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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #60,961
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:53pm Nov 17, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting Ken A
Don't worry I wasn't refering you but the trolls lol.

I was just thinking for someone who just started this thang for 3 months reading everything either very confusing or believing everything from those shouters.

I have no reason to doubt your achievement. Good job. Hope to hear from you more often here.
Thank you Ken for clearing this up. I greatly value your thoughts and respect your market insight. We are all fortunate that we are a part of this forum with PT as our fearless leader.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #60,962
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:00pm Nov 17, 2012 10:00pm
I think Tuesday will be key on where the market goes in the short term. If the EU ministers grant Greece their cash then the Euro could stage a relief rally towards 1.283+ to 1.2880. If there is a delay then me might see 1.2650 or lower...
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #60,963
  • Nov 18, 2012 2:13am Nov 18, 2012 2:13am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Golden Circle
Golden Ellipse

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...003_thumb2.gif
Circumference =
p http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...e004_thumb.gif
Area =
p http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...0041_thumb.gif
Ed...
Paths of the EURUSD M/T Elephants..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: capture-20121118-073301 elephant golden ellipse.png Size: 86 KB
  • #60,964
  • Nov 18, 2012 7:29am Nov 18, 2012 7:29am
channel confluence very powerful @ H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fxfctoryanlys.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #60,965
  • Nov 18, 2012 8:12am Nov 18, 2012 8:12am
Thank you CurrencyMan and cdndollar for this very interesting perspective. I saved the Excel version and am contemplating programming this using DDE (geek speak for Dynamic Data Exchange) to see if it is valid in a real time environment.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #60,966
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:32am Nov 18, 2012 9:32am
Quoting rekon67
IMHO

Specially for E/U friday last few hours upside move was due to some news related to oil, I can not guide you the exact source now but may be later I will try.

Gold has a definite co-relation to move this pair up and down, and specially in the festive seasons.
i thought it was the boehner/obama comments re: fiscal cliff. oil may have been affected due to the events within that story.. but the euro, s&p, dow, grains? not sure

Quoting EuroTraderJD
I think Tuesday will be key on where the market goes in the short term. If the EU ministers grant Greece their cash then the Euro could stage a relief rally towards 1.283+ to 1.2880. If there is a delay then me might see 1.2650 or lower...
the market expects greece to get their $$. it will be status quo if they get the next tranche. i think the larger, more imminent event is fiscal cliff (so sick of that phrase). i think we're in for a near term sell off leading into the 11th hour where we will experience another august 2011 or a nice fat risk rally... until the next crisis!
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #60,967
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:45am Nov 18, 2012 9:45am
Quoting redteamgo
i thought it was the boehner/obama comments re: fiscal cliff. oil may have been affected due to the events within that story.. but the euro, s&p, dow, grains? not sure


the market expects greece to get their $$. it will be status quo if they get the next tranche. i think the larger, more imminent event is fiscal cliff (so sick of that phrase). i think we're in for a near term sell off leading into the 11th hour where we will experience another august 2011 or a nice fat risk rally... until the next crisis!
Agreed. Could be a partial reason why the Euro rallied a bit on Friday. However I noticed a melt up on most Friday afternoons.

With so many black swans flying (another phrase I am sick of) it is amazing that the sun still shines. Central Bankers must be of the gods...
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #60,968
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:56am Nov 18, 2012 9:56am
http://images.forexpeacearmy.com/Wee...h_19_11_12.gif
  • #60,969
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:00am Nov 18, 2012 10:00am
I think before the market is having a clear view of Fiscal Cliff, other than Greece, I will pay attention to AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/AUD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and other Yen Crosses. Large funds (foreign capital, central banks or hedge funds) will temporarily seek other safe haven in AUD, NZD, JPY and dump USD and EURO after gaining few hundred pips each round. I am not sure this will be USD and EURO bearish because of the pending issues Greece and Fiscal Cliff.

The reverse of below might happen to make another few hundred pips each.

1. Short AUD - Long USD - Short JPY.
2. Short NZD - Long USD - Short JPY.
3. Short AUD - Long EUR - Short JPY.
  • #60,970
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:05am Nov 18, 2012 10:05am
Quoting Ken A
I think before the market is having a clear view of Fiscal Cliff, other than Greece, I will pay attention to AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/AUD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and other Yen Crosses. Large funds (foreign capital, central banks or hedge funds) will temporarily seek other safe haven in AUD, NZD, JPY and dump USD and EURO after gaining few hundred pips each round. I am not sure this will be USD and EURO bearish because of the pending issues Greece and Fiscal Cliff.

The reverse of below might happen to make another few hundred pips each.

1. Short AUD...
That makes E/U floating without any direction! Guess tough job for me as only E/U trader
  • #60,971
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:09am Nov 18, 2012 10:09am
Quoting rekon67
That makes E/U floating without any direction! Guess tough job for me as only E/U trader
Very true but without knowing what is happening around EUR, we might conclude it as 'manipulation' while it is not. Knowing a little bit and anticipated what might happen always help me with few pips and I am grateful for that
  • #60,972
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:18am Nov 18, 2012 10:18am
Quoting Ken A
Very true but without knowing what is happening around EUR, we might conclude it as 'manipulation' while it is not. Knowing a little bit and anticipated what might happen always help me with few pips and I am grateful for that
So, Dollar is around its 2 months high and yen is in spot light. May be this is just a start and EUR eventually on its way of creating a new low.
  • #60,973
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:25am Nov 18, 2012 10:25am
Quoting rekon67
So, Dollar is around its 2 months high and yen is in spot light. May be this is just a start and EUR eventually on its way of creating a new low.
I don't think Fiscal Cliff and Euro Zone issue will be resolved in the immediate future so I am still Dollar bullish and YEN bearish. Unsure about EURO because of its status of funding currency. I am just thinking what would these large funds do and by moving around the liquidity to each instruments making few hundred pips each round. Say only $1 trillion making few hundred pips in YEN, EUR, AUD, NZD and USD the snow ball effect is scary. Large funds triumph and see chaos as good opportunity to make quick $$.
  • #60,974
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:33am Nov 18, 2012 10:33am
I also believe.


http://forexclubmoney.com/attachment...0&d=1353196380
  • #60,975
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:59am Nov 18, 2012 10:59am
Quoting Silvaa
I also believe.


http://forexclubmoney.com/attachment...0&d=1353196380
What u believe Silvaa?
  • #60,976
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:59am Nov 18, 2012 10:59am
Quoting prosiak
Thanks for answer in reply my post!
I hope,if possible,to start just by monday with a little profit to give me more optimism to "delete" this gap in my balance. I think it's not so much and I'm sure that if I'll not do the same mistake,I can have a "new life".
I don't hide than I don't use automatic stop loss but I think I'll begin to use a Limit Order to close bad position.
Thanks about your advise and "PipTrader" is just under my eyes ( i read him blog and I hope that he's right in him forecast by monday 16).

At soon!
Please note: PipTrapper is not intraday or scalper. He is a long term trader so if you are a scalper or intraday and over leverage, you might be visited by Margin Call before your target reached.
  • #60,977
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:06am Nov 18, 2012 11:06am
eurusd - month chart has made it off the bottom with no commitment to a direction, the weekly has already topped out and is unsure of it's direction which will be in a tight range of 1.32 and 1.26 , the daily has come off it's bottom, but the 4h is a sell with a short term retracement on the 1h - very mixed and choppy in a range, the aud and pound have better swings at this time.....The More You Learn, The More You Earn....
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #60,978
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:13am Nov 18, 2012 11:13am
Quoting prosiak
Thanks for answer in reply my post!
I hope,if possible,to start just by monday with a little profit to give me more optimism to "delete" this gap in my balance. I think it's not so much and I'm sure that if I'll not do the same mistake,I can have a "new life".
I don't hide than I don't use automatic stop loss but I think I'll begin to use a Limit Order to close bad position.
Thanks about your advise and "PipTrader" is just under my eyes ( i read him blog and I hope that he's right in him forecast by monday...
Monday Morning

How you feel when you wake up Monday morning is an excellent indicator (no, not a technical indicator) of whether you are ready to make trades with real trading capital or not.

If you wake up feeling content, perhaps somewhat excited, and looking forward to the day (particularly to when your markets will open for the day), then you could very well be ready to make trades with real trading capital. If on the other hand, you wake up feeling nervous, trying to think of an excuse for not getting out of bed, perhaps with a feeling of dread for what the day holds, then you are very likely not ready to make trades with real trading capital.

Your emotional condition on Monday morning is a very reliable indicator of how you really feel about your trading, not how you think you feel about your trading, and not how you want to feel about your trading. New traders often wake up on Monday morning with negative emotions (even if they do not directly attribute the emotions to their trading), whereas professional traders usually wake up feeling calm, and with a sense of pleasant anticipation for the day's trading.
  • #60,979
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:39am Nov 18, 2012 11:39am
I must commend the top down effect I see on this thread.
PipTrapper, it looks like you have some disciples here.

In my journey, I've read many threads, but this one gets
the overall MVT (Most Valuable Thread) award.

Cao
  • #60,980
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:55am Nov 18, 2012 11:55am
Quoting Ken A
if you are a scalper or intraday and over leverage, you might be visited by Margin Call before your target reached.
AMEN.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
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