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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #60,761
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:13am Nov 15, 2012 2:13am
Quoting 100PipsADay
AUD...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,762
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:25am Nov 15, 2012 2:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hint 3:
Attachment
ROFL
  • #60,763
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:30am Nov 15, 2012 2:30am
If things goes well now ....

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  • #60,764
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:01am Nov 15, 2012 4:01am
Hello PT,

maybe you remember, I joined this superb thread in May, made some posts and charts very carefully, because Iīm still a beginner in forex, (though i am an old man :-))and then was out of the business for private reasons, but now back again.
May i ask a question, please?
Why is the Yen "melting down" in a risk-off scenario? I donīt understand, because I always thought, the Yen is a "safe haven" like the Dollar.
On occasions like this i see how poor my knowlrdge still is. I would really appreciate a short explanation.
Thank you very much in advance!
  • #60,765
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:18am Nov 15, 2012 4:18am
Important levels to watch according to my chart.

1.2730 -- was a resistance level, now becomes a support level.
1.2770 -- a resistance level plus the price touches the upper trend line here.
1.2710 -- a level that could be considered a sell signal although there is a possibility that the price after having touched the lower trend line at this level might bounce off it.

Hope this is somehow correlated with your charts.

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Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Thanks.
  • #60,766
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:22am Nov 15, 2012 4:22am
Quoting mahogany
Hello PT,

maybe you remember, I joined this superb thread in May, made some posts and charts very carefully, because Iīm still a beginner in forex, (though i am an old man :-))and then was out of the business for private reasons, but now back again.
May i ask a question, please?
Why is the Yen "melting down" in a risk-off scenario? I donīt understand, because I always thought, the Yen is a "safe haven" like the Dollar.
On occasions like this i see how poor my knowlrdge still is. I would really appreciate a short explanation.
Thank you...
Hi Mahogany... Welcome back. Yes, I do remember you.

To put it quite simply, Japan's economy is in the pooper and that is further being exacerbated by recent political uncertainty. Add to that an even more uncertain economic outlook in the entire region, and you've got yourself some Asian risk aversion.

The JPY has never been worthy of the title "Safe Haven", but it seems the market had a different idea. It always puzzled me as to why it was seen as such, but I suppose that although Japan hasn't much to offer in the way of ROI, it did until now provide stability and credibility. That's all over now... at least for now anyway.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,767
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:28am Nov 15, 2012 4:28am
Hi Mahogany,

Here are a few articles which explain the fundamental problems that Japan is facing at this time.

http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/0...vernment-debt/

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/why-t...e-49832?FIELD9

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/sover...-of-pain-50310

http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-will-decline/

http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/jap...rap-2012-11-01


PT,

Hope you don't mind me posting this. If so, I can delete it and private message him. It's some good info though!
  • #60,768
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:35am Nov 15, 2012 4:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hi Mahogany... Welcome back. Yes, I do remember you.

To put it quite simply, Japan's economy is in the pooper and that is further being exacerbated by recent political uncertainty. Add to that an even more uncertain economic outlook in the entire region, and you've got yourself some Asian risk aversion.

The JPY has never been worthy of the title "Safe Haven", but it seems the market had a different idea. It always puzzled me as to why it was seen as such, but I suppose that although Japan hasn't much to offer in the way of ROI, it did until...
Thank you very much again for sharing your knowledge. So far, I understand your explanation, but is the US-economy not in big trouble too?
How will they pay back depts of 17 Trillion, just to mention one problem?
OK, i will make my own thoughts about this, maybe i srtill think to "short" for a macro-economic view.
Thanks again and keep up your good work.
All the best for you!
mahogany
  • #60,769
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:39am Nov 15, 2012 4:39am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hi Mahogany,

Here are a few articles which explain the fundamental problems that Japan is facing at this time.

http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/0...vernment-debt/

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/why-t...e-49832?FIELD9

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/sover...-of-pain-50310

http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-will-decline/

http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/jap...rap-2012-11-01...
Oh, thank you very much too for your reply, of course i appreciate every feedback from all members. I will read this articles now. They sure will help to widen my view
  • #60,770
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:43am Nov 15, 2012 4:43am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hi Mahogany,

Here are a few articles which explain the fundamental problems that Japan is facing at this time.

http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/0...vernment-debt/

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/why-t...e-49832?FIELD9

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/sover...-of-pain-50310

http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-will-decline/

http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/jap...rap-2012-11-01


PT,

Hope you don't mind me posting this. If so, I can delete it and private message him. It's some good info though!

Why would I mind? This is an excellent post. Thanks for your contribution
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,771
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:45am Nov 15, 2012 4:45am
Quoting mahogany
Thank you very much again for sharing your knowledge. So far, I understand your explanation, but is the US-economy not in big trouble too?
How will they pay back depts of 17 Trillion, just to mention one problem?
OK, i will make my own thoughts about this, maybe i srtill think to "short" for a macro-economic view.
Thanks again and keep up your good work.
All the best for you!
mahogany
I don't think it matters how the US will pay back all that debt. What matters is that they will in fact pay it... even if the Fed has to print the money on their own balance sheet to do it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,772
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:49am Nov 15, 2012 4:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
Why would I mind? This is an excellent post. Thanks for your contribution
Cool! Well it's not really related to EUR...

By the way, even with all of that information this year in regards to Japan I don't have any long term U/J positions...
  • #60,773
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:52am Nov 15, 2012 4:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't think it matters how the US will pay back all that debt. What matters is that they will in fact pay it... even if the Fed has to print the money on their own balance sheet to do it.
  • #60,774
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:53am Nov 15, 2012 4:53am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Cool! Well it's not really related to EUR...

By the way, even with all of that information this year in regards to Japan I don't have any long term U/J positions...
we can consider it's related to the EUR/JPY
  • #60,775
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:54am Nov 15, 2012 4:54am
Quoting wingou
we can consider it's related to the EUR/JPY
Hahaha. True!
  • #60,776
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:56am Nov 15, 2012 4:56am
Quoting wingou
we can consider it's related to the EUR/JPY
Yep!
  • #60,777
  • Nov 15, 2012 5:07am Nov 15, 2012 5:07am
Quoting wingou
we can consider it's related to the EUR/JPY
Exactly
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,778
  • Nov 15, 2012 5:46am Nov 15, 2012 5:46am
looks like its stalling out...small indecision candles on the 1 and 4 hr. Maybe break of 1.2750 will bring small scalp t0 1.2725...LOL...Thats my greed talking...Think I'll hold pat today...Good luck guys...
Man of Leisure Trading Co
  • #60,779
  • Nov 15, 2012 6:15am Nov 15, 2012 6:15am
Quoting wolf7050
looks like its stalling out...small indecision candles on the 1 and 4 hr. Maybe break of 1.2750 will bring small scalp t0 1.2725...LOL...Thats my greed talking...Think I'll hold pat today...Good luck guys...
i bet you $1 we will see 128+ today!
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #60,780
  • Nov 15, 2012 6:16am Nov 15, 2012 6:16am
one of the best buying opportunities during the last few weeks would be above 1.27760
1_MACD is obviously weakening
2_almost completed H&S
3_if 1.27760 be broken 2 important lines are broken too==>1_23.6% of fibonacci from 1.31382. 2_ expansion fibo of (1.31690_1.28040)
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There is no randomness. It is just Chaos, a higher form of order.
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