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  • #60,821
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:16pm Nov 15, 2012 12:16pm
First time being accused of a liar. That hurts
  • #60,822
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:18pm Nov 15, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting Ken A
First time being accused of a liar. That hurts
Yeah ! But you are a smart and nice liar. Not like others
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #60,823
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:23pm Nov 15, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Ken A lies.. I'm no guru.. I just have relatively better success. There are others out there far better than I. Unfortunately they don't share their wisdom in public forums LOL
When a girl denies that she is pretty being praised, it means she is asking for more
  • #60,824
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:47pm Nov 15, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Ken A lies.. I'm no guru.. I just have relatively better success. There are others out there far better than I. Unfortunately they don't share their wisdom in public forums LOL
Nice, will be fun to be around you guys, hope to bring something to the thread and so you guys know a bit about me:

Started trading 2 years ago, left it for a bit and am now back since 6 Weeks. There was someone on here called Cloggie a while back and he helped me alot! Am now profitable and trading Fibre and E/Y and looking to improve so that I can go Live and Fulltime in 6 months time. I will have income for 5 years but will be fulltime forex and looking to make it my life. Never risk more than 1% of account and have been making good returns because I scale into my trades having sometimes double my position size but still risking 1%.

So, hope we can all help each other out, I'm new to EY but see it is 86% correlated to Fibre and took my 1st profits from her tonight. Fibre has had a terrible ADR and last two days had been the final straw and soo I added Euro Yen. Example was SPX tanking HARD while fibre was going up and alot of NORMAL tech analysis pointing down but it just kept going up. Would get a nice move downwards and then move up 30pips in 5 Min :-D Killed two of my trades :-D

Hopefully adding EY will help to give a better understanding of Fibre and also an alternate trade on days where fibre is slow...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #60,825
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:47pm Nov 15, 2012 12:47pm
Is there any substantiated reason other than pure manipulation, as to why with all this poor data coming out of EZ, market is pretty much still in a RISK on mode? The rhetoric out of Japan has been the same for a long while now - why then should a change in the leadership really change that much. At the end of the day its the BOJ that is in charge of handling the perceived yen strength. Yet after many, many months they have done nothing but a few feeble intervetions.

Why should this sudden surge in yen selling go without any retracement? Smells like something rotten. But I guess the main driver is the US fiscal cliff rather than eurozone crisis.

I am baffled really with the two day surge ahead on the yen pairs even with lacklustre ez data.
  • #60,826
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:58pm Nov 15, 2012 12:58pm
I am not sure if BOJ didn't do anything to weaken the YEN but from the news, few hundred billion equivalent of $US has been thrown in the markets. We always call it 'manipulation' for something we don't understand but IF I look at the charts as explained in above posts, it made perfect sense to me and I don't see it as 'manipulation'.
  • #60,827
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:58pm Nov 15, 2012 1:58pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This week chart.
It went nowhere.
- started around: 1.2710
- minimum around: 1.2660
- maximum around: 1.2805

maximum 140 pip in whole week

I am trying to figure out where could this move FRIDAY, which is a very special day, it's FRIDAY...
- was this a Fibo retracement only and it will got to DOWN? (4h chart)
- or we just started the Fibo retracement on Daily chart so it will go a lot UP?

US new weren't shiny today, but either EUR isn't increasing with Greece money suckers.
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #60,828
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:05pm Nov 15, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting Ken A
I am not sure if BOJ didn't do anything to weaken the YEN but from the news, few hundred billion equivalent of $US has been thrown in the markets. We always call it 'manipulation' for something we don't understand but IF I look at the charts as explained in above posts, it made perfect sense to me and I don't see it as 'manipulation'.
Ken do you have a link for the news you refer, please.
Thanks.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #60,829
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:16pm Nov 15, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting maximinus
Ken do you have a link for the news you refer, please.
Thanks.
I was listening to Bloomberg TV.

And you can always pick up from Forexlive if you check it regularly.
  • #60,830
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:42pm Nov 15, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting Ken A
I am not sure if BOJ didn't do anything to weaken the YEN but from the news, few hundred billion equivalent of $US has been thrown in the markets. We always call it 'manipulation' for something we don't understand but IF I look at the charts as explained in above posts, it made perfect sense to me and I don't see it as 'manipulation'.
What I meant was that it seems very odd that this move would have happened considering the fundemental factors behind it. From a technical view, the move was already made when I saw the inverse hs on the gbpjpy pair. Anyway what I am more interested in is whether or not this recent move has more steam. Especially considering we are below the weekly declining trendline.

A break here would definitely expose the upside but does a move higher fundementally have any legs to stand on? The Japanese election is not even till next month so I don't really know.
  • #60,831
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:56pm Nov 15, 2012 2:56pm
hey bro.. what about euro/usd? now will up or down?
  • #60,832
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:56pm Nov 15, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting Unknownpips
What I meant was that it seems very odd that this move would have happened considering the fundemental factors behind it. From a technical view, the move was already made when I saw the inverse hs on the gbpjpy pair. Anyway what I am more interested in is whether or not this recent move has more steam. Especially considering we are below the weekly declining trendline.

A break here would definitely expose the upside but does a move higher fundementally have any legs to stand on? The Japanese election is not even till next month so I don't really...
I have no answer for that. I even closed my short at 1.2800 for 9 pips because of the leverage used and being safe. At this point I am not going to rely on technical. This EURO bull is not fundamental either but simply money moves around seeking quick profit. If I had to guess yes I think it will go higher.
  • #60,833
  • Nov 15, 2012 3:07pm Nov 15, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting Unknownpips
What I meant was that it seems very odd that this move would have happened considering the fundemental factors behind it. From a technical view, the move was already made when I saw the inverse hs on the gbpjpy pair. Anyway what I am more interested in is whether or not this recent move has more steam. Especially considering we are below the weekly declining trendline.

A break here would definitely expose the upside but does a move higher fundementally have any legs to stand on? The Japanese election is not even till next month so I don't really...
The findamentals behind the move are...

1. The Japanese economy doesn't have legs under it.
2. The BOJ has committed to targeting a 3% inflation and easing in perpetuity till they reach it.
3. The USD is and will be King going forward as the US leads the global recovery and will likely be the first to tighten monetary policy.

Remember that the market prices in what they speculate for the future... and not the current situation.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,834
  • Nov 15, 2012 3:10pm Nov 15, 2012 3:10pm
Quoting rashidfx
hey bro.. what about euro/usd? now will up or down?
Now is where it is now. Later depends on how much later. What time frame are you referring to?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,835
  • Nov 15, 2012 3:20pm Nov 15, 2012 3:20pm
Quoting rashidfx
hey bro.. what about euro/usd? now will up or down?
On my MT4, now it is at 1.2779. It will hit 1.2780 and 1.2778
  • #60,836
  • Nov 15, 2012 3:26pm Nov 15, 2012 3:26pm
Quoting Ken A
On my MT4, now it is at 1.2779. It will hit 1.2780 and 1.2778
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,837
  • Nov 15, 2012 3:53pm Nov 15, 2012 3:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
The findamentals behind the move are...

1. The Japanese economy doesn't have legs under it.
2. The BOJ has committed to targeting a 3% inflation and easing in perpetuity till they reach it.
3. The USD is and will be King going forward as the US leads the global recovery and will likely be the first to tighten monetary policy.

Remember that the market prices in what they speculate for the future... and not the current situation.
Thanks for the clarification. Really insightful as I hadn't looked into it in that sense. Another question if you could possibly answer - supposing that BOJ do easing on the scale of the feds, and the US economic situation does improve - is this a risk on or risk off scenario? What I mean to say is that, when economic conditions are good in various states, does this improve risk sentiment? Further, does this mean it is essentially a better form of intervention in the grand scheme of things than the silly ones BOJ have done in the past.

For the Japaenese economy to improve - a weakening of the yen therefore surely paves a way out of the falling wedge.
  • #60,838
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:01pm Nov 15, 2012 4:01pm
It really depends on what your definition of Risk-On and Risk-Off. If US economy improves I would guess it will be Risk-On in US (but not globally) and some money is out of US bonds and dollar repatriation into US assets.

We always relate AUD as Risk-On currency but this was not the case for the past few weeks but, because it offers better yield and relatively safe while it's Risk-Off globally.
  • #60,839
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:23pm Nov 15, 2012 4:23pm
Quoting Ken A
I was listening to Bloomberg TV.

And you can always pick up from Forexlive if you check it regularly.
Thanks.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #60,840
  • Nov 15, 2012 8:00pm Nov 15, 2012 8:00pm
So far seems good, but there has to be a deciding move.

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