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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #60,541
  • Nov 9, 2012 6:21pm Nov 9, 2012 6:21pm
Sorry i was so busy, well pretty much because my sentiment is major bearish right now, but price should not go lower without first going up, support could be a very good place for that. All fundies, all cycles, all markets,all indies are showing me bearish bias. I think if there is a pullback maybe the Currency Meter will detect it, I let you know. Also you could look for pa formations and volume. I dunno if you have a short position already ,but if you do, you could open 1/2 half that position on long and if prices go the other way (going down) then you could close it and lose only half of your profit in some sense, not allowing losses beyond your half profit,,if prices go up then you could win half profit, i dunno if I explained this well

Quoting Stimulus
GINO,
Ref report:
Do the 2 trendlines provide your only basis for reaching 1.30 again? Any FIBOS?
  • #60,542
  • Nov 10, 2012 12:30am Nov 10, 2012 12:30am
Quoting PipsJunkie
Hi PT, thanks for sharing your experience with us on this forum, i currently have a real account in MB Trading, and i am thinking of either moving my account or opening a new account in FXCM, so i need advice on your side. Which platform is the best, Meta Trader 4 or Trading Station? I basically do some scalping, 3 to 6 transactions per day, and keep open a couple for a few days when i see the potential of a good trend.

Thanks in advance and good weekend to all,
Hi PJ.. That all depends on you. I suggest using both of them and then decide. With FXCM, One username and password will allow you to use both of them simultaneously. My preference for chart analysis is MT4 because it is much simpler and more user friendly. However, TSII offers much quicker execution.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #60,543
  • Nov 10, 2012 2:56am Nov 10, 2012 2:56am
1.271 has been finally reached and the price actually parked there for the weekend. This gives us the opportunity to try and establish another downside vertical count which yields 1.263. There is (as usual) a possibility that the price will go up to touch one of the trend lines (~ 1.278-1.286), which is not in itself a reason enough to annihilate the downside trend yet. All in all it suggests that staying on the short side is a little safer than trading the long one (taking into account that there still should be a valid sell signal which for the time being tentatively comes at 1.268; a valid buy signal, on the other hand, may be taken at 1.279, but considering the proximity of the trend line and lack of an upside count of any sort at this stage it would be risky, to say the least).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.PNG Size: 59 KB


Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Thanks.
  • #60,544
  • Nov 10, 2012 3:02am Nov 10, 2012 3:02am
Quoting CheG
1.271 has been finally reached and the price actually parked there for the weekend. This gives us the opportunity to try and establish another downside vertical count which yields 1.263. There is (as usual) a possibility that the price will go up to touch one of the trend lines (~ 1.278-1.286), which is not in itself a reason enough to annihilate the downside trend yet. All in all it suggests that staying on the short side is a little safer than trading the long one...
From your 1 Min chart : Almost closer to a double bottom zone. And that zone would decide next weeks move. If your trade is based on tradelines, then you need to consider short (20), mid (50) and long term (100, 200) days trends for trade direction.
  • #60,545
  • Nov 10, 2012 3:44am Nov 10, 2012 3:44am
Quoting rekon67
From your 1 Min chart : Almost closer to a double bottom zone. And that zone would decide next weeks move. If your trade is based on tradelines, then you need to consider short (20), mid (50) and long term (100, 200) days trends for trade direction.
Thank you rekon67.

A small correction if I may: this is not actually a 1 min chart, but a Point and Figure chart and 1 min at the upper-left hand corner of the screen simply shows the interval used to create the chart, in other words, it is constructed with tick data.
0.001×3 means that every box is 0.0010 points and 3 is the number of boxes required to change from a column of Xs (green) to a column of Os (red) or from a column of Os to a column of Xs.

My apologies for not having stated it before.

Thanks.
  • #60,546
  • Nov 10, 2012 3:58am Nov 10, 2012 3:58am
Quoting CheG
Thank you rekon67.

A small correction if I may: this is not actually a 1 min chart, but a Point and Figure chart and 1 min at the upper-left hand corner of the screen simply shows the interval used to create the chart, in other words, it is constructed with tick data.
0.001×3 means that every box is 0.0010 points and 3 is the number of boxes required to change from a column of Xs (green) to a column of Os (red) or from a column of Os to a column of Xs.

My apologies for not having stated it before.

Thanks....
Very unique and good chart. Thanks.
  • #60,547
  • Nov 10, 2012 4:29am Nov 10, 2012 4:29am
I have some questions in regards to "Open Positions" and how reliable they are when looking at Oanda retail accounts.

For example: Looking at EUR/AUD I notice pretty large buy orders at about 1.2050. These "open orders" would show up on the graph if somebody have a "buy/sell limit order" correct?

Reason I ask is if somebody where to create a buy order of like 5,000 contracts or something along those lines, it could show up as large orders even if they don't plan on executing the trades when the time comes.

I'm not saying this is the case, and I'm not sure WHY anybody would do this, but looking at 1.0250 on weekly and monthly charts I don't see it being of any significance as far as support and resistance goes. Trying to figure out why there is such a large "buy order" at that level and if Oanda's open orders book should even be considered?

Thoughts?


http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#EUR/AUD
  • #60,548
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:10am Nov 10, 2012 5:10am
Let's say one of my live accounts has $10,000,000 in it, I can create Billions of pending orders in MT4 but when PA hit my order and it exceeded available margin will be automatically moved to account history without being executed. Though I think it's possible to put Trillions of orders exceeding available margin but never tried it. It will take hell of the time to create such orders in MT4.

I don't think Oanda is different from other brokers unless it's a signed institutional contract with a guarantee to be executed, it doesn't mean anything IMO.
  • #60,549
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:22am Nov 10, 2012 5:22am
Quoting Ken A
Let's say one of my live accounts has $10,000,000 in it, I can create Billions of pending orders in MT4 but when PA hit my order and it exceeded available margin will be automatically moved to account history without being executed. Though I think it's possible to put Trillions of orders exceeding available margin but never tried it. It will take hell of the time to create such orders in MT4.

I don't think Oanda is different from other brokers unless it's a signed institutional contract with a guarantee to be executed, it doesn't mean anything...
That's what I was thinking as well... My target is still 1.17 for E/A and when I saw the open orders at that level I went to take a look again at my weekly/monthly support levels to see if that area was of any real significance.

Besides 1.20 being a round number I can't really see it being of much importance...

Quick question Ken: Why would it take a long time to create those kind of orders on MT4? Is there a certain limit of contracts one can execute per trade?

Thanks for the reply!
  • #60,550
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:29am Nov 10, 2012 5:29am
Quoting 100PipsADay
That's what I was thinking as well... My target is still 1.17 for E/A and when I saw the open orders at that level I went to take a look again at my weekly/monthly support levels to see if that area was of any real significance.

Besides 1.20 being a round number I can't really it being of much importance...

Quick question Ken: Why would it take a long time to create those kind of orders on MT4? Is there a certain limit of contracts one can execute per trade?

Thanks for the reply!
In MT4 there's a limit of 100, 1,000 and 10,000 lots per order depends on brokers or if it's a standard/mini lot. For standard lot, 10,000 lot = $1,000,000,000. For one trillion you need to create 1,000 orders manually.

What we are seeing in Oanda could be marketing strategy if the broker trade against its clients.
  • #60,551
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:35am Nov 10, 2012 5:35am
Quoting Ken A
In MT4 there's a limit of 100, 1,000 and 10,000 lots per order depends on brokers or if it's a standard/mini lot. For standard lot, 10,000 lot = $1,000,000,000. For one trillion you need to create 1,000 orders manually.
Interesting... Learn something new every day!

E/A is definitely at a pretty solid support area right now @ 1.22 when looking at a weekly chart. Once broken and confirmed then 1.17 - 1.16 is next. At that time I will see how support reacts to price action and take it from there. Should be a really nice long opportunity at that level, especially if the "fiscal cliff" turns into a "2008" type of event!
  • #60,552
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:41am Nov 10, 2012 5:41am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Interesting... Learn something new every day!

E/A is definitely at a pretty solid support area right now @ 1.22 when looking at a weekly chart. Once broken and confirmed then 1.17 - 1.16 is next. At that time I will see how support reacts to price action and take it from there. Should be a really nice long opportunity at that level, especially if the "fiscal cliff" turns into a "2008" type of event!
I will watch AUD very closely. IF other markets such as emerging ASIA stocks are offering better yield, AUD can drop like a rock. In larger time frame AUD is not looking good.
  • #60,553
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:44am Nov 10, 2012 5:44am
Quoting Ken A
I will watch AUD very closely. IF other markets such as emerging ASIA stocks are offering better yield, AUD can drop like a rock.
Yep, I'm counting on it! Just not quite yet...

Looking for re-test of weekly downward TL at about 1.058 or so. I'm going to go short at that level and look to build long term short positions. I really don't see A/U going to 1.08 = 1.10 again. Not anytime soon anyways...
  • #60,554
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:47am Nov 10, 2012 5:47am
Quoting Ken A
I will watch AUD very closely. IF other markets such as emerging ASIA stocks are offering better yield, AUD can drop like a rock. In larger time frame AUD is not looking good.
Take a look at this Ken: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/trend...50870?FIELD9=2
  • #60,555
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:48am Nov 10, 2012 5:48am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yep, I'm counting on it! Just not quite yet...

Looking for re-test of weekly downward TL at about 1.058 or so. I'm going to go short at that level and look to build long term short positions. I really don't see A/U going to 1.08 = 1.10 again. Not anytime soon anyways...
IMO if US markets can get over the fiscal cliff issue or if the markets have confidence to invest - AUD might decline but as you said not anytime soon.
  • #60,556
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:51am Nov 10, 2012 5:51am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Take a look at this Ken: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/trend...50870?FIELD9=2
Thanks for the article. That's also what I feel, money will always seek better yield and relatively safe instrument.
  • #60,557
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:56am Nov 10, 2012 5:56am
Quoting Ken A
Thanks for the article. That's also what I feel, money will always seek better yield and relatively safe instrument.
You're welcome Ken. You got that right, probably why AUD has been so strong lately. But......

"Nothing lasts forever..."
  • #60,558
  • Nov 10, 2012 10:28pm Nov 10, 2012 10:28pm
Friday Review: Should I buy the possible pullback or wait for entry on Resistance?

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders.

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to [color=blue][email protected][/color]) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)
Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend. I will make a FAQ with any questions you have.
(Also if I missed any subscriber please let me know ASAP)

Have a great weekend
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 10.11.2012.pdf   709 KB | 232 downloads
  • #60,559
  • Nov 11, 2012 6:06am Nov 11, 2012 6:06am
Quoting rekon67
My definition of a complete cycle is a period of 40 to 49 days where you identify a trading direction on daily (could be a horizontal range / inclining range/ declining range ) and execute favourable orders. There is no need to do frequent trades or multiple trades, daily trades etc.

When your technical set-up matches you execute trade. You have a set of scripts which will allow you fire 100s of trades at a point and automatically close all or proportion at the specified profit level.

You are bias-free with the clear technicals and you execute...

It is important to identify the strategy which suits your personality and you continuously self-engaged to improve it.


“So how do you trade? You mentioned that you were in and out all day long.”

“Well, Harry,” she started. “Now imagine that you have a 1-pip spread on the EUR/USD. You already know that the pair can move up and down all day long. Or just up. Or just down.”

“Right.”

“Its average daily range is 130. This means that it is going to move that many pips on average. But in between, it’s going to move a bit up, a bit down, and so forth. I just grab 1 pip at a time out of the market, all day long.”

“How many pips can you get?”

“My daily goal is 40. I can do that three or four days every week.”

“Do you trade a standard lot?”

She laughed. “No. I trade Tens.”

“Tens?”

“As in ten million. Ten-million-dollar positions. On the EUR, that’s one thousand dollars per pip.”

She was making forty thousand dollars a day. Two hundred thousand dollars every week. Ten million dollars a year. Holy crap.

I realized that she was glancing at her screen and setting up another trade, so I decided that I would give her some space. Harvey and I thanked her for her time and we left.
  • #60,560
  • Nov 11, 2012 7:06am Nov 11, 2012 7:06am
Quoting rekon67
It is important to identify the strategy which suits your personality and you continuously self-engaged to improve it.


“So how do you trade? You mentioned that you were in and out all day long.”

“Well, Harry,” she started. “Now imagine that you have a 1-pip spread on the EUR/USD. You already know that the pair can move up and down all day long. Or just up. Or just down.”

“Right.”

“Its average daily range is 130. This means that it is going to move that many pips on average. But in between, it’s going to move a bit up, a bit down,...
and paying 10m a year in commissions. anyone with that kind of capital wouldnt be scalping for 1 tick plus actually getting a fill on 100 lots 40x per day at 50x leverage would not be easy. in fact, the only one i can think of is probably CitiFX.
Any prices quoted are futures
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