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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #2,541
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:25pm Nov 9, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting RandomOne
...... Thus to some extent strong news can invalidate otherwise good setups.
Absolutely it can

d
  • #2,542
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:30pm Nov 9, 2012 7:30pm
Quoting wmd
When she moves following your map you can commit your hard earned with confidence.
If she's not travelling your suggested path then sit aside.
Raise your game by eliminating the bad ones.
If you take a hit, make it a small one.
If you strike the sweet spot, aim to hit the ball out the park.
  • #2,543
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:41am Nov 10, 2012 5:41am
Quoting Skynet
strong in the pips, you will soon be. trust in wmd, you should.

may the pips be with you.

skynet
I can never hear Yoda without thinking of Reverse Polish notation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_Polish_notation)

To take the analogy further, I presume indicators are the Dark Side
  • #2,544
  • Nov 10, 2012 9:19am Nov 10, 2012 9:19am
Quoting wmd
Price has a rhythm, so map it in advance. Download any screen capture tool and draw on the chart. You will be surprised by what you already know. Then when she moves following your map you can commit your hard earned with confidence. If she's not travelling your suggested path then sit aside. You are under no obligation to pull the trigger. Raise your game by eliminating the bad ones. If you take a hit, make it a small one. If you strike the sweet spot, aim to hit the ball out the park.

This was my week.
Reminds me of a flying saying : "Take off is always optional, but landing is mandatory".

Here is my usdcad trade which was good for 80 pips based on the untested resistance level from mid-October - thanks for the idea again.

Notice that your entry was at a higher price and you kept open while I was concerned about the previous resistance around 0.9970 and so was happy to take my profit there.

Lost 40 on eurjpy because it did not turn in the area I hoped. However, if I had the confidence to go for my subsequent level of ~100.5 I would be 50 pips up now. I was also interested in gbpusd short at 1.6004 but was not around to take the first bounce which would have given 30 pips. The subsequent fake-out put me off, but if I had persisted I could have got two more bounces for 30 pips each and a final movement of 100 pips and counting.

Encouraging for my first week analysing live prices rather than historic data. As someone noted, it is a different games when there is a blank area on the right of the screen. I would also observe that trading is not like most jobs where you can get paid while working your way up as you learn. Here you need a certain degree of skill just to avoid losing money and so long as you have the leverage and funds I see few reasons why you cannot quickly raise your income once you have sufficient proficiency.

Quoting wmd
On Thusday evening trade note subs were alerted to the potential for a significant short trade in AudUsd.

Here are some of notes exchanged with members of my trading group and the corresponding trade.

Focus on the process.

First, establish a historical precendent. Second, map the move. Third, execute with extreme prejudice.
Good call. Looking at charts would it have been correct to trade the untested resistance at ~1.0375 for a long, or in line with your earlier observation, are such structures best left to the 1H and longer time frames?
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  • #2,545
  • Nov 10, 2012 9:52am Nov 10, 2012 9:52am
Quoting dazzdude
Yes, there is some truth in that. A good example is the effect it had on my commodities trading. I paid for futures training (in class room) with Futures Trading Legend Larry Williams in the mid 2000's when he came to Australia. I also bought his courses, books, newsletters, etc. I spent a lot of time, and a lot of effort trying to learn how trade futures using his methodology. He has very solid methodology for understanding when a market is "[u]set up for a...
Oxford and Cambridge, who have some experience in this area, have long favoured the small group tutorial as one of the best ways to teach. However, it is an expensive system so is not widely used in other UK Universities. I note that with multi-media opportunities there is some question of whether it would now be more cost-effective to use the best lecturers in the world to make interactive courses involving online questions and answer sessions. In a way this is what forums can facilitate.

Personally I think the most important ingredient is someone who knows what they are talking about with sufficient depth that they can answer all the obvious questions and highlight the important principles. I have had too many teachers and lecturers who were doing little more than reciting coursework without understanding it themselves. In general it is also helpful if you are in the right frame of mind to learn, by which I mean you are interested in the subject and have done sufficient prior research that the concepts being discussed are not entirely new. This allows you to ask the relevant questions. Finally repetition is the only real way to make the information second nature – that is the way that the brain works as there is not enough room to store everything so it is setup to remember what you do most often.
  • #2,546
  • Nov 10, 2012 7:25pm Nov 10, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting RandomOne
Oxford and Cambridge, who have some experience in this area, have long favoured the small group tutorial as one of the best ways to teach....

Personally I think the most important ingredient is someone who knows what they are talking about with sufficient depth that they can answer all the obvious questions and highlight the important principles....
Very insightful. Brilliant summary.

The other thing is pointing out what to stop doing. One of the last pieces of guidance went something like this. ''I have been looking at your trades, and you are doing OK, but your problem is that you are <blah.....>.'' The point being, each individual is different so it is not always possible to address such things in a large group.

d
  • #2,547
  • Edited 10:19pm Nov 11, 2012 9:12pm | Edited 10:19pm
Quoting wmd
Here is the analysis which was issued to our members on Monday 5th November:

http://player.vimeo.com/video/52836460

i look forward to this every week.

just so you know.


Quoting wmd
Price has a rhythm, so map it in advance.......
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1352497215
This was my week.

mr. dazzdude, i missed this trade: my confluence spot wasnt triggered. missed it by 8pips. i have also show how the 15-5 entry method could have been used had the entry spot reached. the sl would have been -16 pips, TP = daily close of 1.00179. that would have been r/r 1:7 roughly. Unfortunately, it missed my entry by mere 8pips.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,548
  • Nov 12, 2012 3:50am Nov 12, 2012 3:50am
Quoting Skynet
mr. dazzdude, i missed this trade: my confluence spot wasnt triggered. missed it by 8pips. i have also show how the 15-5 entry method could have been used had the entry spot reached. the sl would have been -16 pips, TP = daily close of 1.00179. that would have been r/r 1:7 roughly. Unfortunately, it missed my entry by mere 8pips.
8 pips.. bummer. This is my take.

See pic 4 in series.

Notice the similarity to this?
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  • #2,549
  • Nov 12, 2012 6:17am Nov 12, 2012 6:17am
Quoting dazzdude
8 pips.. bummer. This is my take.

See pic 4 in series.

Notice the similarity to this?

nice...nice...nice...nice.

i see it. #4. you dont even need to go to m30 or m5 to see the hook...the hook is there on h4. it never closed the upshoot.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,550
  • Nov 12, 2012 10:47am Nov 12, 2012 10:47am
Example on larger time frame. Potential setup.

d
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  • #2,551
  • Nov 12, 2012 11:15am Nov 12, 2012 11:15am
Quoting dazzdude
Example on larger time frame. Potential setup.

d

i see what you are saying, dazzdude, but you also know that i am a fundamental lad too...and the fundamental equation does not favour anything bullish EUR. I mean, for the last couple of weeks, USD has been delivering relentlessly bullish econ data, week after week....while the EUR has deteriorated slowly and steadily...even the german powerhouse is feeling the effect...not just germany, other peripheral nations(czech, poland, norway, sweden) etc are taking a hit because of the slowing eur situation...the CHF numbers are depressing with increase risk of deflation....and their PMI is not looking good...spain rajoy is a stubborn lad refusing to activate the OMT help from draghi despite the german bundestag giving the green light months ago...spain youth unemployment has climbed from 24% to now 50%....you are reading that correctly, 1/2 of employable young people are not employed.....and of course, the greece situation....

i dont know...it could bounce...but i dont know. i am bearish on the EUR and bullish on USD and AUD.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,552
  • Edited 3:16am Nov 13, 2012 1:17am | Edited 3:16am
I do not disagree. I was showing an example of the same technical pattern I had pointed out on CAD. Its always easy to point out entries in hindsight. Most monkeys can do that (Edit: referring to myself - the CAD entry I showed was in hindsight), even this monkey.
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  • #2,553
  • Nov 13, 2012 7:12am Nov 13, 2012 7:12am
hehhee. i am just reading your thread from the beginning....looking at how you view and process price action....the charts in this post of yours was interesting...seeing the way your brain works.

my respect, sir.

--skynet.


Quoting wmd
Just like footballers and boxers have rituals they perform before stepping out on to the pitch or in to the ring; buyers and sellers have rituals which they perform before stepping in to the pits.

Like the dramatics before a wrestling match, chests are raised, cheap shots are taken, and sometimes ears are bitten before the actual bout begins. Sometimes it ko from the word go, other times its trench warfare.

Price action is a construct of buyer and seller behaviour. So when we're watching the charts we're looking for those rituals. Some times...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,554
  • Nov 13, 2012 4:02pm Nov 13, 2012 4:02pm
"It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all".... Great video....
  • #2,555
  • Edited 3:51pm Nov 14, 2012 3:39pm | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting Skynet
....
i dont know...it could bounce...but i dont know. i am bearish on the EUR and bullish on USD and AUD.
I work from the idea that most decent technical levels provide a 'reaction' and it's at that place I can define risk and hopefully I can make some pips of the back of that. Where the fundamentals have my back, it means I am more inclined to hold or look for a reversal. Where the fundamentals are against me, I am looking for bounce only. The level provided a bounce of about 120 pips. 4hr chart below shows that bounce.

Edit: Example here. I was only looking for the reaction off a technical level. The challenge I have is that I really am quite clueless about the fundamentals, so I my antidote relies an being able to spot a place where some kind of reaction is likely, and then hope for the best.
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  • #2,556
  • Nov 14, 2012 4:00pm Nov 14, 2012 4:00pm
As an example, here is a place where there should be reaction. If the market is kind, it will allow a risk defined entry of the level. From there I am at the mercy of the market. She may be kind, she may not. Even at a technical level, I still need an entry technique though to get in.
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  • #2,557
  • Nov 14, 2012 4:01pm Nov 14, 2012 4:01pm
Quoting dazzdude
I work from the idea that most decent technical levels provide a 'reaction' and it's at that place I can define risk and hopefully I can make some pips of the back of that. Where the fundamentals have my back, it means I am more inclined to hold or look for a reversal. Where the fundamentals are against me, I am looking for bounce only. The level provided a bounce of about 120 pips. 4hr chart below shows that bounce.

Edit: Example here. I was only looking for the reaction...
Nice trade Darren,
How did you catch it on bottom?There was spike close to this level I had pending order which price missed about 8 pips.I guess you enter with limit order?(Only curious)
Definitely great call and nice confluence there.
  • #2,558
  • Nov 14, 2012 4:26pm Nov 14, 2012 4:26pm
Some nice set ups today.
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  • #2,559
  • Nov 14, 2012 4:41pm Nov 14, 2012 4:41pm
excellent. and good trade.

on the issue of fundie vs techie. my position is here.

Quoting dazzdude
I work from the idea that most decent technical levels provide a 'reaction' and it's at that place I can define risk and hopefully I can make some pips of the back of that. Where the fundamentals have my back, it means I am more inclined to hold or look for a reversal. Where the fundamentals are against me, I am looking for bounce only. The level provided a bounce of about 120 pips. 4hr chart below shows that bounce.

Edit: Example here. I was only looking for the reaction...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,560
  • Nov 14, 2012 11:40pm Nov 14, 2012 11:40pm
I will try to posts some charts with map in advance as Darren did and I will see how is all goes.Hope I don't to post too much BS.I would like to learn here so any comments are very welcome.
P.s.Apologize for my English in advance is not my mother language
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