got filled on my two lowest.


http://i731.photobucket.com/albums/w..._WaveCount.png

Once I am in a move, I chart it out looking for a five wave structure down in this case. But the labels on the chart above are applied in real time, and many considerations are weighed as they are counted... doubts as to the validity of one's count especially around wave 2 and 4 are common.

So how would PyraPoint have done keeping the doubts at bay as the trade matured?

Here is a chart of the 45 degree Pyrapoint on a fifteen minute chart with PyraPoint drawn from the same 2801 wave c (green) and IV (silver) high. M15 is a good scale to see meaningful trends, swings and levels in EURUSD.... smaller time frames are simply subsets of the same levels, and often produce noise induced confusion. The market is heading to the same levels. It doesn't matter if you are looking at a 5 minute chart, a 15 min chart or an hourly chart, the market will only react to sigficant levels. In EURUSD signifigant levels draw out with nice detail, and little noise on a fifteen minute chart.

http://i731.photobucket.com/albums/w..._PyraPoint.png

As you can see, PyraPoint kept the trade exactly on track, never once closing a fifteen minute bar outside the path all the way to the low.... a 112 pip move. Significant to me as I learn and assess the value of Mr. Hall's tool is how price reacts around PyraPoints levels. If PyraPoint draws meaningful levels, price should react clearly to each.

This five wave structure down from 2801 to 2691 today is a well proportioned, very typically sized EURUSD impulsive 5 wave structure. Pyrapoint perfectly catches wave 4 and price rides up the PyraPoint diagonal, reversing in a relevant PyraPoint area at square top/bottom. The bottom of the PyraPoint square is only 2 pips shy of the extreme bottom of the move, and the lower diagonal in red catches the low with high precision. The upper descending diagonal in red seems to be relevant as price bumps against it and clearly reacts to its resistance in wave 2.

****EDIT**** It occurred to me after looking at the link to make sure they work that I took the screenshot right at an EOS... A very useful Elliott guideline, but not a hard and fast rule, is the a correction to five way structure will end in the price territory of wave 4... exactly where price is at the EOS !! Price also is at the underside of S1, a likely reversal point.... sadly it is also 3:30 in the afternoon on a Friday....

Friday Review Report:

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders. I created this site as a guide to understand my report: http://gino32.wix.com/indepthmarketreport#!home/mainPage

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to [email protected]) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)

Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend. I will make a FAQ with any questions you have.

Good day to you,

Long time..

I believe EU is now "officially" on a little leg up. Still testing this indicator I threw together. It is an attempt to capture longer term swings. The current little high there @ 1.2800 may get broken in the not too distant future.

That is the target for now...

All the best

indeed! "Greek tradegy" will decide for now, me thinks Daily & Weekly looking good for upmove, some data today will sort things out possibly, I am shorting USD/CAD.For Euro/Dollar I see 2852/55 for current swing from 2700, two weeks left for me though. Will be away untill april if anybody have a plan to go for holiday in Val d'isere - drop me a line to meet Tom in real life and have a chat about FX over the pint.
Wish to see this place to grow and see you guys post as often as you did.
Regards
Tom