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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #421
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:44am Nov 10, 2012 1:44am
Quoting Ratatuia
hi C-12,

would you mind commenting on the zones I tried to plot above current price. Only higher TF. Is there anything I did major wrong?
Looks good to me. The lower levels on the bottom chart aren't that great so you're right not to draw them.

Keep looking left and you'll see price has visited this area a few times. Also level structure not very clean. An easy pass for me.
  • #422
  • Nov 10, 2012 3:01am Nov 10, 2012 3:01am
Thanks.
R


Quoting C-12
Looks good to me. The lower levels on the bottom chart aren't that great so you're right not to draw them.
Keep looking left and you'll see price has visited this area a few times. Also level structure not very clean. An easy pass for me.
  • #423
  • Nov 10, 2012 3:51am Nov 10, 2012 3:51am
found this indi .. maybe it helps some of us to spot fast interesting areas and one could than manually adjust it.....

just a thought
R
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SupDem.ex4   13 KB | 371 downloads
  • #424
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:41am Nov 10, 2012 5:41am
Quoting C-12
Nice insight here Turveyd. Definitely warrants further investigation.

I was looking at Red's trade management and he would add to losers without any problems, which is very different to how Sam Seiden teaches (placing a stop directly behind the level. I've also looked at KennyZ's trades and noticed he would often allow his trades to go seriously offside before heading 100's of pips in the intended direction.

I guess this really comes down to experience and how much draw down you can tolerate.

A couple of Red's charts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post5209877

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post5182243...

If you have a place it should turn by but dont know where then your building a position and all good but....

You have to be prepared to take the loss.

You have to make profit to justify the risk no out for 5 pips.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #425
  • Nov 10, 2012 6:02am Nov 10, 2012 6:02am
Quoting Turveyd
If you have a place it should turn by but dont know where then your building a position and all good but....

You have to be prepared to take the loss.

You have to make profit to justify the risk no out for 5 pips.
Yep. I think on my M1 trades then it's a case of taking the loss. There's no point averaging into scalps.

I do think as a swing position then averaging in can make a lot of sense. Trying to build a swing position using my M1 method caused some anxiety (I was afraid to even look at the drawdown) but thankfully those positions eventually moved nicely onside.

I think I'm going to open a new account next week for swing trading.
  • #426
  • Nov 10, 2012 6:14am Nov 10, 2012 6:14am
Quoting C-12
I think I'm going to open a new account next week for swing trading.
Thats what i wanted to ask you, if you have different accounts for your trading styles.

For me it would definitely make sense to seperate the M1 scalping from the swing trades where you scale in... I might try these out too.
  • #427
  • Nov 10, 2012 6:35am Nov 10, 2012 6:35am
Quoting Infest
Thats what i wanted to ask you, if you have different accounts for your trading styles.

For me it would definitely make sense to seperate the M1 scalping from the swing trades where you scale in... I might try these out too.
Just remembered I've still got some money sat in a GKFX UK spreadbetting account. I'll top this up and get started next week. Spreads aren't great but should be fine for swing trading.
  • #428
  • Nov 11, 2012 5:59am Nov 11, 2012 5:59am
They used to be great, sucked me right in!
  • #429
  • Nov 11, 2012 6:30am Nov 11, 2012 6:30am
Quoting C-12
Yep. I think on my M1 trades then it's a case of taking the loss. There's no point averaging into scalps.

I do think as a swing position then averaging in can make a lot of sense. Trying to build a swing position using my M1 method caused some anxiety (I was afraid to even look at the drawdown) but thankfully those positions eventually moved nicely onside.

I think I'm going to open a new account next week for swing trading.
Not 6sl scalps anyway if it ain't broke don't fix it, there is enough for me currently but new method might work better with tighter SL and not, got to run the numbers today.

Forex is to changeable to swing much better off with stocks, I was a good very good stock swing trader many many years back.

Trying to go more scalp myself, leaves less to random chance I don't like random chance.

Only trading DAX from here 1 pip SL and good range make it a no brainier, starting off 3 pips down gets me to emotional It seems.


Time to play the F12 sim game again
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #430
  • Nov 11, 2012 8:27am Nov 11, 2012 8:27am
Quoting Turveyd
Forex is to changeable to swing much better off with stocks, I was a good very good stock swing trader many many years back.
You maybe right T, but it's definitely possible with forex. One of my favourite traders Ken Mann (KennyZ) over at Ace Gazette regularly posts some incredible swing trades on ace gazette. He started off scalping and now only plays the daily and H4 supply and demand levels.

Here's a couple of his latest charts.

Makes it look almost too easy!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_003.png Size: 22 KB
  • #431
  • Nov 11, 2012 8:57am Nov 11, 2012 8:57am
Hi C-12 and everyone else,

Really glad to have found this thread. This is more or less exactly how I trade myself but using S/R levels, I haven't really thought about looking at it as demand and supply levels. Nice to see that there are others here playing the M1, and as far as I can see with extremely good accuracy as well. Will dwell more into the other links posted thoughout the thread to get more details about S/D.

Looking at all the charts that have been posted by all members the entry points are spot on. I'm however curious about some of the statistics behind it. C-12 if you don't mind sharing, what would you say is your average winning rate? There is no need to get into exact numbers but just to get an idea. Somehow I get a feeling that you are close to 90% or even higher with this approach. If that is the case, it's just another very good proof that scalpers are very profitable on the lower TFs. What else can be said about Turveyd? A well known scalper here in FF. Good to see him in the one minute wonder thread.

Now subscribed to pick up more ideas and hopefully to share some as well.
  • #432
  • Nov 11, 2012 9:30am Nov 11, 2012 9:30am
Quoting Hct1
Looking at all the charts that have been posted by all members the entry points are spot on. I'm however curious about some of the statistics behind it. C-12 if you don't mind sharing, what would you say is your average winning rate?
Hey welcome to the thread

My winning streaks can be pretty incredible at times. However, I'll be straight up honest and say I am still guilty of reckless trading if I do lose a few, sometimes moving my stops or increasing position size. I've given a full weeks worth of profits back within 30 minutes before.

This mostly happens when I deviate from my method or if I try and pick H4 & H1 tops or bottoms on the M1 chart. I'm a new (ish) trader so the self sabotage and discipline is something I'm working really hard to eliminate.

Overall though, this method is working really well and my account has grown significantly. Some days the profits defy logic, some days I trade like a numpty. I'll post up some account history next week so you can get an idea.
  • #433
  • Nov 11, 2012 9:33am Nov 11, 2012 9:33am
Quoting C-12
Hey welcome to the thread

My winning streaks can be pretty incredible at times. However, I'll be straight up honest and say I am still guilty of reckless trading if I do lose a few, sometimes moving my stops or increasing position size. I've given a full weeks worth of profits back within 30 minutes before.

This mostly happens when I deviate from my method or if I try and pick H4 & H1 tops or bottoms on the M1 chart. I'm a new (ish) trader so the self sabotage and discipline is something I'm working really hard to eliminate.

Overall though,...

I see we both have the same exact issue there, not wanting to accept a loss and move on, is a serious issue isn't it, especially after a long run of perfect trades and the trade looked perfect but something changes.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #434
  • Nov 11, 2012 9:45am Nov 11, 2012 9:45am
Thanks C-12.

No need to pull up your account history here. I already know that you are successfull trader. Just curious to know your average winning rate in percentage regarding win-loss ratio. That's all.

What you describe is one of the biggest problems among traders: Discipline and following your rules no matter what.

I'm not completly new to FX. Started a few years ago but got burned badly loosing everything, even though it was only on demo. I would never start trading real money unless my demo account show good signs of profit. So I simply took a break of 2 years as I wasn't really mature to continue. I started 2 weeks ago again with a better plan, however still on a early stage and finetuning it. Trading mainly EURUSD on M1 reaching for 5-20 pips at the time, whatever I can grab at the moment. I have managed to get around 150 pips in this period of 2 weeks. My current problem is that I still have too many loosers. Approximately 40% of my trades are bad and I really need to change it to the other direction. My goal is to get as close as possibile to a winning rate of 90%. Difficult? Yes. But not impossible.

It will require time, more screentime and specially more time in this thread



Quoting C-12
Hey welcome to the thread

My winning streaks can be pretty incredible at times. However, I'll be straight up honest and say I am still guilty of reckless trading if I do lose a few, sometimes moving my stops or increasing position size. I've given a full weeks worth of profits back within 30 minutes before.

This mostly happens when I deviate from my method or if I try and pick H4 & H1 tops or bottoms on the M1 chart. I'm a new (ish) trader so the self sabotage and discipline is something I'm working really hard to eliminate.

Overall though,...
  • #435
  • Nov 11, 2012 9:52am Nov 11, 2012 9:52am
Quoting Hct1
Approximately 40% of my trades are bad and I really need to change it to the other direction. My goal is to get as close as possbile to a winning rate of 90%. Difficult? Yes. But not impossible.

It will require time and more screentime and specially more time in this thread

60% win rate is considered good, if you can keep it at that ofcourse, might not be worth fixing ??

What's your average loser ? and average profit ?

If your losing 10pips average and making 5pips average then you've got an issue, then work out why profit is so low and if fixable ??

75% win rate is do able and about right, then more you aim for the less trades you'll take, although not giving back is nice you'll likely be making more trades at 75% and making more money compared to being ultra picky on what you take.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #436
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:08am Nov 11, 2012 10:08am
As always you want to improve yourself and your skills, which will have a big effect on your trading and success. One of my problems is that I'm never satisfied, I always want to get better.

I try to keep my losers rather small. I would say they are between 5-10 pips but could be even 20 pips on ocassion, which is simply my fault. Hoping for price to reverse by giving it "more space". Sometimes this just ends really ugly if my judgement of the entry is wrong. Regarding average winner, I would say probably around 8-9 pips. if I like the current trend and PA I will let it run and get even more than that.

Another thing I need to work on is trying to make more trades. I consider myself a rather gutless scalper as I only make 1 or 2 trades a day, but I think that has to do with me being still fresh trading. The number of trades will increase as I get more experience.




Quoting Turveyd
60% win rate is considered good, if you can keep it at that ofcourse, might not be worth fixing ??

What's your average loser ? and average profit ?

If your losing 10pips average and making 5pips average then you've got an issue, then work out why profit is so low and if fixable ??

75% win rate is do able and about right, then more you aim for the less trades you'll take, although not giving back is nice you'll likely be making more trades at 75% and making more money compared to being ultra picky on what you take.
  • #437
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:14am Nov 11, 2012 10:14am
Quoting Hct1
As always you want to improve yourself and your skills, which will have a big effect on your trading and success. One of my problems is that I'm never satisfied, I always want to get better.

I try to keep my losers rather small. I would say they are between 5-10 pips but could be even 20 pips on ocassion, which is simply my fault. Hoping for price to reverse by giving it "more space". Sometimes this just ends really ugly if my judgement of the entry is wrong. Regarding average winner, I would say probably around 8-9 pips. if I like the current...

Likewise, always trying to look for an extra edge.

More space is always bad, if moving against KILL it, but I'm guilty of this to, need a method which protects me from this which I'm working on today.

I'm 8-9 to, so seldom get good PA and follow through, aiming for more is bad, but when it offers it I can get 20-30.

I bet you make 1 - 2 trades your up and think, don't want to lose it so stop trading ?? cause I do that less so these days.

It's tricky!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #438
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:21am Nov 11, 2012 10:21am
Quoting Turveyd

I bet you make 1 - 2 trades your up and think, don't want to lose it so stop trading ?? cause I do that less so these days.

It's tricky!!

Exactly. If a made 1 or 2 good trades I don't want to give the pips back to the market. But that is part of my current trading plan. In case a made around 20 pips for day I quit trading.

Just re-starting small at the moment and the main reason is to not overtrade. Taking too many trades if you don't have a very good winning rate will have you bleeding pips. But again, when my confidence and winning improves so will my number of trades.
  • #439
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:25am Nov 11, 2012 10:25am
Quoting Hct1
Exactly. If a made 1 or 2 good trades I don't want to give the pips back to the market. But that is part of my current trading plan. In case a made around 20 pips for day I quit trading.

Just re-starting small at the moment and the main reason is to not overtrade. Taking too many trades if you don't have a very good winning rate will have you bleeding pips. But again, when my confidence and winning improves so will my number of trades.
1 sure fire setup, when I post something confident in my journal reverse my next trade, confidence gets me cocky and some how the next trade always costs me dear as I get emotional.

Confidence is a strange thing and a fine balancing act.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #440
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:28am Nov 11, 2012 10:28am
Quoting Hct1
Thanks C-12.

No need to pull up your account history here. I already know that you are successfull trader. Just curious to know your average winning rate in percentage regarding win-loss ratio. That's all.
Yes I went off on a tangent then lol.

Anyway. If I follow my rules exactly as described in the post below I'd say my success rate is over 90% at a guess (if you include break even stop outs) and the risk to reward rates can be regularly over 5 and often 10+. Although I don't actually have any statistical analysis and I do appreciate this sounds a bit of a ridiculous claim.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post6179783
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