EUR/JPY is having a tug with EUR/USD. E/J (102.58) moves +100 pips and drag E/U higher. Also EUR/AUD.
- #60,742
- Nov 14, 2012 11:39am Nov 14, 2012 11:39am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Thank you FOMC for giving us a climax for the day.
Unfortunately you came 10 pips shy of completing the inverted H/S formation measured target.
E/U H1:
Unfortunately you came 10 pips shy of completing the inverted H/S formation measured target.
E/U H1:
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #60,743
- Nov 14, 2012 11:45am Nov 14, 2012 11:45am
If what we can see inside the yellow circle turns out to be a bottom pattern at the end of a downtrend we can establish a new horizontal count, which yields 1.290. Surely we have to first reach 1.2780-1.2790 at least and break the upper trend line and then we also have 1.2840 in sight as well...
The last column of Xs (green) is also the biggest yet since the beginning of the downtrend at 1.3130 (10 boxes), but this may be completely irrelevant.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Thanks.
The last column of Xs (green) is also the biggest yet since the beginning of the downtrend at 1.3130 (10 boxes), but this may be completely irrelevant.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Thanks.
- #60,744
- Nov 14, 2012 3:38pm Nov 14, 2012 3:38pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
Thank you FOMC for giving us a climax for the day.
Unfortunately you came 10 pips shy of completing the inverted H/S formation measured target.
E/U H1:
Attachment
now 1.26?
- #60,746
- Nov 14, 2012 11:21pm Nov 14, 2012 11:21pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #60,747
- Edited 2:21am Nov 15, 2012 12:04am | Edited 2:21am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning fellow traders. It's a beautiful day here, so I'm not going to sit at this computer for too long as I plan on getting out and enjoying the sunshine and fresh air. However, before I get going, I thought I would post an update on where we stand on this stubborn yet shaky pair.
The market focus right now is threefold. Primarily we have the ongoing issues on Greece's debt sustainability. Additionally we have the situations in Spain, Italy and now France. Finally we have the tensions over the US fiscal cliff and what it means to market participants and the US economy in general.
Greece is in a pickle. Of that there is absolutely no doubt. The issue at hand is the release of the next €31.5 billion aid tranche which is being held back while the IMF and the EU (two members of the Troika) bicker over what is considered sustainable for Greece's piling debt burden. Of course no matter what they do or decide, my strong view is that Greece's debt is not and will never be sustainable without a major haircut or debt forgiveness. However, the Troika are not in a position to admit that, so for now they will just argue over whether the target should be 120% debt to GDP ratio by 2020 or 125% debt to GDP ratio by 2022... and while they argue such nonsense, they both realize that a 160% to 190% debt to GDP ration is the best they will see without having to take a loss on what has already been disbursed. It's a bit of a hot potato situation because they cannot take any losses until after the German general elections next year because if they do, then Angela Merkel will surely lose. When someone owes the bank €100,000 and they cannot pay, it is their problem. When someone owes the bank €150 Billion and they cannot pay, it is the bank's problem. Greece knows this and they will play their cards accordingly. In the meantime, the markets will tread cautiously because a Greek default or exit from the Eurozone will cost many hundreds of billions if not more than a trillion Euros when you add up all the cascading consequences. On top of that, a Greek Exit or default will be very contagious.
Spain is next... Make no mistake about that. Their banks are in a right mess and as long as the Eurozone cartel in Brussels keep dragging their feet on these issues, the situation will keep worsening. Once Spain is forced into applying for ESM/OMT aid, they will surely be heading down the same path as Greece where the people will reject the required austerity measures, corruption will take over, the debt will just grow larger and what's left of the economy will get flushed down the toilet. Should that happen, Italy and France will not be very far behind. Let's hope for the best on this one.
The US Fiscal Cliff is bad for global growth no matter how you slice it. No matter what the President, the Senate and the House decide and agree to, fiscal adjustments have to be implemented and that is never good for growth. If the US is not growing, then neither is the rest of the world. In the meantime, there is much fear by investors that their 2013 taxes on capital gains will rise, so the obvious play is to cash in their profits before the end of 2012. Furthermore, small business in the US (the driving force behind the great economic engine) are reluctant to expand or hire new staff out of uncertainty over their tax burdens and the resulting costs of operating their businesses. This will obviously result in subdued growth and will undoubtedly put a large dent in the GDP figure. Therefore, until there is a resolution, I see more equity and commodity market sell-offs in the coming weeks driven mostly by fear of the unknown. However, I do not anticipate that the US will enter another recession. In fact I still see the US leading the global recovery albeit at a subdued rate. Regardless, boom or bust, it's all good for the USD relative to the other major currencies.
As I mentioned yesterday, I am looking to sell all E/U rallies from here forward until such time that I see a promising future; not only for Europe, but for the global markets as a whole. In fact I am also short the JPY, AUD, GBP and CAD... basically I am long the USD across the board. In my opinion, this is a winning strategy and I shall stick with it until it is no more.
Be well, trade safe and don't accept any wooden nickles.
Pete Jackson's Order Board:
EUR/USD: Bids 1.2700/10, sell stops below and through 1.2680, ahead of bids 1.2650/60 (daily cloud base 1.2653) and tech support at 100 day MA of 1.2647, ahead of more bids 1.2600/10 (1.2605- 50% of 24/7-17/9 rally). Offers 1.2775/85 buy stops above through 1.2785
Today's Euro FX Option Expiries @ 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2715, 1.2750, 1.2775, 1.2800, 1.2820, 1.2825
USDX Daily:
E/U Weekly:
The market focus right now is threefold. Primarily we have the ongoing issues on Greece's debt sustainability. Additionally we have the situations in Spain, Italy and now France. Finally we have the tensions over the US fiscal cliff and what it means to market participants and the US economy in general.
Greece is in a pickle. Of that there is absolutely no doubt. The issue at hand is the release of the next €31.5 billion aid tranche which is being held back while the IMF and the EU (two members of the Troika) bicker over what is considered sustainable for Greece's piling debt burden. Of course no matter what they do or decide, my strong view is that Greece's debt is not and will never be sustainable without a major haircut or debt forgiveness. However, the Troika are not in a position to admit that, so for now they will just argue over whether the target should be 120% debt to GDP ratio by 2020 or 125% debt to GDP ratio by 2022... and while they argue such nonsense, they both realize that a 160% to 190% debt to GDP ration is the best they will see without having to take a loss on what has already been disbursed. It's a bit of a hot potato situation because they cannot take any losses until after the German general elections next year because if they do, then Angela Merkel will surely lose. When someone owes the bank €100,000 and they cannot pay, it is their problem. When someone owes the bank €150 Billion and they cannot pay, it is the bank's problem. Greece knows this and they will play their cards accordingly. In the meantime, the markets will tread cautiously because a Greek default or exit from the Eurozone will cost many hundreds of billions if not more than a trillion Euros when you add up all the cascading consequences. On top of that, a Greek Exit or default will be very contagious.
Spain is next... Make no mistake about that. Their banks are in a right mess and as long as the Eurozone cartel in Brussels keep dragging their feet on these issues, the situation will keep worsening. Once Spain is forced into applying for ESM/OMT aid, they will surely be heading down the same path as Greece where the people will reject the required austerity measures, corruption will take over, the debt will just grow larger and what's left of the economy will get flushed down the toilet. Should that happen, Italy and France will not be very far behind. Let's hope for the best on this one.
The US Fiscal Cliff is bad for global growth no matter how you slice it. No matter what the President, the Senate and the House decide and agree to, fiscal adjustments have to be implemented and that is never good for growth. If the US is not growing, then neither is the rest of the world. In the meantime, there is much fear by investors that their 2013 taxes on capital gains will rise, so the obvious play is to cash in their profits before the end of 2012. Furthermore, small business in the US (the driving force behind the great economic engine) are reluctant to expand or hire new staff out of uncertainty over their tax burdens and the resulting costs of operating their businesses. This will obviously result in subdued growth and will undoubtedly put a large dent in the GDP figure. Therefore, until there is a resolution, I see more equity and commodity market sell-offs in the coming weeks driven mostly by fear of the unknown. However, I do not anticipate that the US will enter another recession. In fact I still see the US leading the global recovery albeit at a subdued rate. Regardless, boom or bust, it's all good for the USD relative to the other major currencies.
As I mentioned yesterday, I am looking to sell all E/U rallies from here forward until such time that I see a promising future; not only for Europe, but for the global markets as a whole. In fact I am also short the JPY, AUD, GBP and CAD... basically I am long the USD across the board. In my opinion, this is a winning strategy and I shall stick with it until it is no more.
Be well, trade safe and don't accept any wooden nickles.
Pete Jackson's Order Board:
EUR/USD: Bids 1.2700/10, sell stops below and through 1.2680, ahead of bids 1.2650/60 (daily cloud base 1.2653) and tech support at 100 day MA of 1.2647, ahead of more bids 1.2600/10 (1.2605- 50% of 24/7-17/9 rally). Offers 1.2775/85 buy stops above through 1.2785
Today's Euro FX Option Expiries @ 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2715, 1.2750, 1.2775, 1.2800, 1.2820, 1.2825
USDX Daily:
E/U Weekly:
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #60,748
- Nov 15, 2012 12:17am Nov 15, 2012 12:17am
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2012 | 3,285 Posts
Good morning fellow traders. It's a beautiful day here, so I'm not going to sit at this computer for too long as I plan on getting out and enjoying the sunshine and fresh air. However, before I get going, I thought I would post an update on where we stand on this stubborn yet shaky pair.
The market focus right now is threefold. Primarily we have the ongoing issues on Greece's debt sustainability. Additionally we have the situations in Spain, Italy and now France. Finally we have the tensions over the US fiscal cliff and what it means to...
Good morning PT!
Excellent morning update my friend!
As you know I've only been following this thread for maybe 6 months or so but looking back you have been pretty spot on with just about everything from the EUR moving down to USD/JPY moving up as well as USD/CAD. I still need to get use to the fact that things don't always happen "here and now" in regards to the markets so timing is everything.
But from a fundamental stand point your analysis is rock solid in my opinion. By the way, I'm sure you noticed U/J the past 2 days. Set new 6 month high!
Your view makes complete sense in regards to being USD bullish for the next few months (i assume few months at least) so I will also be looking to short most of the majors as well. Now it all boils down to our trading preference and how we use the technicals to find our entry/exit points but the overall trend, like you said, will be USD bullish.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and knowledge with all of us on a daily basis. Enjoy your day!
- #60,749
- Nov 15, 2012 12:32am Nov 15, 2012 12:32am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning PT!
Excellent morning update my friend!
As you know I've only been following this thread for maybe 6 months or so but looking back you have been pretty spot on with just about everything from the EUR moving down to USD/JPY moving up as well as USD/CAD. I still need to get use to the fact that things don't always happen "here and now" in regards to the markets so timing is everything.
But from a fundamental stand point your analysis is rock solid in my opinion. By the way, I'm sure you noticed U/J the past 2 days. Set new 6 month high!
Your view makes complete sense in regards to being USD bullish for the next few months (i assume few months at least) so I will also be looking to short most of the majors as well. Now it all boils down to our trading preference and how we use the technicals to find our entry/exit points but the overall trend, like you said, will be USD bullish.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and knowledge with all of us on a daily basis. Enjoy your day!
Here's a clue as to where to enter shorts on the majors. Start from the monthly chart and work your way down. Whilst looking at each time frame, visually identify the stage of the cycle (swing high / swing low). The key is to go short at the top of the swing. A more conservative approach is to identify the top on a higher time frame and then enter after a confirmed lower high on the lower time frame and execute a short against resistance on the next swing high. It may yet go higher and that is why you should only execute part of your entry. If it goes against you, you can add more at a better price and if it goes in your favor, you can scale in with more on the next swing high. Of course the opposite holds true if you are looking to go long.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #60,750
- Nov 15, 2012 12:47am Nov 15, 2012 12:47am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning PT!
Excellent morning update my friend!
As you know I've only been following this thread for maybe 6 months or so but looking back you have been pretty spot on with just about everything from the EUR moving down to USD/JPY moving up as well as USD/CAD. I still need to get use to the fact that things don't always happen "here and now" in regards to the markets so timing is everything.
But from a fundamental stand point your analysis is rock solid in my opinion. By the way, I'm sure you noticed U/J the past 2 days. Set new 6 month high!
Your view makes complete sense in regards to being USD bullish for the next few months (i assume few months at least) so I will also be looking to short most of the majors as well. Now it all boils down to our trading preference and how we use the technicals to find our entry/exit points but the overall trend, like you said, will be USD bullish.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and knowledge with all of us on a daily basis. Enjoy your day!
USD/JPY Daily:
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #60,751
- Nov 15, 2012 12:58am Nov 15, 2012 12:58am
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2012 | 3,285 Posts
Thanks for your comments HP... Much appreciated.
Here's a clue as to where to enter shorts on the majors. Start from the monthly chart and work your way down. Whilst looking at each time frame, visually identify the stage of the cycle (swing high / swing low). The key is to go short at the top of the swing. A more conservative approach is to identify the top on a higher time frame and then enter after a confirmed lower high on the lower time frame and execute a short against resistance on the next swing high. It may yet go higher and that is...
Thanks for the words of wisdom PT!
Congratulations on your U/J trades!
- #60,753
- Nov 15, 2012 1:33am Nov 15, 2012 1:33am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #60,754
- Nov 15, 2012 1:40am Nov 15, 2012 1:40am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Yesterday's inverted H/S formation on E/U H1 is still in play. Target is 1.27877
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #60,756
- Nov 15, 2012 1:48am Nov 15, 2012 1:48am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Why is the E/U pair rallying on dismal data and sociopolitical disarray?
Answer is simple...
1. Supply is at 1.2780 and higher so until the current weaker shorts cover their positions, there are no fresh sellers willing to jump in.
2. The AUD and JPY are melting down. Obviously all that cash has to go back to where it came from and I highly doubt it all came from USD. Remember that last year there was loads of capital flight from Europe. During uncertain times, that capital is brought back home.
Will it last? Not at all. This is just intraweek noise. Furthermore, when European wealth funds decide it's time to get their capital out of Europe again, it's all heading West... not East
Answer is simple...
1. Supply is at 1.2780 and higher so until the current weaker shorts cover their positions, there are no fresh sellers willing to jump in.
2. The AUD and JPY are melting down. Obviously all that cash has to go back to where it came from and I highly doubt it all came from USD. Remember that last year there was loads of capital flight from Europe. During uncertain times, that capital is brought back home.
Will it last? Not at all. This is just intraweek noise. Furthermore, when European wealth funds decide it's time to get their capital out of Europe again, it's all heading West... not East
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #60,757
- Nov 15, 2012 1:50am Nov 15, 2012 1:50am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Oh wow!
I'll be looking for a new entry point now that it is clear USD/CAD is moving up. Thanks again for your input.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #60,759
- Nov 15, 2012 2:04am Nov 15, 2012 2:04am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Makes sense, I noticed AUD is falling faster than EUR now... Had to close out my E/A and G/A shorts yesterday, at least I was in profit, but my 1.17 target for E/A looks like it will be out of the picture for the time being... LOL
Due to the current Risk Off sentiment do you project EUR or AUD to fall harder and faster?
Hint 1: Compare monthly AUD/USD to monthly EUR/USD
Hint 2: Last week I called for a mid term outlook on EUR/AUD of 1.39/1.40
Hint 3:
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #60,760
- Nov 15, 2012 2:11am Nov 15, 2012 2:11am
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2012 | 3,285 Posts
If you follow my previous advice about multiple time frame analysis, I think you'll find the answer to that question quite apparent.
Hint 1: Compare monthly AUD/USD to monthly EUR/USD
Hint 2: Last week I called for a mid term outlook on EUR/AUD of 1.39/1.40
Hint 3:
Attachment
AUD...
