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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #11,341
  • Nov 13, 2012 6:59am Nov 13, 2012 6:59am
Quoting Saxon
ST friction areas for UCHF. To the south
nice to see saxon participating on the thread more...please, keep them coming.

Quoting shahab8b
EU: long setup, wait for the PA confirmation though
i am not comfortable with a long EU at this moment...my reasons are chiefly fundamental: i dont think that the fundamental equation favour anything bullish EUR. I mean, for the last couple of weeks, USD has been delivering relentlessly bullish econ data, week after week....while the EUR has deteriorated slowly and steadily...even the german powerhouse is feeling the effect...not just germany, other peripheral nations(czech, poland, norway, sweden) etc are taking a hit because of the slowing eur situation...the CHF numbers are depressing with increase risk of deflation....and their PMI is not looking good...spain rajoy is a stubborn lad refusing to activate the OMT help from draghi despite the german bundestag giving the green light months ago...spain youth unemployment has climbed from 24% to now 50%....you are reading that correctly, 1/2 of employable young people are not employed.....and of course, the greece situation....

i dont know...it could bounce...but i dont know. i am bearish on the EUR and bullish on USD and AUD. unless some exogenous shock came in and turn the tables. this is what i wrote on the deadly thread.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,342
  • Nov 13, 2012 7:31am Nov 13, 2012 7:31am
Quoting Forexgogo
Got in EU long.
Out -20. Will try again later -- maybe @ 1.26.
  • #11,343
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:26am Nov 13, 2012 8:26am
Quoting Skynet
USD has been delivering relentlessly bullish econ data, week after week....while the EUR has deteriorated slowly and steadily.... i am bearish on the EUR and bullish on USD
I think this is a valid analysis, but personally I don't take fundies into my trade as much as I used to. The reason is simply I don't know what exactly the cause and effect are -- sometimes the same kind of news results in totally opposite PA (USD and JPY in particular).

So, I just focus on charts and try not to analyze news and its effects (although I do check news hours to expect PA to move either direction).

Just my two cents....
  • #11,344
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:35am Nov 13, 2012 8:35am
Quoting Forexgogo
I think this is a valid analysis, but personally I don't take fundies into my trade as much as I used to. The reason is simply I don't know what exactly the cause and effect are -- sometimes the same kind of news results in totally opposite PA (USD and JPY in particular).

So, I just focus on charts and try not to analyze news and its effects (although I do check news hours to expect PA to move either direction).

Just my two cents....

fundamental analysis vs technical analysis. my position:

scenario # A.
if strong fundie aligns with techie = take trade without the usual technical TP. Let it run as far as possible.

SCENARIO # B.
if strong fundie DOES NOT ALIGN with techie = dont take trade

SCENARIO # C
if fundie is giving weak signals or conflicting signals...and does not align with techie...take trade in technical direction but be very aggressive with trade management and use strongly defined TP based on technicals.

***it makes no sense to take weak technical signals...hence, in all those three scenarios, the techie is expected to be strong.***

Is there a case where technical analysis can possibly go successfully against strong fundamentals? yes. especially, if sentiment analysis backs up technical analysis against fundie. Cases like this is when pure, hardcore technical analyst will jump up and point and say "see! see! technicals is all you need! technical analysis goes against fundamentals and it works!"...the same way that when fundie destroys beautiful technical setups and you see hard core fundie jumps up and say "see! see!, technical analysis is bogus!"

i dont belong in any camps. i simply like high probability setups...ergo, i combine fundamentals with technicals with sentiment analysis. it works for me.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,345
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:42am Nov 13, 2012 8:42am
Have to run, but here is what I'm looking at (UCAD)
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  • #11,346
  • Nov 13, 2012 9:15am Nov 13, 2012 9:15am
Expecting to make it up for the EU loss.... afraid a bounce from 1.000 (edit: good to know shahab8b is on the same boat!)
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  • #11,347
  • Nov 13, 2012 10:12am Nov 13, 2012 10:12am
Quoting Forexgogo
Out -20. Will try again later -- maybe @ 1.26.
One of those trades; you didn't set SL at the right level. But at least it's good to know you are applying proper risk management.
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  • #11,348
  • Nov 13, 2012 11:37am Nov 13, 2012 11:37am
Quoting Skynet

i am not comfortable with a long EU at this moment...my reasons are chiefly fundamental: i dont think that the fundamental equation favour anything bullish EUR. I mean, for the last couple of weeks, USD has been delivering relentlessly bullish econ data, week after week....while the EUR has deteriorated slowly and steadily...even the german powerhouse is feeling the effect...not just germany, other peripheral nations(czech, poland, norway, sweden) etc are...
You're right; I'm bearish on EU too. This is just a technically-oriented intraday counter trend trade!
  • #11,349
  • Nov 13, 2012 4:08pm Nov 13, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting shahab8b
One of those trades; you didn't set SL at the right level. But at least it's good to know you are applying proper risk management.
It's my habit to set a SL 50pips whenever I take a position -- it's a sort of emergency SL in case an accident happens (ie internet connection).
I usually tighten SL after the first 1h bar closes. BTW I don't take any trade if I need more than 50pips for a SL -- that's why I rarely trade daily and weekly
  • #11,350
  • Nov 13, 2012 4:12pm Nov 13, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Expecting to make it up for the EU loss.... afraid a bounce from 1.000 (edit: good to know shahab8b is on the same boat!)
Now SL=BE it's getting there only 5 pips away....
  • #11,351
  • Nov 13, 2012 4:14pm Nov 13, 2012 4:14pm
Hoping for a break of this TL
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  • #11,352
  • Nov 13, 2012 4:49pm Nov 13, 2012 4:49pm
I added 2 polls to the top of this page. Hope you don't mind. They are simply out of curiosity. You listen to the news and you are constantly bombarded with conflicting Euro opinions. The best are the flip-floppers who change their mind after every news release (WS Journal). So I was curious what you think. Also, I have been meeting with a lot of banks in the last few weeks and as many of you are well aware, banks are making (have been for a while) a major shift to "Quant" trading. So I posted a poll on what you think trading is. Again, if you guys don't like the clutter, I'll take them down. I'll take them down in a week or so anyway. Interested to see what you say.
  • #11,353
  • Nov 13, 2012 5:27pm Nov 13, 2012 5:27pm
Watching this carefully
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,354
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:02pm Nov 13, 2012 8:02pm
Hi Boys & Girls! I hope life is treating everyone here fairly.
A/U Weekly
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #11,355
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:30pm Nov 13, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Hi Boys & Girls! I hope life is treating everyone here fairly.
A/U Weekly
Good call. Just to top it up, price is wedging towards 78.2% Fib level which sits nicely with the trendline.

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Know Your Trading Edge and Trade It
  • #11,356
  • Nov 13, 2012 11:29pm Nov 13, 2012 11:29pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Hi Boys & Girls! I hope life is treating everyone here fairly.
A/U Weekly
Hey Bro!!
  • #11,357
  • Nov 13, 2012 11:32pm Nov 13, 2012 11:32pm
Also relative to positions and risk, I like to leg into a trade, build a position so I can tolerate a larger initial stop. Just another tool if you're not already doing it.
  • #11,358
  • Nov 14, 2012 2:10am Nov 14, 2012 2:10am
long CAD/SGD.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1352880441
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,359
  • Nov 14, 2012 2:16am Nov 14, 2012 2:16am
I am watching Eur/Jpy right now. Looking for bounce and short soon...
  • #11,360
  • Nov 14, 2012 2:39am Nov 14, 2012 2:39am
Quoting Skynet
long CAD/SGD.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1352880441
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1352880516
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
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