Without vision, the people will perish.
- #7,502
- Nov 15, 2012 12:42pm Nov 15, 2012 12:42pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,959 Posts
I performed a pivots review of EURUSD (actually I performed this analysis for all markets I trade) for the period 10/15/2002 thru 9/28/2012 (so about 10 years) and discovered the following:
~The Low <= S3 5.56% of the time
~The Low <= S2 16.56% of the time
~The Low <= S1 42.60% of the time
~The High >= R1 44.97% of the time
~The High >= R2 18.27% of the time
~The High >= R3 7.19% of the time
What does this mean to me?
Shorting below or near S2 and Buying above or near R2 is a low-probability play.
My procedures were taken...
The problem with statistics is that they can always be interpretated in a different way.
Looking at your results I can see that
When price broke S1, it also broke S2 38.87% of the time
When price broke S2, it also broke S3 33.57% of the time
When price broke R1, it also broke R2 40.63% of the time
When price broke R2, it also broke R3 39.35% of the time
So, particularly with the resistance in your results,there is statistically little difference of probable success between taking a long at R1 or R2. Price is likely to hit the next resistance approx 40% of the time in both cases.
Using your stistics in another way, I wonder if it strengthens the case for simply setting SL to B/E when R1 is hit and letting the trade run.
As an example
There is 30 pips between DP and R1 and 30 pips between R1 and R2.
You are very unlikely to enter a trade exactly on DP, so assume 10 pips above.
If TP at R1 =20 pips profit
Price then has a 40% chance of hitting R2 which will increase profit to 50 pips
Of course, we have no idea how often price would come back to B/E before continuing on to R2.
Also, if R2 is not hit, where/when to exit?
Food for thought.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
- #7,503
- Nov 15, 2012 4:47pm Nov 15, 2012 4:47pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Finally stopped out at +77 pips
So i end the day happy with my first Genesis trade.
Thanks to everyone on the Genesis team.
Ta Hui
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
- #7,504
- Edited 6:01pm Nov 15, 2012 4:52pm | Edited 6:01pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
- #7,511
- Nov 16, 2012 2:06am Nov 16, 2012 2:06am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,959 Posts
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
