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Trendline Break (The Only System You Need)

  • #321
  • Nov 14, 2012 10:32pm Nov 14, 2012 10:32pm
went short AUD/USD 1.03785..
  • #322
  • Nov 14, 2012 10:59pm Nov 14, 2012 10:59pm
Quoting flash4
hi all
i have only started reading this thread (about half way)
looks like a simple concept
does the chart below present a valid setup?
The problem with all this is you have taken a chart of some time frame, looked back and found a few trend line brakes that would have produced winning trades. Yes they work about half of the time. But how to do in real time. Where to take profit, where to place stop loss?? It looks much different in real time. You are better off using a couple of indicators to give you a reason to pull the trigger, take partial profit at some point, let the balance run to some back tested point, place your stop loss at the last high/low and hope over a month you come out winners. Find a system that has one trend and one oscillator and back test until you formulate a plan.
It is all a form of educated gambling.
If you look at your 5 min chart you can draw about 100 trend lines. Which one to trade??
JJ
  • #323
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:22am Nov 15, 2012 2:22am
Quoting JumpJack
The problem with all this is you have taken a chart of some time frame, looked back and found a few trend line brakes that would have produced winning trades. Yes they work about half of the time. But how to do in real time. Where to take profit, where to place stop loss?? It looks much different in real time. You are better off using a couple of indicators to give you a reason to pull the trigger, take partial profit at some point, let the balance run to some back tested point, place your stop loss at the last high/low and hope over a month...
you are correct JJ, i havent yet developed this into a system. at this stage just learning the pure trendline signals and trying to perfect the best trendline (as you pointed out there are 100 you can draw). once confident i will want to introduce other signals and then start the money management
is this a decent plan?
  • #324
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:20pm Nov 17, 2012 9:20pm
Quoting JumpJack
The problem with all this is you have taken a chart of some time frame, looked back and found a few trend line brakes that would have produced winning trades. Yes they work about half of the time. But how to do in real time. Where to take profit, where to place stop loss?? It looks much different in real time. You are better off using a couple of indicators to give you a reason to pull the trigger, take partial profit at some point, let the balance run to some back tested point, place your stop loss at the last high/low and hope over a month...
Instead of identifying and drawing 100 trendlines, why not you choose the recent highest point and lowest point?
Please take note while drawing an uptrend line: The second low must be higher than the first for the line to have a positive slope and while drawing an downtrend line: The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope.

Below is the latest EUR/USD as an example:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 46 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 48 KB


I have been tired of being a daytrader so I only trade daily chart. Even if it is a short term breakout, I can still net pretty much profits (pips) since the daily volume is apparently higher compared to those on lower TFs. I hope I make it clear and simple, sorry if my English is poor.

Just use my template if you are like my chart.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl ha.tpl   1 KB | 808 downloads
File Type: mq4 Heiken Ashi.mq4   4 KB | 973 downloads
  • #325
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:31pm Nov 17, 2012 10:31pm
Thanks Amikaking for ur explanation.
my question now is from your trend line that u have drawn what is the next move if price breaks the upper of lower line?
  • #326
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:32pm Nov 17, 2012 10:32pm
what is ur take profit and stoploss
do u move ur stops?
cheers
  • #327
  • Edited 9:22am Nov 19, 2012 9:08am | Edited 9:22am
I have a bullish outside bar for the A/$ @ 08:03 ct/us (-6GMT) I entered 3 pips above the high of the signal bar @1.0410 - I hope it goes for a nice ride but volume does seem low this morning.

edit 09:20 I failed to notice two congestion zones around Nov 11th and Nov 7th - both lasted for more than one day. My buy was right into those zones, should have looked left!
  • #328
  • Nov 19, 2012 2:36pm Nov 19, 2012 2:36pm
AUD/USD I got out of this for minus 11 pips, 4 down candles was enough for me although the SL was for 27 (I think) pips. It is starting to come back but there is some red flag Aussie news this evening and I'll take a smaller loss over hope. The Tue NY session has some big news too; this might not be a good week to trade with the US holiday on Thu and Fri.
  • #329
  • Mar 21, 2013 4:04am Mar 21, 2013 4:04am
This is a bullshit . Starter of this thread is a looser. All know that on history all are wall-street traders.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #330
  • Mar 22, 2013 8:12am Mar 22, 2013 8:12am
Quoting andoseg2
This is a bullshit . Starter of this thread is a looser. All know that on history all are wall-street traders.
I captured +30 pips with the E/Y, 1H TF this morning. I closed early as it put me in profit for the week and month. And by the way it's "his pants are looser proving he is not a loser controlling his weight."
  • #331
  • May 23, 2013 10:41am May 23, 2013 10:41am
got bored by dozens of indicators.

gold: i am waiting for re-test candle to close upper side of trend line. if it happens i will go long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #332
  • May 23, 2013 10:48am May 23, 2013 10:48am
aud/usd

it found a support at near 0.96, waiting a candle that will break trend line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #333
  • May 23, 2013 1:52pm May 23, 2013 1:52pm
look at that wonderfull bar. go gold go..

another important trendline is on usd/cad chart. waiting for a candle that will break trendline.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #334
  • May 24, 2013 9:15am May 24, 2013 9:15am
there is a break and re-test candle just stopped at trendline. and also bearish engulf. very risky but it meets my conditions. opened position before candle close
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 58 KB
  • #335
  • May 24, 2013 12:35pm May 24, 2013 12:35pm
i only can earn money with this method in 2 years.

eur/usd reached tp.

i closed gold position by breakeven because it couldnt satisfy my expectation and weekend comes.

for the next week my eyes will be on gold-aud/usd-usd/cad

have a beatiful weekend
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #336
  • May 26, 2013 5:16pm May 26, 2013 5:16pm
new week started with a break. I sell usd/cad with a low stop level. probobly i will stop but the risk worths to take position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #337
  • May 27, 2013 5:18am May 27, 2013 5:18am
usd/cad reached sl

and gold will decide to destination. i will open position wherever it goes.
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  • #338
  • May 29, 2013 9:02am May 29, 2013 9:02am
just openned buy position on gold.

trendline break + trendline support
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  • #339
  • May 30, 2013 3:02pm May 30, 2013 3:02pm
today my gold position reached tp.

there is a possible sell position on eur/usd however i wont go.

i close this week

happy weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #340
  • Jun 8, 2013 5:38pm Jun 8, 2013 5:38pm
Just read the entire thread, and its great info! The more people that post and share examples the more we can all learn and fine tune for ourselves.

Questions-

1. What is a goond indi that can help minimize bad trades? I see people posting RSI, Divergence, fibo retrace and a CCI 50 or 9, and 200MA with a 5MA. Can anyone clear this up on a " how to use" them correctly?

2. Some people posted about Pivots, is there indi that will do it for you in a clear manner?

3. When drawing the trendline on a higher time frame, like the day to the hour to the 30m, do you adjust the trend line as you more down to a lower time frame or leave the trendline of the higher time frame.


That is all for now! Keep posting!
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