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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #60,841
  • Nov 15, 2012 9:06pm Nov 15, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting Unknownpips
Thanks for the clarification. Really insightful as I hadn't looked into it in that sense. Another question if you could possibly answer - supposing that BOJ do easing on the scale of the feds, and the US economic situation does improve - is this a risk on or risk off scenario? What I mean to say is that, when economic conditions are good in various states, does this improve risk sentiment? Further, does this mean it is essentially a better form of intervention in the grand scheme of things than the silly ones BOJ have done in the past.

For...
The answer is in my #3 point.

Quote
3. The USD is and will be King going forward as the US leads the global recovery and will likely be the first to tighten monetary policy.

If everyone else is easing and the US starts tightening, then capital will flow to US assets. Risk-on/Risk-off is all about safe haven flows which are flows in and out of US and/or Japanese government bond markets. In the scenario outlined in your questions, whilst the flows of capital will be to the USD, they will not be to the bond markets as safe haven flows, but rather to corporate equities and some commodities. Capital seeks yield and if that yield is better found in the US, then that's where the capital flows to.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,842
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:42pm Nov 15, 2012 10:42pm
Thursday Report: Who is buying the EURO? Bear bias all the way

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders.

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to [email protected]) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)

Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend. I will make a FAQ with any questions you have.

**I forgot to change previous report link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post6196578
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 15.11.2012.pdf   765 KB | 317 downloads
  • #60,843
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:21pm Nov 15, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting gino32
Thursday Report: Who is buying the EURO? Bear bias all the way

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders.

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to [email protected]) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)
[font=&quot]
[b]Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend....
hey gino32 thanks for posting these updates! I really appreciate you explaining your thoughts it is helping me learn quite a bit.


I always look forward to reading PT's daily update and your report
  • #60,844
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:25pm Nov 15, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting neuron
hey gino32 thanks for posting these updates! I really appreciate you explaining your thoughts it is helping me learn quite a bit.


I always look forward to reading PT's daily update and your report
Agreed! Thanks Gino!
  • #60,845
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:42pm Nov 15, 2012 11:42pm
what do you guys think? enough to re-spark hope in the euro? is Alpha Bank credible enough for their report to have an impact?




Athens is ahead of its creditors

Unlike in the past, the gov't has done what the EU and IMF required and now waits for them to act

This is the first time that Greece is ahead of developments and is awaiting the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund – its creditors – to meet their commitments and disburse the bailout installments due for the rest of the year, as the government has fulfilled its obligations, according to a weekly report by Alpha Bank on the course of the country’s economy.

The bank’s analysts note that the most significant developments from now on will be the payment soon of the bailout tranches and how those funds will be used...

full story: http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...11/2012_470296
  • #60,846
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:44pm Nov 15, 2012 11:44pm
tnx guys! is very nice to hear that!


Quoting 100PipsADay
Agreed! Thanks Gino!
  • #60,847
  • Edited 2:03am Nov 16, 2012 1:32am | Edited 2:03am
Good morning folks and welcome to yet another Friday with no resolution on the Greek drama.

Speaking of Greece, The IMF chief Christine Lagarde is still sticking to her guns that in the IMF's view, Greek debt sustainability is only achievable if the program is put back on track to meet the target of 120% debt to GDP by 2020... an impossible feat in my personal view. Earlier, Ms, Lagarde was asked if a deal is achievable and her response was... wait for it... "It ain't over till the fat lady sings". That is way too funny. Kind of fits in with the drama bit.

Yesterday the Eurozone economy showed its true colours with yet one more quarter of GDP contraction. Q3 2012 reported GDP for the entire Eurozone came in at -0.1% q/q bringing the total y/y figure to -0.6%. This confirms the Eurozone has slipped back into a recession and with the US fiscal cliff standoff holding back global growth, in my opinion there is zero chance that there will be a bounce in the figure for Q4. Therefore as I already mentioned earlier this week, we need to look at the technicals for the next move.

So, let's look at the technicals... The H1 inverted head and shoulders formation I identified and posted about earlier this week finally reached its target objective yesterday and then made a further move upwards to test 1.2802 and further confirm the previously indicated double top pattern I have also identified. Therefore I am now looking for a measured move down to 1.2466 to complete the formation over the coming week. The Daily chart posted below explains it all. As previously stated I am selling all rallies and now I can be a bit more aggressive with confidence.

So, as always, be well, trade safe, enjoy the ride down and have a great weekend.

E/U Daily:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d1.gif Size: 23 KB



Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2740/50, sell stops just below ahead of larger bids down at 1.2700/10 from funds/ real money/ sovereigns; sell stops below and through 1.2680, Offers 1.2775/85 but larger above at 1.2800/10 sovereigns, SNB related and various European names (200 day MA 1.2810), likely buy stops just above .

Today's Euro FX Option Expiries @ 15:00 GMT:

EUR/USD: 1.2700, 1.2750, 1.2800, 1.2850
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,848
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:43am Nov 16, 2012 1:43am
Quoting neuron
what do you guys think? enough to re-spark hope in the euro? is Alpha Bank credible enough for their report to have an impact?


Athens is ahead of its creditors

Unlike in the past, the gov't has done what the EU and IMF required and now waits for them to act

This is the first time that Greece is ahead of developments and is awaiting the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund – its creditors – to meet their commitments and disburse the bailout installments due for the rest of the year, as the government...
Alpha bank is not the Troika. Their opinion in this matter holds as much water as mine or yours. The fact is that unless the Troika signs the cheque, Greece gets nothing.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,849
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:51am Nov 16, 2012 1:51am
GM - mid Frankies Hour saw a spike down into Pte Jacksons supply area... EUR/USD: Bids 1.2740/50

The low was in 5m & 15m high volumed green hammers, so I took an initial long and am now waiting for the London Open.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #60,850
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:53am Nov 16, 2012 1:53am
Quoting Islander
GM - mid Frankies Hour saw a spike down into Pte Jacksons supply area... EUR/USD: Bids 1.2740/50

The low was in 5m & 15m high volumed green hammers, so I took an initial long and am now waiting for the London Open.....
Good morning Islander. Nice scalp
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,851
  • Nov 16, 2012 2:09am Nov 16, 2012 2:09am
Good Morning fellow traders!
  • #60,852
  • Nov 16, 2012 2:09am Nov 16, 2012 2:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
So, let's look at the technicals... The H1 inverted head and shoulders formation I identified and posted about earlier this week finally reached its target objective yesterday and then made a further move upwards to test 1.2802 and further confirm the previously indicated double top pattern I have also identified. Therefore I am now looking for a measured move down to 1.2466 to complete the formation over the coming week. The Daily chart posted below explains it all. As previously stated I am selling all rallies...
Thank you PipTrapper!

I definitely like that number!

My downside vertical count established from the point inside the yellow circle gives me 1.2350, which is also, I must admit, not a bad number.
But first things first, though, and, in my humble opinion, 1.263 has yet to be achieved.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.PNG Size: 54 KB


Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Thanks.
  • #60,853
  • Nov 16, 2012 2:20am Nov 16, 2012 2:20am
a view on things, i'm short as you can see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro1.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #60,854
  • Nov 16, 2012 2:22am Nov 16, 2012 2:22am
Heloo Everyone, long time i not come here.. Still Bearish view huh.. Interesting..
AM Signal Provider
  • #60,855
  • Nov 16, 2012 2:26am Nov 16, 2012 2:26am
Long RED Candle.
  • #60,856
  • Nov 16, 2012 2:27am Nov 16, 2012 2:27am
Quoting Playboy
Heloo Everyone, long time i not come here.. Still Bearish view huh.. Interesting..
Haha... Were you expecting a neutral view?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,857
  • Nov 16, 2012 2:34am Nov 16, 2012 2:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
Haha... Were you expecting a neutral view?
Haha.. Not yet.. But i have thing before Bear ready for sleep and change with this one..

And i am wrong.. Bear still alive and strong in here..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bull.jpg Size: 61 KB
AM Signal Provider
  • #60,858
  • Nov 16, 2012 3:31am Nov 16, 2012 3:31am
Hi Guy's I have a head and shoulders thats playing out , on the 1H chart, Target somewher 1270X, however it does seem a bit over sold.
Mike
  • #60,859
  • Nov 16, 2012 3:48am Nov 16, 2012 3:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning Islander. Nice scalp

Thanks - LO didnt bring out any buyers, so jumped on the south bound train - but so far today its no express!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #60,860
  • Nov 16, 2012 4:01am Nov 16, 2012 4:01am
EUR/USD - Hourly Technical Analysis (1st Chart)

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Analysis (2nd Chart)

**Strong SELL signals on H1 and D1 time frames for EUR/USD using multiple moving averages as well as multiple technical indicators**
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - Hourly Technical Analysis.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - Daily Technical Analysis.png Size: 41 KB
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