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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #2,521
  • Oct 28, 2012 4:57pm Oct 28, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting findcount
Dazzdude, you mind letting me know where to get those US Dollar Index charts ?

i can't find any that's as nice looking as yours.
Hi findcount,

I trade US futures using optionsxpress. It's there java web charts. As far as web charts go, they are good. I have seen some people in FF showing dollar index on MetaTrader. I am not sure what MT br0k3r platforms have dollar index but if you look around you should find one.

Cheers,
d
  • #2,522
  • Oct 28, 2012 6:40pm Oct 28, 2012 6:40pm
Quoting dazzdude
Hi findcount,

I trade US futures using optionsxpress. It's there java web charts. As far as web charts go, they are good. I have seen some people in FF showing dollar index on MetaTrader. I am not sure what MT br0k3r platforms have dollar index but if you look around you should find one.

Cheers,
d
forexltd.com.uk... also has euro index... click on market symbols..rit click show all..also trading point .com
  • #2,523
  • Oct 29, 2012 4:07am Oct 29, 2012 4:07am
Quoting findcount
Dazzdude, you mind letting me know where to get those US Dollar Index charts ?

i can't find any that's as nice looking as yours.
Go to www.forexpros.com

Register for free.

click on "charts" on the horizontal menu bar.

Click on "real time futures charts"

The default chart that will open is the "US30" Dow Jones chart. (Take a while to load)

Click on "Majors" on the menu bar of the chart and scroll down till you get the "US Dollar Index " and click on that.

You can set the time from 1 minute to daily and you can add technical indicators as you like and save your settings as a system for future use.

Play around and have fun

Regards

Banco
  • #2,524
  • Oct 31, 2012 1:46pm Oct 31, 2012 1:46pm
finally, i have a private detective..he found WMD bank statement.
http://thebillfold.com/wp-content/up...t-640x1189.jpg
Oh sorry, that one belongs to dazzdude,

this is the one that belongs to WMD.....
http://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2...t2-540x524.jpg
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,525
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:46am Nov 1, 2012 6:46am
Quoting Skynet
finally, i have a private detective...
LOL, it's a lovely thought.
  • #2,526
  • Nov 2, 2012 3:15am Nov 2, 2012 3:15am
Those were supposed to be confidential!
  • #2,527
  • Nov 2, 2012 4:35pm Nov 2, 2012 4:35pm
Traders!!

Here is the analysis issued to our members on Monday 29th October:

http://player.vimeo.com/video/52374397


Its free to join: www.tradingwithdeadlyaccuracy.com


  • #2,528
  • Nov 6, 2012 9:04am Nov 6, 2012 9:04am
Looking at current GBPUSD situation I wonder whether there is a "M" price formation as per attached current chart. If so, I also presume that it would be worth looking for short at 1.6000 level if price returns to this level.
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  • #2,529
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:52am Nov 7, 2012 7:52am
Gave ~30 pips before reversal. I did not trade as just looking at the moment and would need to stay awake overnight to catch low before reversal. Even though had a response at this level this probably would have been loss for me if I had placed overnight with fixed take-profit (TP) as I guessed price would fall to 1.5983 level.
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  • #2,530
  • Nov 8, 2012 3:26am Nov 8, 2012 3:26am
Hi RandomOne,

You are on the right track. Let's look at the M formation on Cable. Chart 1.

Next, lets look at some M formations on Euro. Chart 2.

On chart 2, I have marked off three M formations.

- M1 Did not work so well.
- M2 Worked well.
- M3 Worked well.

There are some differences between the ones that work well, the ones that work so so, and the ones that fail.

I have thrown in some examples.

d
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  • #2,531
  • Nov 8, 2012 2:06pm Nov 8, 2012 2:06pm
Thanks dazzdude, that explains it more fully and was similar to what I was trying to explain in my notes posted earlier that in a way you could consider the second leg of the “M” or “W” as a failed retest which also forms the last part of a double top or bottom respectively. This coincidence would provide extra momentum to the second leg price movement thereby giving the kind of price structure reported as more likely to produce a price reversal at retest.

If this interpretation has any merit I would expect that those formations that appear at the top or bottom of recent price advances / declines such as your examples in charts 2, 4 and 5 would be more likely to succeed compared to my example which you show in chart 1 and formed a “M” after earlier price falls. However, as you point out this is also not a good candidate because the price did not accelerate away from the mid point (or “nose” as WMD labels it) on the second leg before retesting.

Perhaps it would be wise to limit the initial expectations at least to no further than the extreme price in the second leg up until the point of retest. On this topic I wonder whether it is also worth considering making the trade a so-called free-trade at some point by closing part of the trade as soon as it is in profit enough so that even if the stop-loss was subsequently hit there would be no loss. Might not be the optimal solution, but it does remove the risk at the earliest opportunity.
  • #2,532
  • Nov 8, 2012 3:30pm Nov 8, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting RandomOne
[size=3][font=Calibri]Thanks dazzdude...
Hi RandomOne,

It is always a good idea to remove risk. Trading is about risk management. Wmd often closes out part of a trade when sufficiently in profit such that if his stop is hit, the trade still comes out a winner as you have suggested. This is typically his approach and it works for him. I like to do the same. When and how he chooses to do this will not be a 'static' decision. It will depend on how price reacts to the structure. The more favourable the reaction, the longer he will let price travel before scaling out.

Will (wmd) has a whole strategy about how to trade a W and M structure. Most people can recognise a good W or M on screen after some guidance. However, Will understands where price will react to within a W and M structure. There are specific places within the structure it will occur. By knowing this, even if the first level (the nose) fails, you can get the bounce from the next level down to cover the initial entry as the next level will almost always (nothing is 100%) hold.

In addition, and this is probably more important, depending on how price reacts to which level will indicate with a high degree or certainty if the reaction is going to produce 'a bounce' off the structure or will create a complete 'wave reversal'. Knowing it will be a wave reversal not only means you can hold the trade for a larger target, it also means that when price starts move away, you can look to add (if this is what you want to do) in the next wave.

I will not go over this. This is why he does paid training/mentoring. These are his personal observations from studying price structure in depth (on screen, not from books). This is his thunder, so I leave it with him. I only know about this, and many other things as have done this training myself.

d
  • #2,533
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:23am Nov 9, 2012 7:23am
Here is the analysis which was issued to our members on Monday 5th November:

http://player.vimeo.com/video/52836460
  • #2,534
  • Nov 9, 2012 2:35pm Nov 9, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting dazzdude
Hi RandomOne,

It is always a good idea to remove risk....
d
When you are good enough to read the movements I can see that the optimal solution is to react to the markets. However, for the moment the best I can do is look at the likely points of resistance / support on the way to profit and determine whether reaching there would allow me to make the trade a free one at that price. The even simpler method of selling a fixed percentage as soon as the price is sufficient reduces risk at the earliest opportunity but may mean that you partly exit just when the potential return is highest.

I have watched the “Trading the Nose” video on the WMD4X website and it does seem to outline some of the further points that you mentioned. Suspect that the personal training may give even more insights as it is often hard to put everything down.
  • #2,535
  • Edited 4:29pm Nov 9, 2012 2:48pm | Edited 4:29pm
Quoting dazzdude
Hi findcount,

I trade US futures using optionsxpress. .........Cheers,
d
nice. i didnt even know this.

you trade the ES, NQ, YM....do you trade commodities too?



Quoting RandomOne
When you are good enough to read the movements I can see that the optimal solution is to react to the markets. However, for the moment the best I can do is look at the likely points of resistance / support on the way to profit and determine whether reaching there would allow me to make the trade a free one at that price. The even simpler method of selling a fixed percentage as soon as the price is sufficient reduces risk at the earliest opportunity but may mean that you partly exit just when the potential return is highest....
strong in the pips, you will soon be. trust in wmd, you should.

may the pips be with you.

skynet
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,536
  • Nov 9, 2012 3:01pm Nov 9, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting wmd
Here is the analysis which was issued to our members on Monday 5th November:

http://player.vimeo.com/video/52836460
Interesting analysis and many currency pairs followed expected behaviour, although would it be fair to say that the strength of the Yen after the 7th seemingly resulting from the US election result took the eurjpy and usdjpy to lower ranges than originally anticipated? In hindsight maybe the rapid decline in prices of these pairs should have been a warning that this was likely to happen and saved me a few of the demo pips I made on usdcad. Thus to some extent strong news can invalidate otherwise good setups.
  • #2,537
  • Nov 9, 2012 3:44pm Nov 9, 2012 3:44pm
Price has a rhythm, so map it in advance. Download any screen capture tool and draw on the chart. You will be surprised by what you already know. Then when she moves following your map you can commit your hard earned with confidence. If she's not travelling your suggested path then sit aside. You are under no obligation to pull the trigger. Raise your game by eliminating the bad ones. If you take a hit, make it a small one. If you strike the sweet spot, aim to hit the ball out the park.

This was my week.
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  • #2,538
  • Nov 9, 2012 3:55pm Nov 9, 2012 3:55pm
On Thusday evening trade note subs were alerted to the potential for a significant short trade in AudUsd.

Here are some of notes exchanged with members of my trading group and the corresponding trade.

Focus on the process.

First, establish a historical precendent. Second, map the move. Third, execute with extreme prejudice.
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  • #2,539
  • Edited 7:35pm Nov 9, 2012 7:04pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting Skynet
nice. i didnt even know this.

you trade the ES, NQ, YM....do you trade commodities too?

skynet
I do, but not actively. Maybe a few entries a month. Looking to close it down longer term and stick with currencies.

d
  • #2,540
  • Edited 7:31pm Nov 9, 2012 7:20pm | Edited 7:31pm
Quoting RandomOne
When you are good enough to read the movements I can see that the optimal solution is to react to the markets. However, for the moment the best I can do is look at the likely points of resistance / support on the way to profit and determine whether reaching there would allow me to make the trade a free one at that price. The even simpler method of selling a fixed percentage as soon as the price is sufficient reduces risk at the earliest opportunity but may mean that you partly exit just when the potential return is highest....
Absolutely RandomOne. Simple is just as good. Sometimes better.

Quoting RandomOne
[color=black]I have watched the “Trading the Nose” video on the WMD4X website and it does seem to outline some of the further points that you mentioned. Suspect that the personal training may give even more insights as it is often hard to put everything down.
Yes, there is some truth in that. A good example is the effect it had on my commodities trading. I paid for futures training (in class room) with Futures Trading Legend Larry Williams in the mid 2000's when he came to Australia. I also bought his courses, books, newsletters, etc. I spent a lot of time, and a lot of effort trying to learn how trade futures using his methodology. He has very solid methodology for understanding when a market is "set up for a move". I could get that part, and it is good. But, I really struggled with entries. So many times I would get stopped out and then the market would move away. Sooooo frustrating. I was up, down, up, down. I reality, I was just breaking even. So I gave up on commodities.

After personal training (one on one) under Will's guidance in currencies, things just started to click, one piece at a time. That's what a mentor can do.

I went back and looked at commodities again. I used the same methodology to finding the set-up commodities as before (using the Larry Williams system), BUT, the difference was, I used Will's tricks/techniques just for entries. Bang.... account up 30% in the first month. Up an addition 20% the following month. I guess its different for different people. For me, it was of great benefit.

d
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