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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,941
  • Nov 14, 2012 2:31pm Nov 14, 2012 2:31pm
- Dollar/Yen Daily.

- Cheers.
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  • #31,942
  • Nov 14, 2012 10:10pm Nov 14, 2012 10:10pm
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Dollar/Yen Daily.

- Cheers.
Here comes the spike for yen pairs
  • #31,943
  • Nov 14, 2012 10:29pm Nov 14, 2012 10:29pm
Looks like the spike is over. Bears got her now. Back down to 80.2
  • #31,944
  • Nov 14, 2012 10:53pm Nov 14, 2012 10:53pm
Or not
  • #31,945
  • Nov 14, 2012 10:53pm Nov 14, 2012 10:53pm
Okay...
I don't get it. They say they're going to hold off on intervention but the pairs spike anyway? What is going on? Are algos running this entire market or what?
Or the Japanese are comfortable with Xinping Ji as Chinese leader?
  • #31,946
  • Nov 14, 2012 10:58pm Nov 14, 2012 10:58pm
Quoting Orly
Okay...
I don't get it. They say they're going to hold off on intervention but the pairs spike anyway? What is going on? Are algos running this entire market or what?
its bullish because intervention dont work
  • #31,947
  • Nov 14, 2012 11:00pm Nov 14, 2012 11:00pm
Abe which is the next expected Japanese PM is quite influential when he makes comments.

he stated earlier that he wants unlimited easing to achieve 2-3% inflation which caused the first big jump
and the 2nd point that cause the next jump was that he proposes having 0 rates or negative rates to spur lending..

81 in sight
  • #31,948
  • Edited 11:07pm Nov 14, 2012 11:06pm | Edited 11:07pm
Interesting....

This pair starts to move and all I read is that people want to short into the strength.

As for why it moved tonight - do a little google news search......Noda dissolved parliament and called for elections.

It is no mystery.

Now.....back to my hole I go....................


Quoting Orly
Okay...
I don't get it. They say they're going to hold off on intervention but the pairs spike anyway? What is going on? Are algos running this entire market or what?
Or the Japanese are comfortable with Xinping Ji as Chinese leader?
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #31,949
  • Nov 14, 2012 11:07pm Nov 14, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting sidhujag
its bullish because intervention dont work
He did that yesterday.
  • #31,950
  • Nov 14, 2012 11:21pm Nov 14, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting Orly
Okay...
I don't get it. They say they're going to hold off on intervention but the pairs spike anyway? What is going on? Are algos running this entire market or what?
Or the Japanese are comfortable with Xinping Ji as Chinese leader?
So, next time GBPUSD jumps up, may I assume that it's a BOE intervention?
  • #31,951
  • Nov 14, 2012 11:43pm Nov 14, 2012 11:43pm
The jump is because ABE the man expected to win the snap election is talking very tough on the yen and bank of Japan.

I don't think Noda has actually called the election yet but I may be wrong.
  • #31,952
  • Nov 14, 2012 11:48pm Nov 14, 2012 11:48pm
Quoting brinks
The jump is because ABE the man expected to win the snap election is talking very tough on the yen and bank of Japan.

I don't think Noda has actually called the election yet but I may be wrong.
But we all know he can talk as much as he wants to. His words mean nothing.
  • #31,953
  • Nov 14, 2012 11:51pm Nov 14, 2012 11:51pm
Quoting Orly
But we all know he can talk as much as he wants to. His words mean nothing.
This is very true yes and as you say the Japanese leaders have always talked to much.

It will be interesting running into the election in mid December.
  • #31,954
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:14am Nov 15, 2012 12:14am
highly doubt the new leader can achieve anything, if it is so easy what do you think the current government is doing? To my impression the current government is already quite dovish on this front and they still achieved little.

Quoting Orly
But we all know he can talk as much as he wants to. His words mean nothing.
  • #31,955
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:26am Nov 15, 2012 12:26am
I think this just shows that if a new election will be held next month and Abe being the opposition leader.. he is just showing his aggressive stance towards the BoJ and how he will push for unlimited easing..

when compared with other asian countries that say "they will closely monitor the FX rate".. Japan isn't one that will bluff.. usually when they do intervene it is rather significant..
perhaps some can remember after the Nuclear Plant that they had the G7 CBs intervene together and also the BOJ independently as well.

if he does win.. should be bullish for U/J
and probably bearish for AXJ currencies simply due to the weight of the basket for asian currencies

if he does win, a longer term view would be long U/J and short AXJ which is pretty much nothing new from current views..
  • #31,956
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:37am Nov 15, 2012 12:37am
well, I am guessing the spike is more about Japan bad econ numbers and the chaos leading to an abrupt election. I don't feel it's about possible BOJ intervention and we all saw what happened after their interventions.



Quoting shekimoto
I think this just shows that if a new election will be held next month and Abe being the opposition leader.. he is just showing his aggressive stance towards the BoJ and how he will push for unlimited easing..

when compared with other asian countries that say "they will closely monitor the FX rate".. Japan isn't one that will bluff.. usually when they do intervene it is rather significant..
perhaps some can remember after the Nuclear Plant that they had the G7 CBs intervene together and also the BOJ independently as well.

if he does win.. should...
  • #31,957
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:51am Nov 15, 2012 12:51am
Talk is always cheap. And if he does not win the election, then the arse will fall out of the USDJPY.
  • #31,958
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:53am Nov 15, 2012 12:53am
Quoting Mpt
Talk is always cheap. And if he does not win the election, then the arse will fall out of the USDJPY.
I was thinking the same thinkg. The Japanese respect honour and it seems that with Noda sticking to his word and calling the election, that will win a lot of points.
  • #31,959
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:54am Nov 15, 2012 12:54am
Quoting Orly
I was thinking the same thinkg. The Japanese respect honour and it seems that with Noda sticking to his word and calling the election, that will win a lot of points.
Yep!
  • #31,960
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:56am Nov 15, 2012 12:56am
this definitely wasn't a BOJ intervention..
when they intervene they move about 1 big figure (based on previous interventions)
but like you said.. talk is cheap.. every single one of their politicians have been reiterating the same thing..

i think its just big players in the market will respond to that and jump on the wagon.
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