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  • #713,921
  • Nov 3, 2012 7:12pm Nov 3, 2012 7:12pm
hello peoples anyone have any thoughts to eu & cable next week
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  • #713,922
  • Nov 3, 2012 7:16pm Nov 3, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
hello peoples anyone have any thoughts to eu & cable next week
kiwi ,

can it turn into h&s on cable
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s&h.gif Size: 35 KB
Mohan
  • #713,923
  • Nov 3, 2012 7:25pm Nov 3, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting mohan76
kiwi ,

can it turn into h&s on cable
hey bro Cable, remember post, last months close was so imprtant, It was very nice trade signal, probably best of all ladies, many trader were try long her, I post many charts & even suggest if want to long her or eu is better to not touch buy button and sit on hands
I have couple charts which prepared last month ready for nov open, I will little time to update fridays pa and will get you
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  • #713,924
  • Nov 3, 2012 7:40pm Nov 3, 2012 7:40pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
hello peoples anyone have any thoughts to eu & cable next week
With the breach of the 2 months support, looks like EURUSD 1.35 will have to wait a bit longer as S/T focus now shifted down to the 1.2900~1.2700 traverse zone..

GBPUSD daily Sell Fractal after another failed test at the 2 month TL.. S/T bias for another probe down to the 1.5950~1.5850 support zone..

EURGBP backing off from .8150 after another rejection.. looking for .79 again..

EURJPY 3rd rejection from weekly TL.. pausing above 103 defying gravity with USDJPY having another go at the L/T TL, another rejection & break below 80 again will be troublesome for EURJPY & EURUSD bulls..

GBPUSD + EURGBP + EURJPY, side to down PA = EURUSD in trouble..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro D1+H4 capture-20121103-004733.png Size: 107 KB



Dollar Index vs EURUSD
The USD Index & EURUSD converging at M/T cross road again from diametrically opposite ends..
Scenario 1:
USD Index & EURUSD cross & continue on their merry ways..
ie. Euro ---> 1.27~1.25 continue ---> 1.20
Scenario 2:
USD Index & EURUSD cross, over-shot then reverse..
ie. Euro ---> 1.27~1.25 reverse ---> 1.35

Both scenario offers very good betting odds for muti-figure follow through PA..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU DX capture-20121103-065930.png Size: 82 KB
  • #713,925
  • Nov 3, 2012 8:07pm Nov 3, 2012 8:07pm
Quoting cdndollar
With the breach of the 2 months support, looks like EURUSD 1.35 will have to wait a bit longer as S/T focus now shifted down to the 1.2900~1.2700 traverse zone..

GBPUSD daily Sell Fractal after another failed test at the 2 month TL.. S/T bias for another probe down to the 1.5950~1.5850 support zone..

EURGBP backing off from .8150 after another rejection.. looking for .79 again..

EURJPY 3rd rejection from weekly TL.. pausing above 103 defying gravity with USDJPY having another go at the L/T TL, another rejection & break below 80 again will...
yes I was watching similar eu ltl, my 4hr charts not as indepth as yours, but they painted similar picture, accordingly my monthly, weekly daily 1hr charts al look different,
this chart is primarily focused on the falling channel, presently pa has breached the tl as above, but her also has now tapped the ltl of the falling chanel, and did little rejection bounce coinside with weekly close, profit take

Next monday pa will be interesting, so I will be waiting a confirmation pattern either breach the ltl and previous 2 lows for bear continutation, or a bigger bounce to retest the breached rising lt which confuenced with the previous TB (triple bottom) ish if her fails, may watch the respective fibs, will like to defend the main utl of the falling channel,
charts is same tf just zoom in
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4hr 4 11 2012 a.jpg Size: 119 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4hr 4 11 2012 b.jpg Size: 127 KB
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  • #713,926
  • Nov 3, 2012 8:27pm Nov 3, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
yes I was watching similar eu ltl, my 4hr charts not as indepth as yours, but they painted similar picture, accordingly my monthly, weekly daily 1hr charts al look different,
this chart is primarily focused on the falling channel, presently pa has breached the tl as above, but her also has now tapped the ltl of the falling chanel, and did little rejection bounce coinside with weekly close, profit take

Next monday pa will be interesting, so I will be waiting a confirmation pattern either breach the ltl and previous 2 lows for bear continutation,...
We may see another bounce again in-front of 1.28.. but after taking out the 2 month old support IMHO the 1.28 "sand line" is now not as important as the previous 2 months.. the PA up at 1.2900~1.2870 zone will be very interesting should it retrace from here.. on the other hand, it may just follow through with Sidney Monday open gapping below 1.28
Good luck..
  • #713,927
  • Nov 3, 2012 9:06pm Nov 3, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting cdndollar
We may see another bounce again in-front of 1.28.. but after taking out the 2 month old support IMHO the 1.28 "sand line" is now not as important as the previous 2 months.. the PA up at 1.2900~1.2870 zone will be very interesting should it retrace from here.. on the other hand, it may just follow through with Sidney Monday open gapping below 1.28
Good luck..
hahaha yes gap below, actually I prefer gap up take out weak shorts, get buyer excited, then reverse down hard I will be do normal weekly open trade and sell open price, then wait daily zones to print then brit open and reassess

I am just doing daily & weekly cable charts
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  • #713,928
  • Nov 3, 2012 9:09pm Nov 3, 2012 9:09pm
Cable Daily

Thursday print beautiful Candle, fail to make new high sub reverse doji

Only run 2 fibs this chart, they show better merit 4hr and 1hr charts, I feel her the best respect fib 50 & 38 of all pairs, 2nd best 38 after eu

I did very nice with Friday Candle,

However on weekly the high shown is a new high by 8 pips, to put in context is from present bull rally of 1041 pips from 25th May low which also was a HL
again just last 2 fibs

For me if bears can make new low daily then achieve retrace 100%, weekly levels will come into play, presently the 50fib form april 2011 fall then the 38fib from present rally (she tapped 2 weeks ago)
then the confluence of the 50fib april fall & 38fib of present rally also area where 200 & 50 sma,s converging so if bear continue this will be area of interest me
But for now is daily LH versus Weekly HH (8 fuk pips) in play
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable Daily 4 11 2012.jpg Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable Weekly 4 11 2012.jpg Size: 103 KB
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  • #713,929
  • Nov 3, 2012 10:41pm Nov 3, 2012 10:41pm
Quoting mohan76
it's EA making this trade and its on demo , if you closely look into trade EA taking multiple trade @ same level to over state pips earn. his 2nd account might do trade on other site which might show +5000 pip profit and help him to scam.

the system he used is called grid/Martingale ,

i am also developing my own grid/Martingale system for automated trading , it will work as long as pair in rage, once it's brake bad luck , reducing damage is key

my current version draw down chart (in $) , as long as i can limit 10% lost to...
nice u can backtest this one im sure it will be close
to live results since ur limiting to 10% plz post backtest result once its ready?
  • #713,930
  • Nov 3, 2012 11:14pm Nov 3, 2012 11:14pm
man I hope the price action this week isn't as dull as this fight scene.

Inserted Video
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #713,931
  • Nov 3, 2012 11:17pm Nov 3, 2012 11:17pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
hahaha yes gap below, actually I prefer gap up take out weak shorts, get buyer excited, then reverse down hard I will be do normal weekly open trade and sell open price, then wait daily zones to print then brit open and reassess

I am just doing daily & weekly cable charts

IMHO weak shorts had capitulated & some may had flipped to long up @the 1.3's & underwater..
Friday's impulsive break looks more like a long squeeze.. over the short term, we may witness a series of "rinse & flush" PA as weak longs bail on blips & others buy on dips for 1.35 to average their underwater positions as the market slides towards 1.27~1.25..

here's my take for Cable..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP capture-20121104-030139.png Size: 86 KB
  • #713,932
  • Nov 4, 2012 1:40am Nov 4, 2012 1:40am
Quoting mohan76
the system he used is called grid/Martingale ,
I don't think he was using the EA - someone told him the idea , after he wrote a post deeming Forex and profitable trading and calling Forex traders either scammers or pretending to be profitable. Than - reflecting his low state of mind , he made a propasal in a thread asking for fund money to a friend of his in Swiss Land ...

I only said that to demonstrate that not using SL with low positioning is profitable not that profitable. ( Of course , it could take up to one year to get out of position )
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #713,933
  • Nov 4, 2012 1:01am Nov 4, 2012 1:01am
Quoting Tearlach
if you're not as big a coward as me, +100 pip take profit might be smarter -- the average of the nine winning trades (with <150 pip gains) is just over 99 pips, and five out of the nine were for 99 pips or greater

I should probably set a +50 stop when the price reaches +100
wow that is wonderful.. my oh my +100pip. how do you get it tearlach? do you have trik or special method for gain +100pip, like chose an perfect opening market ?
  • #713,934
  • Nov 4, 2012 1:30am Nov 4, 2012 1:30am
Quoting Vachus
I don't think he was using the EA - someone told him the idea , after he wrote a post deeming Forex and profitable trading and calling Forex traders either scammers or pretending to be profitable. Than - reflecting his low state of mind , he made a propasal in a thread asking for fund money to a friend of his in Swiss Land ...

I only said that to demonstrate that not using SL with low positioning is profitable not that profitable. ( Of course , it could take up to one year to get out of position )
Unless they were monitored, a demo trader (trying to sell a system), could very easily make tons of demos until one hit lol.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #713,935
  • Nov 4, 2012 2:21am Nov 4, 2012 2:21am
Quoting Vachus
I don't think he was using the EA - someone told him the idea , after he wrote a post deeming Forex and profitable trading and calling Forex traders either scammers or pretending to be profitable. Than - reflecting his low state of mind , he made a propasal in a thread asking for fund money to a friend of his in Swiss Land ...

I only said that to demonstrate that not using SL with low positioning is profitable not that profitable. ( Of course , it could take up to one year to get out of position )
I dont agree that this is a good way to trade.

Yes if your account is 50k and you trade 10k you dont need s/l. (That trade will never close your account)
You wait and you take your profit after 30 days or 4 years.

So yes you will get an assured profit. Not bad.

But the reward sucks. Is better to invest your money in a bank account and go for the interest rate.

the risk is minimum but the reward is also minimum.

You cant cheat the market.
  • #713,936
  • Nov 4, 2012 3:43am Nov 4, 2012 3:43am
[quote=trader_fx1;6160241]

But the reward sucks. Is better to invest your money in a bank account and go for the interest rate.
[quote]

lets say u have 50k in euro. if banks rate is 5% average per year, then in 4 years you have ~ 10k profits form bank's rate

So if you trade 25k long in e/u, you will need 4000 pips profits for a profit 10k of dollars (not euro). even more for a profit of 10k euro.

So lets say you go long at e/u at 1.28 support and you collect your profit at 1.30 res.

Great you have 200pips! You only miss 3800 pips for you 10k usd profits less that what banks give you in 4 years.

e/u go again at 1.28 and you do the same (buy at the support with no s/l).
At the end 1.20 is the long-term resistance. It will surely hold!

But lets say that it breaks 1.28 and you watch all the way to 1.20. Lets say it breaks 1.20 as it will be the 4th time to be tested since 2008 highs.

Then in best case scenario you will wait for 4 or 5 years for price to return back to 1.28.

it means you just lost 10k easy money from the bank rates in the case you have deposited there.

Yes, your trade never closed your account and you were never at risk from that trade, but you just lost 5 years and 10k.
  • #713,937
  • Edited 5:43am Nov 4, 2012 5:05am | Edited 5:43am
just wondering what time broker going to open this morning same as last week or 1h later , thank god this is last time change till winter
Mohan
  • #713,938
  • Nov 4, 2012 6:18am Nov 4, 2012 6:18am
Quoting Kenawee
(I am a beginner, so don't take me too seriously)

Why wouldn't you expect the price to bounce up at the support level (1.2832)?

Plus, isn't that a triangle? In that case, isn't it supposed to be a continuation pattern? i.e. more bullishness?

Thank you
I personally do not look for wedges like the one you have drawn, but I often trade them because I prefer to look for inside bars on monthly and weekly charts. When you zoom into a daily chart like EURUSD it looks like a wedge, but it is really just an inside bar on the higher timeframe. Another example of this is Gold monthly chart from August.

Fridays daily candle was extremely bearish with a close at the lows. The close is really the key that tells me we are going lower. If we would have closed a bit higher so that a wick formed on your support line, then there would still be a chance that it holds.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #713,939
  • Nov 4, 2012 7:22am Nov 4, 2012 7:22am
hello guys
any advice on eurusd up or down?
  • #713,940
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:15am Nov 4, 2012 8:15am
euro dollar outlook update

http://scrawlingcharts.blogspot.com/
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