historical data accuracy puzzlement.

I have been doing bucket loads of excel analysis on hourly MT4 data running back to 1999 on the Eur/Usd, Usd/jpy and Eur/jpy.

I have used data from Alpari, Interbank and SBFX (on different sheets).

Apart from the inevitable holes that appear from time to time, my problem is the accuracy of data from the last three months.

I would assume that the data is accurate, however, I one of the things I've been testing is the average hourly volatitlity of the markets of over set periods of time.

It seems that there has never been as stable a time in the market as there is now.

This holds true for the last three months in all the markets I have covered.

if we take the Eur/Jpy as an example, since 2001, the average hourly movement is just under 30 pips

the breakdown for 3 month periods is as follows

2001
01 Jan - 01 April = 38 pips
01 April - 01 july = 33 pips
01 July - 01 oct = 32 pips
01 Oct - 01 Jan =27 pips

2002
01 Jan - 01 April = 29.5 pips
01 April - 01 july = 25.7 pips
01 July - 01 oct = 27 pips
01 Oct - 01 Jan = 26 pips

2003
01 Jan - 01 April = 28 pips
01 April - 01 july = 31 pips
01 July - 01 oct = 34 pips
01 Oct - 01 Jan = 33 pips

2004
01 Jan - 01 April = 41 pips
01 April - 01 july = 40 pips
01 July - 01 oct = 31 pips
01 Oct - 01 Jan = 28 pips

2005
01 Jan - 01 April = 26 pips
01 April - 01 july = 24 pips
01 July - 01 oct = 25 pips
01 Oct - 01 Jan = 25 pips

2006
01 Jan - 01 April = 26 pips
01 April - 01 july = 27 pips
01 July - 01 oct = 24 pips

however, the average hourly volatility for the period

01 Oct (06)- 01 Jan (07)

is just 15 pips!

how can this be?

Is this an actual event, or are the 3 months prior to real time fudged figures?

it is a full 9 pips below the previous lowest.

what's going on. Apart from nothing, apparently.

That is extremely interesting becuase it explains why some scalping systems i test work fantastic for years then suddenly stop working the last few months. I also noticed daily ATR was an all time low.

What we dont know is the reason for this fundy or otherwise and how long the condition will last.