EurAnalysis

Careful .... sleep walking

Hello,
I introduce myself also if not maybe the better place but this's the only "square", with other 2-3 thread, that I read.
Sorry for my english.
I'm "prosiak" and I'm in the forex's world by not so much, less than 3month. I tried in demo account for a little time with a minimal tecnic and it wasn't so bad! I decided to enter in real and it's all another world
I think the worst problem is in the "mind", because in real there's panic, scare and something we don't know what we do. ( this's for myself, at the moment ).
So, I follow this thread and other too and they were for me helpful.
I started with my account at 29th october and at election's day I had just 650e plus, then I did a big error, i wanted to trade in the night.I was in right but panic and scare, gave me to close 1-2 times position.
So, to say in better place, from +650e, i had -330e last sunday. In these week, thanks this forum ( than I follow by 1 month ) and thanks other sites with some "signal" i tried to "play" better and I arrived today, before 17.30, with -20e!...so...I was another time right with my "prediction" but I read something on the net and I closed my position to open one short. It was not so bad, because I was near to have +50e profit but i wanted to wait for better. This's a part of myself than I've to work!
So..now...I'm at the start of the week, like sunday ( a little more )... -400e!
At the moment, I think it's better to go to bed, because in these moments ( like you know! ) feeling are under heart and I feel me idiot because I wrong so easy!
But...I feel optimist and I know than in these week I can take profit to erase all or part of my lost.
I read on the forum that it's possibile "down" to 1.26x,I'd like to believe in this, but, what to say?....Like all people said to me and like I learn at myself, it's better to close all position before a new week, and, if we'll be Long or Short, at the moment it's not me so helpful, I've to re-start.
What to say, sorry for my presentation on this thread, but this with other ones, it'll be follow by me!
I wrote these words too because I want to inform all than I don't know "nothing" of forex and if i ask something or say something stupid about this, please, understand me!

Sorry for my english

Nice weekend

prosiak I was once in your shoes. The market demoralized me to the point I questioned I should do this eventhough I belived it way my calling.

Forex is the hardest, easiest money you will ever make....Do I hear an AMEN from the forum?

I am a scalper and I do not use a stop loss for my positions. That is my mentality that fits me just like others perfer longer term trading or use stops.

For me I cant stand taking a loss just to have to trade to make it up only to I end up where I started just to pay the spread twice. Other would say they cant stand the drawdown. To each their own and I can sleep at night....

Since Oct of 2011 I have had over 1000+ wins with 10 losses 3 of which were due to using a laptop touch pad instead of a mouse (Feb 2012) the others were in the last week of Oct 2011 when I was testing my software.

Some would not belive me but I can provide my REAL MONEY transactions from OANDA to silence the nay sayers. The facts are the facts and the record does not lie. Neither do I as I value my intergrety. Its simple I demand excellence of myself.

For what it is worth I got to where I am doing this:

1. When I realized (after being beaten into submission almost to the point of swallowing any number of my handguns) I loved the markets MORE THAN GREED I was on my way.... Greed is one of the 7 deadly for a reason...

Greed and speed both KILL. I have a 1968 Corvette convertable and would never floor the gas pedal for an extended period if I wanted to see sexy mama at home later and not in intensive care...

2. I trade SMALLER THAN RATIONAL because the market is irrational. I only trade one market (Euro) Its better than being a "Jack of all Trades" (American saying) I strive daily to master one.

3. My position size is based on a pryamid formation. Meaning that when the Euro is at 1.3+ my short position size is bigger than when the Euro is at 1.2+ and smaller still if it gets to 1.1+. Inverse sizing for longs. This is because the trend is down and one must plan for a rise beyound your comfort zone - for me that would be 1.35+ because I still have to be a player at that price level and beyond with all of you respected traders.

4. By trade I am a software engineer and database administrator so I wrote a propiratory program to help me with my money management based on the current price of the Euro, my account size, and the number of positions I have active.

It also suggests where I might place another position to avoid a "price plop" (too much position size at a certain place on the chart. This is how I avoid using a SL and withstand a draw down. Speaking of draw down when my account has a DD = or more than 20% I stop trading as the market is telling me I am too greedy for this place and time. The price I pay is I wait and miss some trades until the market heals my draw down. Its better to stand down and live to trade another day than to be put down with a margin close out.

5. 70 % of capital is allocated for short side positions and up to 30% for the long side using a sub account. My inital postion might be 0.13% of account size and grow from there based on what my software tells me the next position size should be going with market bias. Later I can post clips of my software if you like.

MY PHIOLOSPY IS IT'S A WALK TO WEALTH
RATHER THAN A RACE TO RICHES (RUIN)....

6. The sign above my desk says...."High expectations are the key to everything." (Samuel Walton). I took it to heart and spent thousands of hours working on market entries war gamming and with actual trades. I belived I could do better than the average trader who got in the market when A crossed B or Mr Wave said now is the time...

I divide my MT4 and ONANDA platform into 2 parts. The 1H, 4H 1D give me the direction and type of market (trending or range)

For entry I use the ONADA 10M Slow Stocastic and Bolinger Band (WITH CONSIDERATION OF price in regards to HSR) along with the 1M MT4 finger trap for timing entry and exit. All must jive with the 1H. I attached some screen clips. Like a combination lock tumbler all must align or I stand down reading the wealth of intelligence posted here and elsewhere looking to learn learn learn more....

7. AlsoI closely monitor the USDX, Twitter, Real Time Forex News, Forex News, Zero Hedge and this forum for fundementals, breaking news, and what other traders who are WAY smarter than I see. I also watch the SP500, DOW, Oil, Gold, and Silver for liquidity flows.

Using Firefox I have all these tabs open with auto refresh and review them constantly when I am not watching for a set up. At night when Asia is slow I read news articles instead of watching mindless TV with sexy mama... Although she does distract me at times with those short nities with no undies..... Hey all work and no play makes JD kinda dull unless your a hard core trader and she is not....she is just hard core HOT to me...lol

Its alot of work and to some too much work for my style of trading but to me its a labor of love. I wouldnt have it any other way.

In closing Churchill said NEVER NEVER NEVER give up. As long as you learn from your mistakes take his advice to heart.

my friend, you seem like a newbie. this is an advise from a little older newbie. do yourself a HUGE favor: play with little money if possible with negligible. learn the market, gain experience. people spend many years to become consistent traders. forex is a big illusion, thinking of becoming rich in one day could be too dangerous idea.

This week closed with the 2nd possibility of going Long from an attractive Support which is now tested twice and proved buyer position. I had no idea about this move from last couple of hours so my conclusion is below.

1. Smart Money in Play : In that case this move will fade out by next Monday.
2. Actual Buyer Position : Will see another High on Monday.

So, the Trade Strategy would be targetting critical S/D zones by reading H4.

Point to Note, a reversal candle formation in last H4.

Why my picture is on your avatar?

You are fighting with yourself not the market. Try leverage 1:1 or lower and don't use stop loss.

For example:

Account size $100,000. Open 1 standard lot = 100,000 units for EUR/USD. Say you buy at 1.2690 and the price moves to 1.2190 that is -500 pips against you and draw down is only $5,000 or 5% of capital. You will be very lucky to get a draw dawn of 5% with Lev 1:1 because chances are you are going to gain +5%. The penalty for being wrong is the waiting time for the price moving to your favor and close it at strong resistance or if you decided to. Market is there either up or down we can't change that unless you have the resources to determine where the market is going to go to where you wanted. Resources such as $500 billion or $1 trillion.

But if you open 10 standard lots, -500 pips is -$50,000 or 50% draw dawn, panics will take control instead of logic. Don't try scalping if you can not sit in front of PC full time. It will take a lot time and learning about yourself to be a successful scalper and they are of special breed. Not everyone born equal regardless what we lead to believe. Develop your own system. Not a single system will work for two different people.

Fundamental helps to understand where the market is going. You can rely on PipTrapper fundamental outlooks in this thread. You can ask him questions and he is always helpful. He doesn't post as much as he used to.Don't know why, you have to ask him. Maybe he is now too rich, lazy or getting old.

Also, monitoring other major pairs USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, USDX will help to understand the money movement apart from Risk-On and Risk-Off. Having other pairs help me a lot so you can say I am jack of all but master of none.

If you rely on the forums to learn, use the 'ignore' button to put 'shouters' in your ignore list. They offer nothing other than bragging and quoted their own post if the calls hit the mark and disappear if missed or trying to sell you something. These type of shouters come and go declaring themselves 'good' or better than everyone else. Don't waste your time reading their posts.

Perhaps they closed the positions on the weekend.

Thanks for answer in reply my post!
I hope,if possible,to start just by monday with a little profit to give me more optimism to "delete" this gap in my balance. I think it's not so much and I'm sure that if I'll not do the same mistake,I can have a "new life".
I don't hide than I don't use automatic stop loss but I think I'll begin to use a Limit Order to close bad position.
Thanks about your advise and "PipTrader" is just under my eyes ( i read him blog and I hope that he's right in him forecast by monday 16).

At soon!

1H chart...
share this chart .. possible channel .. continuation!!!

hello prosiak a fine first post if i may say so , and welcome to the thread.

we have all been through your experience and feelings at the beggining of our journey, in fact i am still
suffering from them now after 3 years. My advice to you is stop trading and start learning a bit more.

it seems to me that your attempting open heart surgery on a patient armed with a rusty penknife , a length of twine
a a used copy of greys anatomy . i think the patient will die what do you think.

If you wish to continue trading then for gods sake do it for 10cents per pip or less.


there are no short cuts to learning this trade, i have about 5000 hours of chart tilme under my belt and only now are the charts talking to me.
okay they keep lying , but they are begining to make more sense.

my advice to you would be learn / investigate support and resistance (areas where price bounces up or down )

if you are not sure what this is pull up a 4 hour chart and draw horizontal lines where the price turned or which touchs the most candles.
these are areas of support and resistance

once you understand this concept you will have areas where you can place trades with tight stop losses when the price reachs the areas


you have mastered english , i am sure you can master trading.

How will conflict in Gaza make imapct on eur/usd charts? I slightly think that it should add little bit bearish to the pair..

Watch price of Gold and price of Oil. See if Equity markets go up or down. It all depends on the next few days and the reaction to the events.

From WWW.JSMINSET.COM


In The News Today


November 17, 2012, at 1:22 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category In The News
My Dear Friends,
For those who seek to venture into the real math of TA, not the default computer server hog wash, here is something you might consider mind boggling but it works like a laser tool in understanding forward possibilities of everything tradable. Here is an advanced resource that will boggle your mind and, if properly applied, stuff your cash box.
If you think you are dust, dust you are. If you think you are fundamentally divine, divine you will be.
–SSB
Do not say "I can’t understand this," because you can. As you toggle down you will find a simple tool that takes all this math and gives you instant application which is called the Golden Mean Gauge. Even a manipulation is still a market that you can know.
Now move from student to Master on your own energy
Respectfully yours,
Jim
Pi, Phi and Fibonacci
May 15, 2012
Pi, Phi and Fibonacci Numbers
Phi (Φ) and pi (Π) and Fibonacci numbers can be related in several ways:
The Pi-Phi Product and its derivation through limits
The product of phi and pi,
1.618033988… X 3.141592654…, or 5.083203692,
is found in golden geometries:

Golden Circle
Golden Ellipse

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...003_thumb2.gif
Circumference =
p http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...e004_thumb.gif
Area =
p http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...0041_thumb.gif
Ed Oberg and Jay A. Johnson have developed a unique expression for the pi-phi product (pΦ) as a function of the number 2 and an expression they call “The Biwabik Sum,”a function of phi, the set of all odd numbers and the set of all Fibonacci numbers, as follows:

p Phi = 2² {1
+ [ (2/3) / (F1+F2 Phi) + (1/5) / (F3+F4 Phi) - (1/7) / (F5+F6 Phi) ]
- [ (2/9) / (F7+F8 Phi) + (1/11) / (F9+F10 Phi) - (1/13) / (F11+F12 Phi) ]
+ [ (2/15) / (F13+F14 Phi) + (1/17) / (F15+F16 Phi) - (1/19) / (F17+F18 Phi) ]
- … }
= 5.083203692….
This relationship was derived after Oberg noticed an interesting relationship between pi and phi while contemplating geometric questions related to the location of the King and Queen’s burial chambers in the Great Pyramid, Cheops, of Giza, Egypt, the design of which is based on phi.You can access the complete paper published by Ed Oberg and Jay A. Johnson, The Pi-Phi Product, in Word, or the Pi-Phi Product in Excel to see their formulation illustrated numerically.
More…

Ken A said this:

"If you rely on the forums to learn, use the 'ignore' button to put 'shouters' in your ignore list. They offer nothing other than bragging and quoted their own post if the calls hit the mark and disappear if missed or trying to sell you something. These type of shouters come and go declaring themselves 'good' or better than everyone else. Don't waste your time reading their posts."

I hope you were not referring to me. I was trying to help the young trader out as I can relate to his early day frustration just like several others have.

My track record may be unbelivable for the average stop loss Joe trader but is very verifiable because I strived to be the best at everything I do and my unrelenting dedication has finally paid off. I was alone when I was paying my market dues and I paid mightly... a mental and emotional price for my long record of success. In short I earned it the hard way.

I am not bragging but trying to instill hope in the lad that it can be done regardless of your background and insurmountable setbacks.

BTW my software is NOT for sale at any price and I dont remember ever posting any of my calls. I place heavy emphasis on money management in harmony with market bias/liquidity flows rather than where I am prepared to take a loss time and time again hoping my winners out pace my losers over time. That type of group think isnt for me as I am trained in my proffession to think outside the box.

I used caps to place emphaisis on my points. Trading/WINNING is something I am (we are) passionate about. I have no time for losing or breaking even as a way of life. That is how I roll and others roll differently and God bless them. That is what makes the world go round (pardon the pun...lol).

Ken I would respectfully have to dissagree with you in this regard. In my opinion I would never place anyone (even you heaven forbid) on an ignore list. Only God knows when they may say something I can gleam and profit from. Only by keeping one's eyes, ears, and mind open can hope to capture wisdom and therofore a learned oppourtunity even if it was someone else's blood sweat and cash that aquired it.

These past few weeks there has been very little correlation between the price of Oil and Gold vs EUR/USD as well as other currency pairs. I wouldn't use those two instruments to figure out whether or not to buy/sell currency pairs.

Also, if you wait to see what happens to those prices (assuming there IS correlation) then you will miss out on the moves of the currency pairs as you "watch" the movement of Oil and Gold. The above statement doesn't really have anything to do with finding entry points for EUR/USD or any other currency pair for that matter...

Don't worry I wasn't refering you but the trolls lol.

I was just thinking for someone who just started this thang for 3 months reading everything either very confusing or believing everything from those shouters.

I have no reason to doubt your achievement. Good job. Hope to hear from you more often here.

Excellent Resource!

IMHO

Specially for E/U friday last few hours upside move was due to some news related to oil, I can not guide you the exact source now but may be later I will try.

Gold has a definite co-relation to move this pair up and down, and specially in the festive seasons.

Here is the oily Story. GOM rig Explosion.

I think we got side tracked from Buda initial question and I fail to see the price of gold due to Gaza strip conflict. Maybe Crude but not Gold but still can not think of who and why or how it will impact or directly correlated to EUR/USD. In the past the correlation was there also to AUD but not after QE3 Infinity.

'How will conflict in Gaza make imapct on eur/usd charts? I slightly think that it should add little bit bearish to the pair..'