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  • #718,401
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:43pm Nov 15, 2012 10:43pm
Thursday Report: Who is buying the EURO? Bear bias all the way

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders.

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to [email protected]) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)

Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend. I will make a FAQ with any questions you have.

**I forgot to change previous report link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post6196578
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 15.11.2012.pdf   765 KB | 230 downloads
  • #718,402
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:47pm Nov 15, 2012 10:47pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
I agree, I am playing around with some old charts have posted, this one is interesting, if you accept swissy is generally contrarian eu

chart is swissy daily and show a zone I was expect bull to defend, I am updating as was posted 30th Sept was close to months end and was finallizing November trade plans will get in a minute, the update is quite interesting for swissy bull & eu bears
morning..
My take for the little Dollar..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #718,403
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:49pm Nov 15, 2012 10:49pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
This is same but updated
Swissy Daily things of interest is where pa is right now, she above battle zone & bounced ontop of falling chanel / "bearflag" also now sit ontop 200 sma
I think is this utl of falling channel holds, this flags pole has some major pip, which accordingly eu should drop like a rock, so for me the utl of the falling chanel will be next area of interest, doubt it today because friday normally crappy pa, also low data, but never know sometime bigger move happen when you least expect it

In a minute I will have...
Chart Monthly ( updated one cause one posted last month not much has changed) and 1hr

Monthly points of interest-
Previous November Candles both "Bear" both in bull market and bear market
200sma is start to roll over from flat, 50sma is tracking down
I defend my monthly level 3108 , septembr reject this and november open below rising tl, this was my trigger for another bearish november, and accordingly day trading short all month, this sentiment will only be negated by a HH which I will again look to defend 3108
note november vertical line is moved over to december so can track candle)
Next bearish continuation trigger will be breach of next monthly level 2619 and then a new previous low etc etc
Daily points of interest-

Last night I get little grumpy with cave dweller and I apologise, but as can see was not trigger for bulls in charge, merely bulls push little pimple up to utl of rising chanel / bearflag
Clearly trend as per chart is bearish, (since mid October) this could be beginning of bulls taking over or this could be a correction, a breach of the utl of this channel still is not bull trend, would need a breach of the blue falling tl and retest to confirm bulls have taken over train
Trade plan could be sell rallies and/or buy ltl of chanel anywhere in between is gunslinger territory
Biggest could stuff up plan is Boj continue stuffing pa Snb (press release today)

Hope this help traders see another perspective
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #718,404
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:21pm Nov 15, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting tankokjian
if i have deep pocket i would just keep selling EU . last few days the bulls are climbing up bits by bits , not convincing because we are still very bearish. bulls need a push from somewhere first, else look for shorts
The Great Majella Black Hole..
FX Dollar Depository for Bulls & Bears who dance with a wrong left foot..

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  • #718,405
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:27pm Nov 15, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
I agree, I am playing around with some old charts have posted, this one is interesting, if you accept swissy is generally contrarian eu

chart is swissy daily and show a zone I was expect bull to defend, I am updating as was posted 30th Sept was close to months end and was finallizing November trade plans will get in a minute, the update is quite interesting for swissy bull & eu bears
what do you think this USDCHF chart?

USDCHF is in triangle area.

a few days...
- up broken --> usd smile, euro cry
- dn broken --> ......

but... eurozone is bad status.

so i think up broken
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  • #718,406
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:31pm Nov 15, 2012 11:31pm
1.2750 make or break.
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #718,407
  • Nov 16, 2012 12:02am Nov 16, 2012 12:02am
BREAK, BREAK lol...
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #718,408
  • Nov 16, 2012 12:13am Nov 16, 2012 12:13am
Quoting neojigi
what do you think this USDCHF chart?

USDCHF is in triangle area.

a few days...
- up broken --> usd smile, euro cry
- dn broken --> ......

but... eurozone is bad status.

so i think up broken
not enough info to use with confidence , however the priciple is ok, daily charts can take weeks even months sometime to play out
have to be careful with swissy and yen charts, they have been heavily influenced / altered pa thru interventions / manipulations

the chart normally is in down trend, with a possible corection underway, however the low is an alltime low or extreme low, this brings in other dynamics add to this SNB has a floor in place, not this specific pair, but it is influenced by the chf floor

so bro I use monthly charts to find levels of interest, when pa enter these levels / zones, I include in all other calculations, not necesarily trade them, thne start working down thru timeframes,

although forex is not built on logics, overall when shit is about to hit the fans, any pair at extreme levels already, are going to react the most voilen, I think anyway
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #718,409
  • Nov 16, 2012 12:13am Nov 16, 2012 12:13am
Break? Not quite yet, just moved back into the triangle.

I been short looking for a break to the bottom. Lets see if we can get some selling pressure here.
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  • #718,410
  • Nov 16, 2012 12:45am Nov 16, 2012 12:45am
Quoting cdndollar
The Great Majella Black Hole..
FX Dollar Depository for Bulls & Bears who dance with a wrong left foot..

Attachment
that's why dogs can't dance because they have 2 left foot.

always keep 2 feet out the door if you're a dog but watch that back leg.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #718,411
  • Nov 16, 2012 12:47am Nov 16, 2012 12:47am
Quoting england33
that's why dogs can't dance because they have 2 left foot.

always keep 2 feet out the door if you're a dog.
Inserted Video


They can too!
Not all sins are created equal
  • #718,412
  • Nov 16, 2012 12:51am Nov 16, 2012 12:51am
Quoting Jay Walker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaIS7E_B9wQ

They can too!
quiet you're ruining the joke.
Inserted Video
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #718,413
  • Nov 16, 2012 12:57am Nov 16, 2012 12:57am
Kiwi, any idea what this SNB president may direct the USDCHF to which direction?!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #718,414
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:04am Nov 16, 2012 1:04am
Quoting 21vs7
ok, managed to get 83,5...lets see...tight
njah out on BE over assia foookers

euraud closed +15 and +37

ej and etry position trade loooking solid atm

morning!
______________
so we arrived to 51 then..
  • #718,415
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:05am Nov 16, 2012 1:05am
Well, i saw it bearish and got in short.
For technical reasons.
Then i thought more; there are also several geopolitical issues that can make the dollar jump [up]...
Crude looks bearish also, depression likely to happen.

AUD strenght made all minerals suppliers to rise prices or are just about to make it, Japan clearly affected.

Then, the JPY fall will trigger the rise of the USD.
Then; EU products are so cool and expensive...

We'll see.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #718,416
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:05am Nov 16, 2012 1:05am
Bear is comming to town. Ready your big gun for this..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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1M & 5M scalper. 1Malaysia..
  • #718,417
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:14am Nov 16, 2012 1:14am
Quoting Vachus
Kiwi, any idea what this SNB president may direct the USDCHF to which direction?!

hey bro, in teleconference now, nothing on wires, going to have to watch pa for any sort of pre speech leaks, I have all ladies up, just standard pa so far 8 20 8 25 is normally get early reaction, they keeping this one tight by the looks everyone getting jittery with middle east developments,

might pay to stay aside anything under 4hrs might not be respected,
i just post daily earlier, could use the as guide tech say swissy gonna fly and eu will be brick, but never trust power of blabber mouths

i bb closer to blabbermouth
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #718,418
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:14am Nov 16, 2012 1:14am
Quoting england33
that's why dogs can't dance because they have 2 left foot.

always keep 2 feet out the door if you're a dog but watch that back leg.
well.. if they can't dance.. they can always try doing this for clarity of the mind..

Attached Image
  • #718,419
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:15am Nov 16, 2012 1:15am
euro/us dollar rose during the thursday section that you can see, but fail to break above 1.2800 level. This area (1.2800) is certainly resistance as far we can see, as such we are not interesting in buying this pair until it's well above 1.2800 or selling below 1.2700 on daily close. At this point time do not have that. and you also can see 100 days exposition moving average has added as resistance for second days a row third days - last 5 or 6 trade section. because of this we think it will be a short term trader market during friday section, we could see some weakness, afterall euro is just enter receptions. All things we could do is dont expect hole lot of action for next 24 hours or less, of course if some kind of headline news could rock the market conditions.
  • #718,420
  • Nov 16, 2012 1:16am Nov 16, 2012 1:16am
Quoting cdndollar
well.. if they can't dance.. they can always try doing this for clarity of the mind..

Attachment
All together now...

"Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooof!"
Not all sins are created equal
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