LJ Forex Group | Page 199 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

JPY Group - Best Group to Trade 60 replies

Your experience with Forex.com [GAIN Capital Group, LLC] 37 replies

Forex Techniques Development Group 24 replies

FOREX, Robert Gray, FXLQ, and Nfa/ctfc... PLEASE REPOST IN EVERY GROUP 0 replies

Attachments: LJ Forex Group
Exit Attachments

LJ Forex Group

  • #3,961
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:02pm Nov 6, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting Price.Action
I see some supply at 1.29264. Is this what you are talking about?
Yes that is an FTB setup on my current watchlist.
  • #3,962
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:53pm Nov 6, 2012 5:53pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Another example in finding decision points to base entry and SL around on a trade I'm currently in...EJ H1 FTB - an FTB which is both an SR zone and an SD zone.

My entry was just below the zone edge marked and my SL was just above that higher DP zone - the way price left that zone tells me price has a low chance of getting above there and the setup still working out - so my SL was @ 103.17 (i.e. small buffer) plus spread.
Just hit my conservative TP (don't like holding trades overnight).

Notice where price reacted off in the end - the higher DP zone as marked out on M1...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ H1.png Size: 239 KB
  • #3,963
  • Nov 7, 2012 3:14am Nov 7, 2012 3:14am
Sold GBP/NZD @ 1.9320
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GN 1M.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #3,964
  • Nov 7, 2012 3:38am Nov 7, 2012 3:38am
Quoting Balhana
Sold GBP/NZD @ 1.9320
Closed 2/3 @ 1.9303 for +34 pips. SL is still @ 1.9340
  • #3,965
  • Nov 7, 2012 4:46am Nov 7, 2012 4:46am
Quoting Balhana
Closed 2/3 @ 1.9303 for +34 pips. SL is still @ 1.9340
Closed remaining 1/3 @ 1.9285 (+69 pips in total).
  • #3,966
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:50am Nov 7, 2012 9:50am
I have a hindsight trade. I am curios if it's correct and if anyone here saw and took it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad hindisght sd.jpg Size: 131 KB
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #3,967
  • Nov 7, 2012 11:54am Nov 7, 2012 11:54am
Missed a beautiful setup on GBP/CAD today.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD 4H.jpg Size: 158 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD 1H.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #3,968
  • Nov 7, 2012 12:03pm Nov 7, 2012 12:03pm
A swing setup on NZDJPY weekly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY Weekly.jpg Size: 128 KB
  • #3,969
  • Nov 7, 2012 3:47pm Nov 7, 2012 3:47pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I have a hindsight trade. I am curios if it's correct and if anyone here saw and took it.

Attachment
Yes this is a good setup and one I took, though I didn't see any decent signs for this sustained USD strength so bailed for only 1R.
  • #3,970
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:22am Nov 8, 2012 1:22am
As well as the UCAD trade (+1R) yesterday I also had the following:

1. Gold - FB of an SR and swing higher after hitting clear supply +1.15R
2. GU SR FTB - exited for -0.60R
3. EU -M15 FTB -just a quick scalp for +0.92R
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold.jpg Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU M30.jpg Size: 95 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU M15.jpg Size: 88 KB
  • #3,971
  • Nov 8, 2012 9:05am Nov 8, 2012 9:05am
Quoting lovejoy80
As well as the UCAD trade (+1R) yesterday I also had the following:

1. Gold - FB of an SR and swing higher after hitting clear supply +1.15R
2. GU SR FTB - exited for -0.60R
3. EU -M15 FTB -just a quick scalp for +0.92R
LJ,can you go over GU and USD/CHF trade(tweet) when yo have time, and explane when and why you decided to move Sl so you don`t have 1r loss?
thanks
  • #3,972
  • Nov 8, 2012 4:32pm Nov 8, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting pex
LJ,can you go over GU and USD/CHF trade(tweet) when yo have time, and explane when and why you decided to move Sl so you don`t have 1r loss?
thanks
The GU setup was a H1 TF FTB. However I have attached the 30min TF chart below as it show's the logic behind the decision to tighten the SL more clearly.

My original SL was just below the lower SR marked - this was the main first demand area below the SR was trading hence the scenario that occurred is what potentially could have happened i.e. price moved down quickly to the lower demand (in the form of the SR) before bouncing hard and closing back above the higher FTB SR area.

Now this strong bounce is a strong rejection from demand. But what I want to know is whether it is a 'true' rejection - by that I mean will it cause price to move higher or is it in fact just demand consumption paving the way for a move lower.

With this in mind, if it is in fact 'true' rejection then price is not likely to come back down to the lower SR again and still hold the higher FTB SR area as support i.e. if price comes down this far again it tells us that we have had demand consumption (of course everything is on the balance of probabilities) and that it is much more likely that a breakout has occurred.

Therefore it made sense to tighten the SL - I moved it to 1.6002.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU M30.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #3,973
  • Nov 8, 2012 4:48pm Nov 8, 2012 4:48pm
UCHF was a M15 FB setup. Clear SR with a clear FB of this SR.

I reduced my SL from 41's to 39's after the successful retest of the SR on the next bar. I then cut 50% of the trade after the next bearish bar and finally my SL got hit when price moved lower before price went parabolic (relative).

Did I make a mistake here, was I too quick too tighten my SL and cut some of the trade (something which is common amongst retail PA traders as most trade scared and are thinking about when can they reduce risk when they are in a trade rather than what they should be thinking which is how can I maximise profit)? The answer is no and here is why...

1. Because we know what is happening behind the FB bar we know how price should move - FB's are order-flow based and because of this order-flow we know price should move with good momentum straight after or not long after the FB has formed. Thus, this not happening is a sign of the order-flow we expect not being present.

2. The bar marked with the 2nd bar, just like the GU trade was a rejection bar - it was a successful retest of the support - thus again I expect price to then start moving up further with good momentum if this is 'true' rejection. As we can see price retraced it on the next bar and started moving lower - this 'indicates' demand consumption and that the probability of the setup working out has materially decreased now - enough to not want to be in the trade with the same exposure.

However, of course price did actually move up in the end with great momentum - was this because of the FB that occurred, for me no, for me it was a news based move.

When making trade management decisions it's important to be objective and not mechanical or irrational and make decisions on what would produce the highest profit over the long term i.e. I would do the same thing again 100 times over, why, because I know the logic was correct and that if I did that 100 times I'd actually be correct a lot more often than not (in terms of saving myself from a 1R loss).

This is different to what some do, which is tighten their SL virtually as soon as the trade starts moving in their favour - based on no logic other than the fact the want to reduce their exposure...this is the standard example of someone trading scared and someone trading with a wider SL than they should had in the first place.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf m15.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #3,974
  • Nov 8, 2012 4:52pm Nov 8, 2012 4:52pm
Another FB trade I took today - Bund on M5. Exactly the same as the UCHF FB setup above, this time it was an M5 SR with a M10 FB after hitting demand.

Note how price initially did the same thing that UCHF did - it had a successful retest of the SR which is an indication of 'true' rejection and a good momentum follow through is likely to occur. Unlike UCHF, Bund behaved as FB's should - price move dup with good momentum to the FLR of the 83 SR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bund.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #3,975
  • Nov 8, 2012 5:27pm Nov 8, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Another FB trade I took today - Bund on M5. Exactly the same as the UCHF FB setup above, this time it was an M5 SR with a M10 FB after hitting demand.

Note how price initially did the same thing that UCHF did - it had a successful retest of the SR which is an indication of 'true' rejection and a good momentum follow through is likely to occur. Unlike UCHF, Bund behaved as FB's should - price move dup with good momentum to the FLR of the 83 SR.
thanks a lot
  • #3,976
  • Nov 8, 2012 6:40pm Nov 8, 2012 6:40pm
did anyone take this EUR/JPY FTB?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: shorts-chf.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #3,977
  • Nov 9, 2012 4:09am Nov 9, 2012 4:09am
LJ , A little help please . I was planning to take this trade as a bulls trap of an SR but what went wrong as the setup did not work . What do you think ?
Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 16 KB
Human
  • #3,978
  • Nov 9, 2012 4:10am Nov 9, 2012 4:10am
Quoting ezz
did anyone take this EUR/JPY FTB?
Nice trade outcome, but that's not an FTB, it's the 2nd time back as price has already hit this area as per the arrow to the left.

I actually traded the FTB of the SD zones marked.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ.png Size: 28 KB
  • #3,979
  • Nov 9, 2012 4:30am Nov 9, 2012 4:30am
Quoting Chanya
LJ , A little help please . I was planning to take this trade as a bulls trap of an SR but what went wrong as the setup did not work . What do you think ?
Regards
When looking for a bull trap of an SR you want a) a clear concise SR - one that is obvious many traders are looking at in terms of a potential breakout and b) you want a quick material move above that SR which is then completely reversed - either on the same bar or something like the 10min bar on the Bund setup from yesterday. If we also have a clear range or a recent sideways moving market then even better (like S&P below).

I don't see either of those on your GCHF chart - no clear SR and no quick move above and back below?

A couple of recent examples of very good SR FB's. S&P from yesterday and a D2 AJ FB (which I traded).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EP.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ D2.png Size: 30 KB
  • #3,980
  • Nov 9, 2012 4:51am Nov 9, 2012 4:51am
Quoting lovejoy80
When looking for a bull trap of an SR you want a) a clear concise SR - one that is obvious many traders are looking at in terms of a potential breakout and b) you want a quick material move above that SR which is then completely reversed - either on the same bar or something like the 10min bar on the Bund setup from yesterday. If we also have a clear range or a recent sideways moving market then even better (like S&P below).

I don't see either of those on your GCHF chart - no clear SR and no quick move above and back below?

A couple of recent...
Thank You
Human
10 traders viewing now