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  • #715,301
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:21am Nov 7, 2012 7:21am
Quoting fighterdude
Long at 1.2765...
Crazy.

Sell stop 1.27350.. and bed.
  • #715,302
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:21am Nov 7, 2012 7:21am
Quoting cdndollar
Dollar Index vs EURUSD
The USD Index & EURUSD converging at M/T cross road again from diametrically opposite ends..
Scenario 1:
USD Index & EURUSD cross & continue on their merry ways..
ie. Euro ---> 1.27~1.25 continue ---> 1.20
Scenario 2:
USD Index & EURUSD cross, over-shot then reverse..
ie. Euro ---> 1.27~1.25 reverse ---> 1.35

Both scenario offers very good betting odds for muti-figure follow through PA..

Attachment
USD Index & EURUSD now Crossed with STO strength.. (not O/B)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #715,303
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:23am Nov 7, 2012 7:23am
Quoting attila
Something's telling me that daily bearish engulfing into lows is not a good sign for shorts..Let's see where this pull back is taking it.
can you explain more about your concern?
  • #715,304
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:25am Nov 7, 2012 7:25am
out for +7.... will look for another entry short... or if we break 1.2766 then I'll take a long if the RR is good...
  • #715,305
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:26am Nov 7, 2012 7:26am
Quoting Magicmen
can you explain more about your concern?
Bearish engulfing into lows or bullish engulfing into highs usually signals the climax before reversal. It's where people are suckered into the worst trades. Bearish engulfing into lows (I have to admit this is not the kind of low I would like to see) is a bullish sign.
  • #715,306
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:27am Nov 7, 2012 7:27am
over

now lets see how 51 works...im Be out btw

still...loooking again for l
  • #715,307
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:29am Nov 7, 2012 7:29am
Quoting attila
Bearish engulfing into lows or bullish engulfing into highs usually signals the climax before reversal. It's where people are suckered into the worst trades. Bearish engulfing into lows (I have to admit this is not the kind of low I would like to see) is a bullish sign.
Its also US election day, and the PA very early on was pretty interesting. Thus the daily candle looking the way it does.
  • #715,308
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:30am Nov 7, 2012 7:30am
Quoting attila
Bearish engulfing into lows or bullish engulfing into highs usually signals the climax before reversal. It's where people are suckered into the worst trades. Bearish engulfing into lows (I have to admit this is not the kind of low I would like to see) is a bullish sign.
that's interesting... haven't seen that yet in my study of candles.

about what percentage of the time would that rule hold?
  • #715,309
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:33am Nov 7, 2012 7:33am
Added to shorts during election coverage. We are still barely hanging on to the last VA on the H4 chart. If she finally breaks we'll see the 2640 area at a minimum.
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  • #715,310
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:36am Nov 7, 2012 7:36am
Equities open will help break the support... gotta wait an hour though....

Hopefully by then EURUSD has drifted back up to 1.2760/62 or so.... Nice RR for shorts there...
  • #715,311
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:37am Nov 7, 2012 7:37am
if i were an Elliott wonk (i'm not), i'd say there's a big o'l wave 5 coming after what appears to be an extended 4th wave that we're in right now.

if the "3rd wave is never the smallest" rule holds, seems like we could have a 5th that goes down another couple hundred pips.

any EW experts here with an opinion?


PS: there is also a very clearly defined tl that can be drawn across the peaks from feb thru may of this year that is confirmed at other levels and which comes in at about 2647 (assuming rate of fall stays constant) that could be the actual bottom of this move down.
  • #715,312
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:37am Nov 7, 2012 7:37am
Quoting attila
Bearish engulfing into lows or bullish engulfing into highs usually signals the climax before reversal. It's where people are suckered into the worst trades. Bearish engulfing into lows (I have to admit this is not the kind of low I would like to see) is a bullish sign.
That's why we have to wait for the US.

But such bearish engulfing candle would have more power (for bulls) if it were into new ground without "anything" on the left.

A move back above 1,2820 may cancel this move down IMO.
Strong buyers in 1,274x-60 area, PA may be in the process to agree with bulls this time.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #715,313
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:38am Nov 7, 2012 7:38am
Time for retrace but be careful, more short is on the way.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #715,314
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:40am Nov 7, 2012 7:40am
divergence trading
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  • #715,315
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:43am Nov 7, 2012 7:43am
Quoting 1candlepower
that's interesting... haven't seen that yet in my study of candles.

about what percentage of the time would that rule hold?
I haven't ran any numbers but I never short this configuration or long the reverse.
  • #715,316
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:44am Nov 7, 2012 7:44am
Quoting kuroro001
That's why we have to wait for the US.

But such bearish engulfing candle would have more power (for bulls) if it were into new ground without "anything" on the left.

A move back above 1,2820 may cancel this move down IMO.
Strong buyers in 1,274x-60 area, PA may be in the process to agree with bulls this time.
True. It's not in the ideal configuration but I'm still cautious.
  • #715,317
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:46am Nov 7, 2012 7:46am
Very simple, we're down 140 pips in a few hours, that is begging for a retrace.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #715,318
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:48am Nov 7, 2012 7:48am
  •  orzels
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Buy at resistance, Sell at support™ | 309 Posts
Quoting salman14
divergence trading
Beautiful
  • #715,319
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:48am Nov 7, 2012 7:48am
I'll be watching if it moves back above 2773. That would take it back up to the top.
  • #715,320
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:49am Nov 7, 2012 7:49am
I will sell for some pips on 1.2765, 1.2782/89.
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