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Sonic R. System

  • #41,081
  • Nov 17, 2012 4:43am Nov 17, 2012 4:43am
Good post initiated by umbro & responded by tah. I'm by no means a successful trader nor an expert, but to add the points I put illustrations below:
Picture 1: A hypothetical trades journal with:
SL 100 pips
TP 30 pips
Losing/Winning 1:4
Number of trades 5/week
Position size 1/trade

Picture 2: Graph of your account balance over number of weeks trading with the above hypothetical trades.
It shows that with the above scenario, you will more than double your money in 4 years time. Is that return good enough? Does that take too long to achieve? Depends. It all depends on our objectives, risk profile, trading style, etc etc. Thus each of us has got our own work to do.

This illustrates that even with RR less than 1:1, you can still making positive return if you win more than you lose (in this case, I have to reduce my max risk to <1% so that I will still be in the game long enough to cover the loses. On the other hand, I pay the price of being conservative by getting smaller returns. I guess this illustrates also that trading is NOT a getting-rich-quick business). In my case, atm this is what I'm trying to achieve with SonicR system: mastering it so that I can win more time than I lose (acquiring an edge). By back testing & forward/paper trading hopefully I would then generate enough data to analyze my performance with SonicR system.
Just my two cents...
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  • #41,082
  • Nov 17, 2012 5:33am Nov 17, 2012 5:33am
Trend trading is all about keeping the losers small and maximizing the winners (adding to the profitable trades) .

This way you can have a 35% win rate and make millions. Easier said than done.
  • #41,083
  • Nov 17, 2012 7:38am Nov 17, 2012 7:38am
EURUSD long, but:

-we are not in "Lo - Lc" period
-we have resistance level @1.2750 close to our EP (1.2743)

IMO: we should wait "Lo" session after asian and will see the best moment for our EP
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  • #41,084
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:04am Nov 17, 2012 9:04am
GBPUSD - daily - maybe will make a small pullback on 1.5950 but at the end next support area will be 1.5600

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" Support/Resistance is your friend .. and TREND your girlfriend .. "
  • #41,085
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:52am Nov 17, 2012 9:52am
Quoting umbro
Ok. You said your point i agree partially...now... i'd like to say mine with the intention to mantain the discussion at acceptable levels without offending anyone. We are both for democracy and possibly freedom of speech.
Now, there are the big boys and there are the "little boys" (us...it's not United States it's us, we, noi, watashitachi...i'm joking).
I am one of these little boys of course.... I'm 23 (started doing stuff with fx at 19). I never was very consistent bc I was in college and had a lot of work to do to earn my way through... so really I have <1 yr experience consistently and about 4 months of live trading exp (paid for some fx education too that was pretty good and helped me out).

Anyways, on to the main point, I too am just adding funds from my salary, but I wanted to point out that just because you risk double the pips from 50-100, you can still risk the same 1% whether it be 50 pips or 100 by decreasing or increasing the value of the pip traded.
So if my account is $1000 and I risk 1% ($10) with a sl of 50 pips, then my pips are 0.020 standard lots (0.040 if I risk 2%). If I have a SL of 100 pips and still only wish to risk 1%, then I will trade 0.010 standard lots (0.020 if I risk 2%)... That's how I balance how much I risk... I don't see any reason to double your risk with a double sl...

I know you probably already know this... but I thought it might be useful to point out.
obviously I'm having to save substantial amounts of capital to ever hope to trade full time, but I trade live with real (not much) money so that I have the emotional/mental factor in the mix.
Just my 2 cents....

edit: I agree with only posting pips gained as well. The chart won't lie
  • #41,086
  • Edited 12:59pm Nov 17, 2012 10:07am | Edited 12:59pm
S/r areas.

Was asked in pm how I look at price and high volume candles around s+r areas.

This is my take on it, maybe some sonickers will also benefit from it.

p.s the dragon was left out on purpose for the demonstration, but if you apply it you will clearly see the way.

Take care.

H.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #41,087
  • Nov 17, 2012 11:23am Nov 17, 2012 11:23am
Quoting hansma
S/r areas.

Was asked in pm how I look at price and high volume candles around s+r areas.

This is my take on it, maybe some sonickers will also benefit from it.

p.s the dragon was left out on purpose for the demonstration, but if you apply it you will clearly see the way.

Take care.

H.
Hello Hansma,

Would you mind sharing your template?

Thanks!
  • #41,088
  • Edited 1:36pm Nov 17, 2012 1:21pm | Edited 1:36pm
I wanted to post this just for that special someone that goes by TAH.

Give you a little weekend laugh

Thanks for everything you do!


PS. I clearly won't post charts like this ha

Do notice the downtrend though Sonicers!

Edit: Here's another interesting look on the Weekly.
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  • #41,089
  • Nov 17, 2012 3:32pm Nov 17, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting hansma
S/r areas.

Was asked in pm how I look at price and high volume candles around s+r areas.

This is my take on it, maybe some sonickers will also benefit from it.

p.s the dragon was left out on purpose for the demonstration, but if you apply it you will clearly see the way.

Take care.

H.
great post hansma. But could you please increase the font of your writings on the chart cos i bad eyesight and so find it very difficult to read it.
thank you.
  • #41,090
  • Nov 17, 2012 4:47pm Nov 17, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting albus999
great post hansma. But could you please increase the font of your writings on the chart cos i bad eyesight and so find it very difficult to read it.
thank you.
You need to go see someone about some glasses

No offence mate. I myself also use glasses when reading and posting.

H.
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #41,091
  • Nov 17, 2012 5:41pm Nov 17, 2012 5:41pm
Yes. Correct. I like Oanda because you can trade units (there are some limitations with mt4) and I think is a good starting for a beginner because you can trade real money without risking too much. mine was an example to explain. btw, I didn't want to say you cannot have 100 pips stop loss. You can. As you said you can decrease the value of the pip maintaing the same risk. however in order to be consistent in the long term you need to maintain at least 1:1 Risk/Reward. I don't want to be repetitive but if you base your trading on this basic principle (and you should do in my opinion) then consequently a 100 pips SL means your target is at least 100 pips gain. If you take your intraday trades on lower TM (M5, M15) then I see some problems reaching your targets daily.

Quoting dafox1
I am one of these little boys of course.... I'm 23 (started doing stuff with fx at 19). I never was very consistent bc I was in college and had a lot of work to do to earn my way through... so really I have <1 yr experience consistently and about 4 months of live trading exp (paid for some fx education too that was pretty good and helped me out).

Anyways, on to the main point, I too am just adding funds from my salary, but I wanted to point out that just because you risk double the pips from 50-100, you can still risk the same 1% whether it be...
  • #41,092
  • Nov 17, 2012 5:55pm Nov 17, 2012 5:55pm
I'm happy and with reagrds to your reply I would like to say I think it's correct the thread should be focused on the method, trades, pips etc.
The context is clear. Let's say my goal was to show (I don't know if I accomplished it) money cannot be excluded from our trading because they are a component. I'd say an important one having implications on how you trade. I suppose many traders are mainly focused on taking good trades before thinking at money management because it's considered secondary. I's a mistake. That's why I'm not a fan of demo accounts. I think demo is good at the beginning to learn the method but then it's better to trade real money because of the intrinsic psycological effect it has.


Quoting traderathome
Umbro, I agree with Jdtrader. You contributed a great post there! I hope all Sonicers that do not yet have a firm money management method will not just read your post, but will both read it and think on it really well. And perhaps put it into play as their money management method.

Since you are new, and have not read the thread, something I've said in the past you are not familiar with. And it might help you understand some of what I do. I have always held to the belief that posted trades should only reflect pips gained or lost between...
  • #41,093
  • Nov 17, 2012 6:36pm Nov 17, 2012 6:36pm
Yes. correct and thank you for the time you spent on doing the simulation. yes, You can win also with a bad R:R if you're lucky. however I'd like to tell you a couple of things. your exercise is based on a strong and difficult hypothesis in reality. You are giving for granted you'll winning 80% of the times (Losing/Winning 1:4). That's difficult in the long term. I suppose a normal trader is at around 60%. Then there are very good traders who can do more. I prefer to be conservative and don't base my simulation/goals only on my trading skills especially on the long term.
The other thing is that one looser (100 pips) in your simulation is "eating" more than 3 winning trades. This is not bad for your bottom line (you can make it better) only but it has psycological implications if you don't trade like a robot. It's not beautiful to see your hard earned money in several trades gone in a single trade looser.

Just my 2 cents.

Quoting gain4all
Good post initiated by umbro & responded by tah. I'm by no means a successful trader nor an expert, but to add the points I put illustrations below:
Picture 1: A hypothetical trades journal with:
SL 100 pips
TP 30 pips
Losing/Winning 1:4
Number of trades 5/week
Position size 1/trade

Picture 2: Graph of your account balance over number of weeks trading with the above hypothetical trades.
It shows that with the above scenario, you will more than double your money in 4 years time. Is that return good enough? Does that take too long to achieve? Depends....
  • #41,094
  • Nov 17, 2012 6:52pm Nov 17, 2012 6:52pm
Quoting umbro
Yes. Correct. I like Oanda because you can trade units (there are some limitations with mt4) and I think is a good starting for a beginner because you can trade real money without risking too much. mine was an example to explain. btw, I didn't want to say you cannot have 100 pips stop loss. You can. As you said you can decrease the value of the pip maintaing the same risk. however in order to be consistent in the long term you need to maintain at least 1:1 Risk/Reward. I don't want to be repetitive but if you base your trading on this basic principle...
yeah, I see your point! I didn't mean to insult your intelligence! great discussion though
I don't trade oanda bc I like mt4 too much...
But yeah 100 pip target with 100 pip loss... it does pose a problem to have a 30 pip tp with 100 sl....
  • #41,095
  • Nov 17, 2012 6:55pm Nov 17, 2012 6:55pm
No problem . however you can use mt4 with oanda. I'm using it.
Quoting dafox1
yeah, I see your point! I didn't mean to insult your intelligence! great discussion though
I don't trade oanda bc I like mt4 too much...
But yeah 100 pip target with 100 pip loss... it does pose a problem to have a 30 pip tp with 100 sl....
  • #41,096
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:05pm Nov 17, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting hansma
S/r areas.

Was asked in pm how I look at price and high volume candles around s+r areas.

This is my take on it, maybe some sonickers will also benefit from it.

p.s the dragon was left out on purpose for the demonstration, but if you apply it you will clearly see the way.

Take care.

H.
as usual your post is always a gem, big up boss!!!
  • #41,097
  • Edited Nov 18, 2012 6:08am Nov 17, 2012 8:28pm | Edited Nov 18, 2012 6:08am
Genius..Genius..Genius.. Hahaha..

Inserted Video


Sonic
  • #41,098
  • Nov 18, 2012 12:05am Nov 18, 2012 12:05am
Good Weekend, everybody
Keep Simple...!
  • #41,099
  • Nov 18, 2012 7:35am Nov 18, 2012 7:35am
Quoting alrightfrank
as usual your post is always a gem, big up boss!!!
Thanks mate
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #41,100
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:40am Nov 18, 2012 9:40am
Quoting umbro
Yes. correct and thank you for the time you spent on doing the simulation. yes, You can win also with a bad R:R if you're lucky. however I'd like to tell you a couple of things. your exercise is based on a strong and difficult hypothesis in reality. You are giving for granted you'll winning 80% of the times (Losing/Winning 1:4). That's difficult in the long term. I suppose a normal trader is at around 60%. Then there are very good traders who can do more. I prefer to be conservative and don't base my simulation/goals only on my trading skills especially...
Thanks umbro. I see. I think we're talking the same point, just different angles. The simulation was just to demonstrate that there are different ways of MM. If it turns out 80% winning is difficult to achieve, then perhaps one could do better MM with better RR. Me? I don't know yet. That's why I'm here to get to know SonicR system. I've been trading for over 4 yrs & have lost lots of my hard earned money. I learnt the hard way that I suck in MM & psychological side of it. Anyway, my goal now is to develop MM that I'm comfortable & have confidence with this system. All the best!
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