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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

Quoting PipTrapper
Harper must have popped a viagra so he can mount his rocking horse while sucking on a lollipop.
That is so wrong in so many ways PT!
Edit: Top Mofo
Quoting PipTrapper
The calm before the storm.
You really do enjoy scaring people LOL

Who is selling gold? Hedge funds? It can't be of the dollar strength.

But Euro really looks like going to break 1.2800.
Quoting magicgate
Could U open your mind at xag for this evening andthenext week, - low 30.81 is the lowest or may go down today?
My trader whom I've invested a little holds underwater 7 buys on xag, and I am little nervous
Quoting magicgate
Could U open your mind at xag for this evening andthenext week, - low 30.81 is the lowest or may go down today?
I don't follow xag so I wouldn't be able to offer anything on that. Sorry.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting Ken A
You really do enjoy scaring people LOL

Who is selling gold? Hedge funds? It can't be of the dollar strength.

But Euro really looks like going to break 1.2800.
When you're scared, you buy gold.
When your very scared, you sell everything... including gold.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Well, pity I couldn't ride my short from 103.68 as I intended to as I was stopped out with the volatility. Nonethless, I hope I am not in wrong in seeing what is a potential HS on eurjpy formed and a possible break below the rising channel along with what is quite possibly a very bearish formation on the daily.

My thinking is to short this below 103 and targetting around 102.2 initially. Purely a trade what you see idea, feedback would be much appreciated.
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Quoting Unknownpips
Well, pity I couldn't ride my short from 103.68 as I intended to as I was stopped out with the volatility. Nonethless, I hope I am not in wrong in seeing what is a potential HS on eurjpy formed and a possible break below the rising channel along with what is quite possibly a very bearish formation on the daily.

My thinking is to short this below 103 and targetting around 102.2 initially. Purely a trade what you see idea, feedback would be much appreciated.
looks good to me.
Gl
TRADE FOR SWAP
good day. 2980 - 2848 or something.

have a nice weekend
Any prices quoted are futures
Quoting PipTrapper
When you're scared, you buy gold.
When your very scared, you sell everything... including gold.
Why would everybody be very scared? Is it due to the uncertainty of US elections? Trying to figure this out...
Quoting 100PipsADay
Why would everybody be very scared? Is it due to the uncertainty of US elections? Trying to figure this out...
No need to know the reason. Just need to know the condition. Look at equities and futures. They are all down on the day and the USD has gained against everything but the CAD.

Now if I had to take a guess at the "why", I would say that when you've got money invested in equities and commodities based on a promise of perpetual money printing rather than actual value, the slightest hint that the money printing may slow down or stop would make you very scared that your capital is at risk of shrinkage. So the answer is "Sell first, ask questions later". I would say that would probably be the main driver, but certainly the problems in Europe, the upcoming elections and the weekend G20 meetings are also contributing factors.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
No need to know the reason. Just need to know the condition. Look at equities and futures. They are all down on the day and the USD has gained against everything but the CAD.

Now if I had to take a guess at the "why", I would say that when you've got money invested in equities and commodities based on a promise of perpetual money printing rather than actual value, the slightest hint that the money printing may slow down or stop would make you very scared that your capital is at risk of shrinkage. So the answer is "Sell first, ask questions...
Hi PT still awake. If euro holds below 1.2890 we keep down...
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
hey guys, how it went for you today? got the pips on your pocket?.. i just saw Sky Fall (James Bond) i didn't like it.. what about you? already saw it?

I will post a report for the possible scenario after the NFP, as soon as my data is ready on the server! Have a nice weekend! and remember never quit at trading, if you try a 100000000000000 times everyday then 1 day everything will change....
  • Post #59,953
  • Quote
  • Edited Nov 3, 2012 3:38am Nov 2, 2012 11:56pm | Edited Nov 3, 2012 3:38am
Quoting cdndollar
Extracted
that being said.. I apologize to other members for my out-burst..
Now on to Euro & GBP pip hoarding business..

New month + London & New York Bears + Crosses Bears = M/T Trend Correction/Turn..
With the breach of the 2 months support, 1.35 will have to wait a bit longer as S/T focus now shifted down to the 1.2900~1.2700 traverse zone..

Inter-market Pictures
Cable weekly Sell Fractal with another failed test of the 2 month TL.. S/T bias for another probe down to the 1.5950~1.5850 support zone.. below, may see a fast multi-week flush down to the 1.54~1.54 M/T range lows..
GBPUSD + EURGBP, side to down = EURUSD side to down or fast down..

USDJPY stabilizing side to up 79.50~80.50 may buy some time for EURJPY.. However, a break below 79 again will be troublesome for EURJPY & EURUSD bulls..
USDJPY + EURJPY, side to down = EURUSD side to down or fast down.

GBPUSD + EURGBP + EURJPY side to down = EURUSD in trouble..

EURUSD D1+H4:
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Dollar Index vs EURUSD D1:
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Quoting cdndollar
Sold Cable here @1.6156..
limit short waiting @1.6176 with 50 pip stop for both..
1.6156 short stop @+68

Quoting cdndollar
Long USDJPY @79.45 risking 50 for 200+
79.45 long stop @+8

Have a nice w/e..
Quoting rekon67
One successful cycle closed.

Attachment 1071281
3,126 trades in 48 days Must be automated.
Quoting Ken A
3,126 trades in 48 days Must be automated.
You can say it semi-automated. Because I manually fire the script. As of now I am not hosting my programs in a dedicated server. Hopefully looking forward next year to have my own dedicated server for that.

So for now my custom script fires 100s of orders at a time and scale a range.

Only pair is E/U and lot starts from 0.01.

Sometime I keep the batch for half an hour to one hour, sometime more than 3 weeks.

I will explain my strategy once my program able to complete atleast 6 cycles consecutively.

Return >= 2 % p.m. on Equity is alright to me.
Quoting rekon67
You can say it semi-automated. Because I manually fire the script. As of now I am not hosting my programs in a dedicated server. Hopefully looking forward next year to have my own dedicated server for that.

So for now my custom script fires 100s of orders at a time and scale a range.

Only pair is E/U and lot starts from 0.01.

Sometime I keep the batch for half an hour to one hour, sometime more than 3 weeks.

I will explain my strategy once my program able to complete atleast 6 cycles consecutively.

Return >= 2 % p.m. on Equity...
Sounds like Martingale.

What you consider as one cycle completion?

I agree with low leverage is a gurantee to success in the long term. I am testing with high leverage 30-50 scalping manually in any open positions and so far with no success. I managed to grow over 1,000% but can not consistently maintain the rate without margin call.
Quoting Ken A
Sounds like Martingale.

What you consider as one cycle completion?

I agree with low leverage is a gurantee to success in the long term. I am testing with high leverage 30-50 scalping manually in any open positions and so far with no success. I managed to grow over 1,000% but can not consistently maintain the rate without margin call.
My definition of a complete cycle is a period of 40 to 49 days where you identify a trading direction on daily (could be a horizontal range / inclining range/ declining range ) and execute favourable orders. There is no need to do frequent trades or multiple trades, daily trades etc.

When your technical set-up matches you execute trade. You have a set of scripts which will allow you fire 100s of trades at a point and automatically close all or proportion at the specified profit level.

You are bias-free with the clear technicals and you execute 100s of small buy and sell on the pair. You have a specified profit target for the cycle so you lock automatically certain proportion of trades or close completely.

Since you are not going to get a good set-up everyday so manually you need to pick which set of orders you want to keep longer.

Each set of orders identified with different Magic Nos, so it is easy to manage the set.

Martingale theory may apply but a technical set-up is first. Therefore, you can do contra trades or same directional trades with higher lot if the technicals are good and your account free margin allows. However, it is optional.

On the otherhand, if your first batch of trades goes well and you get the profit target, with next technical set up you can use the higher lot.

As I said earlier, if we are in the Trading Profession, there are various theory you can test and try in demo or live where identifying a good technical set-up is must for intraday.

Later you have to reward the set-up you've identified with good Equity-enhancing techniques.

Your method must be stress-free therefore the cycle concept is helpful. If you able to find out 10 good set-ups within 40 days period and able to utilize atleast 5 in my opinion you are good for enhancing your equity atleast >=2% p.m.

Finally, this concept is more like a personal practice rather than an automated system. I will give it some more time and discuss / post the method and results.

Moral of the Story:

It is best to have 10 positions with 1 lot rather than 1 position with 1 lot.
Someone has been ditching euros over the weekend. Gapping down, at least on current quotes.

I've got a feeling this will be a gap that doesn't close.....
TRADE FOR SWAP
This report contains:

 

  1. Econometrics
  2. Order Flow (Not always)
  3. Technical
  4. Cyclical Fundamental

This report is intended for professional traders only.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 4.11.2012report.pdf   616 KB | 187 downloads
Gentleman i'm back refresh and ready for action after 3 weeks away.
I can also see i haven't missed much other than the USD/CAD and gold, the rest has been ranging sorry but boring for me.
PT, i will PM this week the details of what we spoke about last time as i do need your help.
Until then this is one of the thing i did while away and i was a lot hard than i thought.
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