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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #441
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:31am Nov 11, 2012 10:31am
Quoting Turveyd

Confidence is a strange thing and a fine balancing act.
Sure, but I bet you are a much better trader now than you were after your first 2 weeks of trading, right?

I introduced the rule of not trading too much because I felt I was chasing trades. This way I force myself to only take the ones I truly believe will give me a good profit. It makes you think and not only fire trades at will.
  • #442
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:32am Nov 11, 2012 10:32am
Quoting C-12
Yes I went off on a tangent then lol.

Anyway. If I follow my rules exactly as described in the post below I'd say my success rate is over 90% at a guess (if you include break even stop outs) and the risk to reward rates can be regularly over 5 and often 10+. Although I don't actually have any statistical analysis and I do appreciate this sounds a bit of a ridiculous claim.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post6179783

Not at all, it's the BE stops, your testing the water and get to +3 or something move SL and no follow through so bailing, it's a good day of doing it.

20-30% of your trades are likely BE I'd guess ? so 60%+ profitable rate ish!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #443
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:36am Nov 11, 2012 10:36am
Quoting Hct1
Sure, but I bet you are a much better trader now than you were after your first 2 weeks of trading, right?

I introduced the rule of not trading too much because I felt I was chasing trades. This way I force myself to only take the ones I truly believe will give me a good profit. It makes you think and not only fire trades at will.

Dunno, I started off profitable just then slipped into bad habits which are really hard to break and keep costing me dear.

Spending my Sunday testing new method and tweaking ready for tomorrow, lack of work = need to be profitable well already but never mind.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #444
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:36am Nov 11, 2012 10:36am
Quoting C-12
Yes I went off on a tangent then lol.

Anyway. If I follow my rules exactly as described in the post below I'd say my success rate is over 90% at a guess (if you include break even stop outs) and the risk to reward rates can be regularly over 5 and often 10+. Although I don't actually have any statistical analysis and I do appreciate this sounds a bit of a ridiculous claim.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post6179783
More or less what I thought. Very well done I must say. And this was done after just 2 months of trading?

Knowing this makes me work harder to reach that level as I know it can be done.
  • #445
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:41am Nov 11, 2012 10:41am
Quoting Turveyd
Dunno, I started off profitable just then slipped into bad habits which are really hard to break and keep costing me dear.

Spending my Sunday testing new method and tweaking ready for tomorrow, lack of work = need to be profitable well already but never mind.
I'm sure you will find your way back into profitable trading. As you said earlier it's all about discipline and not braking your own rules. But I agree, it's difficult.
  • #446
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:46am Nov 11, 2012 10:46am
Quoting Turveyd
Not at all, it's the BE stops, your testing the water and get to +3 or something move SL and no follow through so bailing, it's a good day of doing it.

20-30% of your trades are likely BE I'd guess ? so 60%+ profitable rate ish!!
I need to sit down and get the stats sorted but there are plenty of BE stop outs.

The good thing is, BE is set at 1 pip so they add a little to the profits depending on the spread at the time I get stopped out.
  • #447
  • Nov 11, 2012 11:11am Nov 11, 2012 11:11am
Hi C-12,
I just read your whole thread and I have to say WOW, you are a brilliant trader! To be able to pick this up in just a few short months is very impressive. I've been trying to trade on and off for the last 7 years, and blew through several accounts, and I still am not a profitable trader. Clearly, I am still in the newbie stages and honestly, I haven't put in the work required.

I like this style of trading, even though 99% of the people said trading on 1M TF cant be done and thats all I've been taught over and over. But you are living proof, and this is how I want to trade. Low risks, high rewards.

From what I understand, you focus on Supply/Demand (support/resistance?) lines from the higher timeframes. So you draw S/R on 4h, then 1h, and 30 min. And you are taking longs/shorts from these lines on the 1M? Am I still missing something.

Please see my marked charts:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #448
  • Nov 11, 2012 11:14am Nov 11, 2012 11:14am
Quoting C-12
I need to sit down and get the stats sorted but there are plenty of BE stop outs.

The good thing is, BE is set at 1 pip so they add a little to the profits depending on the spread at the time I get stopped out.

I do the same to pad out my win rate don't worry wrecks the average profit though all those 0's effectively.

Check out the DAX, 1pip spread, you could likely reduce your SL size 1 or 2 pips and increase the TP 2 or 3 as it's a good mover and keep the win rate very similar.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #449
  • Nov 11, 2012 11:21am Nov 11, 2012 11:21am
Quoting Xenaga03
From what I understand, you focus on Supply/Demand (support/resistance?) lines from the higher timeframes. So you draw S/R on 4h, then 1h, and 30 min. And you are taking longs/shorts from these lines on the 1M? Am I still missing something.

Please see my marked charts:
I would definitely suggest watching Sam Sieden's videos on fxstreet regarding supply and demand, which is quite a lot different to standard S/R... I do look for conventional S/R to identify price flips / PPZ levels but I am 100% a supply and demand trader.

I would strongly suggest getting up to speed with Sam Sieden's material. He's really good at explaining it.

I try not to pinpoint an M1 entry level within a H4 or M30 top/ bottom but rather be in sync with it's direction and hop onboard via the M1.
  • #450
  • Nov 11, 2012 11:25am Nov 11, 2012 11:25am
Quoting Turveyd
I do the same to pad out my win rate don't worry wrecks the average profit though all those 0's effectively.

Check out the DAX, 1pip spread, you could likely reduce your SL size 1 or 2 pips and increase the TP 2 or 3 as it's a good mover and keep the win rate very similar.
Who's your broker? I can access the DAX via GKFX but I've not checked the spread yet. I'm not so sure this broker tolerates scalping.
  • #451
  • Nov 11, 2012 11:29am Nov 11, 2012 11:29am
Quoting C-12
I would definitely suggest watching Sam Sieden's videos on fxstreet regarding supply and demand, which is quite a lot different to standard S/R... I do look for conventional S/R to identify price flips / PPZ levels but I am 100% a supply and demand trader.

I would strongly suggest getting up to speed with Sam Sieden's material. He's really good at explaining it.

I try not to pinpoint an M1 entry level within a H4 or M30 top/ bottom but rather be in sync with it's direction and hop onboard via the M1.
Thanks C-12! I'll watch the videos. I was under the impression that support/resistance is the same as supply/demand. Hopefully these videos will be illuminating.

I'll be reading this thread, glad to get in early! I know it will be a great one
  • #452
  • Nov 11, 2012 11:30am Nov 11, 2012 11:30am
Quoting C-12
Who's your broker? I can access the DAX via GKFX but I've not checked the spread yet. I'm not so sure this broker tolerates scalping.
In short it's fast move stall points isn't it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #453
  • Nov 11, 2012 12:50pm Nov 11, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting C-12
Who's your broker? I can access the DAX via GKFX but I've not checked the spread yet. I'm not so sure this broker tolerates scalping.
They love it so long as the scalping isn't HFT, i.e. under 30secs per trade!
  • #454
  • Nov 11, 2012 12:57pm Nov 11, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting Turveyd
In short it's fast move stall points isn't it.

FXCM and no worries scalping with them, DAX behaves better than EU or GU recently to, less dead and it's 1pip min move so no annoying 0.1 pip moves.

Opens 7am GMT till 8 or 9 pm, but goes to 2 pip spread after 5pm.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #455
  • Nov 11, 2012 1:44pm Nov 11, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting Turveyd
FXCM and no worries scalping with them, DAX behaves better than EU or GU recently to, less dead and it's 1pip min move so no annoying 0.1 pip moves.

Opens 7am GMT till 8 or 9 pm, but goes to 2 pip spread after 5pm.
I opened up a live FXCM spreadbetting account a few months ago. Might give this a look again. Cheers
  • #456
  • Nov 11, 2012 1:59pm Nov 11, 2012 1:59pm
Quoting C-12
I opened up a live FXCM spreadbetting account a few months ago. Might give this a look again. Cheers
Smallest you can trade is $1.30ish per pip be warned!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #457
  • Nov 11, 2012 3:01pm Nov 11, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting Turveyd
FXCM and no worries scalping with them, DAX behaves better than EU or GU recently to, less dead and it's 1pip min move so no annoying 0.1 pip moves.

Opens 7am GMT till 8 or 9 pm, but goes to 2 pip spread after 5pm.
I keep hearing that many times about the DAX. Very popular index to trade here in Europe with good liquidity and nice moves.
  • #458
  • Nov 11, 2012 3:05pm Nov 11, 2012 3:05pm
Quoting Hct1
I keep hearing that many times about the DAX. Very popular index to trade here in Europe with good liquidity and nice moves.
It seems to move with German efficiency

I just trade DAX these days ( as of last Wednesday to be fair ), but it's worth watching EU cause if EU tanks 100pips the odds are the DAX will do similar about 10 - 20mins later, yes this is kinda cheating, I like cheating!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #459
  • Nov 11, 2012 4:57pm Nov 11, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting Turveyd
It seems to move with German efficiency

I just trade DAX these days ( as of last Wednesday to be fair ), but it's worth watching EU cause if EU tanks 100pips the odds are the DAX will do similar about 10 - 20mins later, yes this is kinda cheating, I like cheating!!
That sounds good to me if the DAX reacts according to the moves on the EU. Specially if it reacts later as that will give you time to make a nice position on the DAX and profit on it. Guess I have to keep an eye on it. But 10-20 mintues sounds too much?
  • #460
  • Nov 11, 2012 7:43pm Nov 11, 2012 7:43pm
Quoting Turveyd
yes this is kinda cheating...
No such thing as cheating when it comes to trading so you might as well use it till it stops working, because it will.
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