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  • #361
  • Nov 1, 2012 12:41am Nov 1, 2012 12:41am
Tech continues to catch my attention at this phase, with the QQQ and SMH as my gauges. The state of the QQQ has been known to reflect the state of the high growing tech stocks, the QQQ is also the NASDAQ ETF, while the SMH reflects the Semiconductors industry both have been declining in recent times with the QQQ lagging behind the SPY (S&P500 ETF), IWM (Russells 2000 ETF) and DIA (Dow 30 ETF).

This decline has mostly been influenced by stock like FB, PCLN, APPL and GOOG. FB looks like it basing and consolidating after the battering it took, while PCLN looks like it formed a double bottom and GOOG looks like it has held support at $670. These 3 stocks look like they have withered the storm and if they can hold at these levels, they could eventually head higher. It is still too early to make predictions for AAPL as it just held the 200 SMA and also held at the declining channel support. Should AAPL bottom out here, the sector could head higher fast.

Other key stocks to look at in the sector include RIMM which I already discussed earlier, INTC which continues to fall while showing no signs of a bottom, IBM which continues to range in a huge base between $182.00 - $211.00 and MSFT which has failed to close below support at $28.30, if MSFT can hold here in the coming days then that should be positive.

The QQQ lagging and diverging behind the SPY, IWM and DIA could be seen as an opportunity to buy as long as these stocks continue to hold above their respective levels and head higher. Furthermore, if they fail to head higher they could drag the entire market down. Keeping an eye on these stocks will give you an indication of where the market wants to head to next.
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  • #362
  • Nov 3, 2012 1:10pm Nov 3, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting Skynet
that makes sense...i wont be surprised if we get a bounce at 27.50. of course, 26.00 will be preferred.

roro53 was discussing with me earlier...and we are both assessing the damage that sandy will probably have on the retail sector...not to sound evil/schradenfreude...but business is business...a NYSE stock in play: consolidated edison. there was [url="http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/10/29/thousands-without-power-before-sandy-makes-landfall/"]major...
after arrogantly retesting the 60.80 region, consolidated edison...ED has turned bearish in two consecutive days...now dancing with the support barrier at 59.20....will it break below or bounce up?

here is a video of ED plant explosion in new york.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAqYZ433TeQ

another suggestion i received was HOME DEPOT(HD) and LOEWS (L) stocks...since the reconstruction that will be needed after the sandy storm...also, the fact that their stores were raided by buyers pouring money looking for equipments and petrol cans, generators, etc...before, during, and after the storm.

one of the main equipment in extremely high demand was the blitz petrol cans...unfortunately, the company that makes the can is out of business.
otherwise, their stocks would be worth a look.

anyways, below is the chart of consolidated edison:
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #363
  • Nov 3, 2012 1:21pm Nov 3, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting split_unit
Epic collapse, 'the higher they go, the lower they fall' despite bullish earnings and a positive conference call, the stock continues to collapse. Something isn't right here, I do not know what it is 'yet' but I know enough that where there's smoke, there's fire. I will continue to watch this trade for day trading opportunities, stocks like these that trade intraday in one direction are usually easy to trade.
indeed. where there is smoke, there is fire.

this makes no sense to me either...took a quick look at their financials from morningstar....nothing bad. Even when you break down their growth and cash flow under the key ratio section(below the financials) it doesnt ring any alarm bells.

this is a classic case, why i cannot trade on fundamentals alone...(also, i cannot trade based on technicals alone either.)
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #364
  • Nov 3, 2012 1:44pm Nov 3, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting split_unit
Tech continues to catch my attention at this phase, with the QQQ and SMH as my gauges. The state of the QQQ has been known to reflect the state of the high growing tech stocks, the QQQ is also the NASDAQ ETF, while the SMH reflects the Semiconductors industry both have been declining in recent times with the QQQ lagging behind the SPY (S&P500 ETF), IWM (Russells 2000 ETF) and DIA (Dow 30 ETF).
i am begining to be more interested in the financials and the housing sector...since bernanke is very determined to inflate the crap out of the housing sector to produce faux low employment with the QE3 aka QE infinity.


Quoting split_unit
This decline has mostly been influenced by stock like FB, PCLN, APPL and GOOG. FB looks like it basing and consolidating after the battering it took, while PCLN looks like it formed a double bottom and GOOG looks like it has held support at $670.

GOOG recently missed earnings. FACEBOOK top echelons are dumping the stocks like rats fleeing a stinking ship. they obviously cannot wait for the moratorium on insider selling to expire before offloading serious cargo. PRICELINE? i dont know, man. the performance of priceline is linked to vacations/travels/fuel prices...this requires disposable income on the part of consumers....not sure this is the time for that given the state of the economy...priceline is not a chain of 1dollar stores(that sells almost everything for a dollar) --as such, best suited for a downturn economy. FAMILY DOLLAR STORES.



Quoting split_unit
These 3 stocks look like they have withered the storm and if they can hold at these levels, they could eventually head higher. It is still too early to make predictions for AAPL as it just held the 200 SMA and also held at the declining channel support. Should AAPL bottom out here, the sector could head higher fast.

I DONT know about AAPL either...they recent got rid of some top executives...management changes in a bad company = good sign....management re-shuffling in an otherwise good company = bad signs...the new IPAD is overpriced and tim cook needs time to properly fill steve jobs shoes...not even sure he is up to the task.


Quoting split_unit
Other key stocks to look at in the sector include RIMM which I already discussed earlier, INTC which continues to fall while showing no signs of a bottom, IBM which continues to range in a huge base between $182.00 - $211.00 and MSFT which has failed to close below support at $28.30, if MSFT can hold here in the coming days then that should be positive.

The QQQ lagging and diverging behind the SPY, IWM and DIA could be seen as an opportunity to buy as long as these stocks continue to hold above their respective levels and head higher. Furthermore,...
i see. i probably should do a write up of the financials and housing sector. XLF and (XHB, ITB, PKB)
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #365
  • Nov 3, 2012 2:08pm Nov 3, 2012 2:08pm
hey, split unit, what do you think of divident funds?

i am currently looking at one in particular: ave maria rising dividend fund.

Not just the yield...which is low...but the performance of the fund itself...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #366
  • Edited 4:20pm Nov 3, 2012 2:36pm | Edited 4:20pm
ones that i like their fundie and techie

i know the fundie of some of these may look bad at first blush...but what i look for is the TREND in fundie data....are things trending better and better....if negative...it is going from worst to worse to bad to good.....i focus a lot on cash flow, debt to equity, growth, and supporting macro view, catalyst, leading industry. This may sound strange, but the TREND of fundie data is a little bit more important to me than the actual fundie data... and most of the time, i ignore P/E ratios...

TREX. fundie,
WHR. fundie.
USG is another one.
HD ,
MHK,
AOS,
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #367
  • Nov 3, 2012 4:32pm Nov 3, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting Skynet
ones that i like their fundie and techie.....

LL,
APOG
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #368
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:14am Nov 4, 2012 8:14am
Quoting Skynet
after arrogantly retesting the 60.80 region, consolidated edison...ED has turned bearish in two consecutive days...now dancing with the support barrier at 59.20....will it break below or bounce up?

here is a video of ED plant explosion in new york.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAqYZ433TeQ

another suggestion i received was HOME DEPOT(HD) and LOEWS (L) stocks...since the reconstruction that will be needed after the sandy storm...also, the fact that their stores were raided by buyers pouring money looking for equipments and petrol cans,...

Indeed, the home builders should benefit from Sandy. As for ED, one more test of $59 and this could break down hard. A failure below this level might indicate things aren't as bad as expect, at least to me.
  • #369
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:17am Nov 4, 2012 8:17am
Quoting Skynet
indeed. where there is smoke, there is fire.

this makes no sense to me either...took a quick look at their financials from morningstar....nothing bad. Even when you break down their growth and cash flow under the key ratio section(below the financials) it doesnt ring any alarm bells.

this is a classic case, why i cannot trade on fundamentals...
As for this one, a bit of further research would have indicated that the company has only 1 product on the market! Fears that this thing might not sell for ever all of a sudden woke investors up it seems.
  • #370
  • Edited 8:57am Nov 4, 2012 8:27am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting split_unit
As for this one, a bit of further research would have indicated that the company has only 1 product on the market! Fears that this thing might not sell for ever all of a sudden woke investors up it seems.
hmmm...i dont know if that is a major factor...like i said to you in PM...my background is in biochemistry...and orphan drug status is a big money maker for companies that pursued and successfully get it rolling. in fact, the FDA created a strong anti-competitive environment for orphan drugs candidate. In fact, some big pharma will intentionally spin off a subsidiary to specifically focus on orphan drugs creation.

and one of the ways a small biotech company can generate ridiculous cash flows is to focus on orphan drug thereby limiting/eliminating competition...getting ridiculous government money for research...getting ridiculous patents protection...and getting themselves positioned to be acquired by big pharma companies.

i will need to dig deeper to know the story about ALXN.

Quoting split_unit
Indeed, the home builders should benefit from Sandy. As for ED, one more test of $59 and this could break down hard. A failure below this level might indicate things aren't as bad as expect, at least to me.
makes complete sense to me. right on the money.

Quoting split_unit
Yes man, the XLF (Financials ETF) looks like it wants to rip higher. The XOP (Oil & Gas ETF) also wants to head higher, and if these two sectors head higher together, it would probably mean that investors are betting on inflation in the coming period. This could be the beginning of something huge especially if the XLK (Technology ETF) decides to join the party.
i agree completely with you. also, middleeastern saber-rattling between isreal/iran...turkey and syria...and general unrest in the middle east are good for higher oil prices, in generally...add on top of that, hyper-inflated dollar that is getting even more inflated...i think bernanke wants to increase the size of the QE. More inflation.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #371
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:33am Nov 4, 2012 8:33am
Quoting Skynet
i am begining to be more interested in the financials and the housing sector...since bernanke is very determined to inflate the crap out of the housing sector to produce faux low employment with the QE3 aka QE infinity.





GOOG recently missed earnings. FACEBOOK top echelons are dumping the stocks like rats fleeing a stinking ship. they obviously cannot wait...
Yes man, the XLF (Financials ETF) looks like it wants to rip higher. The XOP (Oil & Gas ETF) also wants to head higher, and if these two sectors head higher together, it would probably mean that investors are betting on inflation in the coming period. This could be the beginning of something huge especially if the XLK (Technology ETF) decides to join the party.
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  • #372
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:41am Nov 4, 2012 8:41am
Quoting Skynet
hmmm...i dont know if that is a major factor...like i said to you in PM...my background is in biochemistry...and orphan drug status is a big money maker for companies that pursued and successfully get it rolling. in fact, the FDA created a strong anti-competitive environment for orphan drugs candidate. In fact, some big pharma will intentionally spin off a subsidiary to specifically focus on orphan drugs creation.

and one of the ways a small biotech company can generate...
Well further prudent analysis is required in order to better assess ALXN's situation. Biotech companies tend to be different from other industries with the FDA and all, with your specialization in the industry, I think you would be best suited to find the reason of this sudden collapse.

One of the reasons I can think of is that this decline might have no reason. The weekly chart does look like the company was pricing a growth to infinity, no major correction in a while. This decline could simply be a chain reaction to sudden selling by investors who bought early and now found it a good time to book profits. Sometimes the market doesn't make sense, and that 'could' be why ALXN went down. I certainly won't go near this stock, unless it was a daytrade, then again, biotech stocks aren't the best stocks to daytrade.
  • #373
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:44am Nov 4, 2012 8:44am
Quoting Skynet
hey, split unit, what do you think of divident funds?

i am currently looking at one in particular: ave maria rising dividend fund.

Not just the yield...which is low...but the performance of the fund itself...
I am pretty ignorant on dividend funds, not my arena am afraid. However, I am willing to learn about them
  • #374
  • Nov 4, 2012 9:32am Nov 4, 2012 9:32am
Quoting Skynet
ones that i like their fundie and techie

i know the fundie of some of these may look bad at first blush...but what i look for is the TREND in fundie data....are things trending better and better....if negative...it is going from worst to worse to bad to good.....i focus a lot on cash flow, debt to equity, growth, and supporting macro view, catalyst, leading industry. This may sound strange, but the TREND of fundie data is a little bit more important to me than the actual fundie data... and most of the time, i ignore P/E ratios...

TREX. fundie,...
I haven't followed these stocks and I dont know much about them, the few things I noticed when I glanced at them were that:

WHR looks very strong, I wouldn't feel to comfortable getting in at these levels, most of my entries are mostly timed with the industry, sector or index most of the time. I usually perform a top down analysis on the economy followed by a bottom up analysis on stocks.

AOS same as WHR, looks pretty strong but abit over extended for my taste.

USG is REALLY leveraged, 21 times debt to equity. Even if the company is considered a growth company, debt that high is a heavy burden. The toll can be seen in the net profit margin that declines as much as 6.9% which I would attribute mainly to interest payments.

APOG this stock I like, it has very nice fundamentals, gaped higher and has held its ground, nice growth in EPS. Stronger margins in the next Q results could set this stock on fire that's assuming it doesn't take off before then.

PEG nice growth in this stock, zero debt means that the stock has room to maneuver in difficult times. Margins aren't bad and could improve as the company grows.

As for me, I continue to follow RIMM. It has broken out above resistance at 8.50. At this stage, I remain on the sidelines watching how things develop. Should opportunities arise, I would pounce accordingly.
  • #375
  • Nov 4, 2012 10:26am Nov 4, 2012 10:26am
Quoting split_unit
I haven't followed these stocks and I dont know much about them, the few things I noticed when I glanced at them were that:

WHR looks very strong, I wouldn't feel to comfortable getting in at these levels, most of my entries are mostly timed with the industry, sector or index most of the time. I usually perform a top down analysis on the economy followed by a bottom up analysis on stocks.

AOS same as WHR, looks pretty strong but abit over extended for my taste.

USG is REALLY leveraged, 21 times debt to equity. Even if the company is considered...
thanks for the replies and analysis. YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT ON USG. when i read your statements about the debt, i was thinking: i included companies with serious debt? really? what is splitunit talking about?...then i quickly check in my morningstar. lo and behold! you are right. USG is fat with debt...we are talking increasingly, super-size, large arse debt to equity ratio...how i missed that is beyond me. i like my debt to equity ratio to be less than 1. thanks for pointing me in that direction.

my other issue with some of these stocks is the unfavourable comparison between accounts receivable + net income vs operation cash flow. that bothers me in some of them.

i know some of these stocks are overextended...i will enter at pullback...using my patented(lololol) 15mins channel/5mins bpc method...

split unit, how much value do you put on conference calls?

P.S. the one i am hoping to trade next week is AOS....a pullback into the 58.50 to 58.00 area will be good...i will be patiently waiting at 58.00 area...to implement my 15-5 entry approach.

AOS chart attached:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1351977632



Quote:
Originally Posted by split_unit http://images.forexfactory.net/buttons/viewpost.gif
.....
most of my entries are mostly timed with the industry, sector or index most of the time. I usually perform a top down analysis on the economy followed by a bottom up analysis on stocks.......


i am of the same opinion too...that is why if a person take a look at the ETF ranking performance here...you will see XHB and ITB in the TOP TEN. then...i will drill into the constitution of these ETFs...to look for stocks that are worth buying....if i am shorting, i will do the reverse(find the bottoms...then find stocks within them worth shorting.). Obviously, with my posts on CONSOLIDATED EDISON/sandy/QE3 effects on housing...you can see that i like a story/catalyst to be part of the picture....
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #376
  • Nov 4, 2012 11:55am Nov 4, 2012 11:55am
Quoting Skynet
thanks for the replies and analysis. YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT ON USG. when i read your statements about the debt, i was thinking: i included companies with serious debt? really? what is splitunit talking about?...then i quickly check in my morningstar. lo and behold! you are right. USG is fat with debt...we are talking increasingly, super-size, large arse debt to equity ratio...how i missed that is beyond me. i like my debt to equity ratio to be less than 1. thanks...
Your welcome, your bets on XHB are totally with order flow, with all the easing going on along with Sandy you have the strongest ally by your side, the Fed. Key to other readers of this thread, is that price leads fundamentals, beware of doing the opposite. Never ever hold on to a position because you solely believe it is 'supposed' to go up.

As for your question on conference calls, they do create volatility at times. Especially, if you have David Einhorn in the audience lol, check out what happened to Herbal . Conference calls aren't that important and are ignored by most equity traders most of the time, however, once in a while a catastrophe can occur during those calls making it prudent that you pay attention to conference calls, and how these calls affect price. If things start getting wild, run!
  • #377
  • Nov 4, 2012 12:04pm Nov 4, 2012 12:04pm
Btw I will take a look at your system tomorrow, pretty exhausted right now. Maybe I learn a couple of things
  • #378
  • Nov 4, 2012 6:38pm Nov 4, 2012 6:38pm
expected cost/damage of hurricane sandy is $60billion. Others says it is $50billion. The price of lumber is expected to spike.

we know how to play this info in the market.

-skynet

p.s. is there a nice insurance company with a solid exposure to hurrican sandy, so as to short her stock? hehehehe.



Quoting split_unit
Your welcome, your bets on XHB are totally with order flow, with all the easing going on along with Sandy you have the strongest ally by your side, the Fed. Key to other readers of this thread, is that price leads fundamentals, beware of doing the opposite. Never ever hold on to a position because you solely believe it is 'supposed' to go up.

As for your question on conference calls, they do create volatility at times. Especially, if you have David Einhorn in the audience lol, check out what happened to [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-einhorn-herbalife-2012-5"]Herbal...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #379
  • Nov 5, 2012 5:15am Nov 5, 2012 5:15am
Quoting Skynet
expected cost/damage of hurricane sandy is $60billion. Others says it is $50billion. The price of lumber is expected to spike.

we know how to play this info in the market.

-skynet

p.s. is there a nice insurance company...
Not 1 that I know of, I am sure there are ideas out there. If I come across one I will post it here.
  • #380
  • Nov 5, 2012 10:33am Nov 5, 2012 10:33am
Quoting Skynet
after arrogantly retesting the 60.80 region, consolidated edison...ED has turned bearish in two consecutive days...now dancing with the support barrier at 59.20....will it break below or bounce up?

here is a video of ED plant explosion in new york.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAqYZ433TeQ

another suggestion i received was HOME DEPOT(HD) and LOEWS (L) stocks...since the reconstruction that will be needed after the sandy storm...also, the fact that their stores were raided by buyers pouring money looking for equipments and petrol cans, generators,...
Quoting split_unit
Indeed, the home builders should benefit from Sandy. As for ED, one more test of $59 and this could break down hard. A failure below this level might indicate things aren't as bad as expect, at least to me.

well...update...still 3hours into the market open....ED is getting hammered...broke below $59 and now testing $58.00....roughly dropped 4% in 3 days....anyways, we will see how hard it falls more....if it retraces to touch $59.20 area, i will short it.

chart update attached:
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
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