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  • #3,921
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:12am Nov 2, 2012 9:12am
still holding the beast !!
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  • #3,922
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:14am Nov 2, 2012 9:14am
Good moves today. Hope everyone got a piece of the meat.

GBPUSD offered today 2 FTBs to position short ahead of NFP. I caught the 2nd one. The decision area can be clearly seen on M5.
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #3,923
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:31am Nov 2, 2012 10:31am
Quoting pex
LJ, could you go over GBP/CHF rbr (if I`m not mistaken)?
Did you take it or if not reason...?
thanks
I did take it, twice!

I got in when my Oanda feed spiked down and hit this area and went to my FLR - but no other feed came close to hitting this area so I got in again and took a loss for a net BE ish.

It was an impulsive move into this area and this is something I'd always be bearing in mind when assessing the setup and risk %
  • #3,924
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:32am Nov 2, 2012 10:32am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I think there isn't enough space on the FTB (no arc like move).
These wasn't on H4, but there was on M15, which was the TF I was playing it on.
  • #3,925
  • Nov 2, 2012 11:00am Nov 2, 2012 11:00am
Looks like everyone has been pretty busy over the last couple days, as was I. Plenty of opportunities all over the place...too many really.

Here are some of my trades from the last two days.



1. EU 5min FB and a deeper test of M15/30 demand together with TL confluence.

2. GCAD - reaction of supply and demand consumption signs.

3. EJ FB after hitting demand for the FTB

4. Some NFP based trades (GCAD and ECAD) - simple risk sentiment correlation based.
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  • #3,926
  • Nov 2, 2012 12:37pm Nov 2, 2012 12:37pm
LJ, you can hit "CTRL + H" in MT4 to show the pair name in the top left corner, if you didn't know that. It's easier to follow this way.

GL
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #3,927
  • Nov 2, 2012 12:41pm Nov 2, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I did take it, twice!

I got in when my Oanda feed spiked down and hit this area and went to my FLR - but no other feed came close to hitting this area so I got in again and took a loss for a net BE ish.

It was an impulsive move into this area and this is something I'd always be bearing in mind when assessing the setup and risk %
thanks for reply
can you upload charts with your entries,SL and exits
thanks again
  • #3,928
  • Nov 2, 2012 12:49pm Nov 2, 2012 12:49pm
eur,cad is on my radar but no chance for today as it seemes !!!have a nice week end
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  • #3,929
  • Nov 2, 2012 2:53pm Nov 2, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
LJ, you can hit "CTRL + H" in MT4 to show the pair name in the top left corner, if you didn't know that. It's easier to follow this way.

GL
I did not know that . Thanks for the tip ...
Human
  • #3,930
  • Nov 4, 2012 6:17am Nov 4, 2012 6:17am
What do you guys think of this? Is my analysis correct? How would you play it if so? Entry on the bottom of the Supply zone and SL above the high of it?

Really appreciate it!

Daily:

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Hourly:

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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #3,931
  • Nov 4, 2012 6:21am Nov 4, 2012 6:21am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
What do you guys think of this? Is my analysis correct? How would you play it if so? Entry on the bottom of the Supply zone and SL above the high of it?

Really appreciate it!

Daily:

Attachment

Hourly:

Attachment
How do you learn things so fast ?
Human
  • #3,932
  • Nov 4, 2012 10:05am Nov 4, 2012 10:05am
Can someone help me? How do you draw the Supply zone in this case and why? Thank you!

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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #3,933
  • Nov 4, 2012 1:20pm Nov 4, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting pex
thanks for reply
can you upload charts with your entries,SL and exits
thanks again
I didn't take this on an MT4 enabled broker so don't have that available but the arrows below show where my entry, SL and targets were based on (M15 TF chart).
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  • #3,934
  • Nov 4, 2012 1:25pm Nov 4, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
What do you guys think of this? Is my analysis correct? How would you play it if so? Entry on the bottom of the Supply zone and SL above the high of it?

Really appreciate it!

Daily:

Attachment

Hourly:

Attachment
My entry would be based slightly lower at the DP marked - zoom in and it should be clear why.

But you are definitely thinking about things in the right way - finding the cause of the breakout on a lower TF. That's how you trade the daily breakout levels.
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  • #3,935
  • Nov 4, 2012 1:30pm Nov 4, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Can someone help me? How do you draw the Supply zone in this case and why? Thank you!

Attachment
People often get hung up how to draw SR levels and SD zones. I get questions all the time, usually along the lines of do I use bar closes, bar highs etc.

The only thing that you should be looking at are decision points - they are the only thing that matters when marking an SD or SR zone and it's all I focus on when marking up my charts - I use a rectangle to 'highlight' the rough zone (which extends from the source of the supply / demand to the decision point that defined the edge) but it's all about the DP's.

One of my website videos covers this exact subject...

Price action trading is all about using objective logic and it's not a 'system', for example I've come across people who will define an SR level as the average between a bar high and bar low within the overall zone...a classic example of an illogical approach for lazy system minded traders.

If you let me know the pair and TF I'll take a closer look (I like to review my own charts rather than someone else's).
  • #3,936
  • Nov 4, 2012 1:36pm Nov 4, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting lovejoy80
People often get hung up how to draw SR levels and SD zones. I get questions all the time, usually along the lines of do I use bar closes, bar highs etc.

The only thing that you should be looking at are decision points - they are the only thing that matters when marking an SD or SR zone and it's all I focus on when marking up my charts - I use a rectangle to 'highlight' the rough zone (which extends from the source of the supply / demand to the decision point that defined the edge) but it's all about the DP's.

One of my website videos...
Hey man. Thanks again for your explanation. My problem i think is I don't know what the DP (decision point) is. Can you post a chart about it? Thanks!

Quote
use a rectangle to 'highlight' the rough zone (which extends from the source of the supply / demand to the decision point that defined the edge)
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #3,937
  • Nov 4, 2012 2:00pm Nov 4, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting goldfish3
Hi LJ,

I have a question. Pardon if this might be novice but then I am a novice trader.

When you talk about order flow dynamics, you talk about it being the 'appreciation for market participants at specific levels and clustered/accumulated orders'. Now I understand that order flow is dynamic, meaning it will keep on changing depending on the new information entering the market and the subsequent changes in trader sentiment.

So in a nutshell my question is this. If lets say we have identified an area which is most likely to have a cluster...
1. Price only slips when the market is highly illiquid - major news events are an example of this.

2. I don't have a chart to hand so can't recall the trade - but yes sometimes price will react with a firm good momentum rejection and indeed a good % of the time it does (and we always like it when that happens), but there are times when price still holds the area we are trading away from but just doesn't move with this good momentum.

This could be for a number of reasons...the SD imbalance not being as strong as it was (you mentioned order flow being dynamic and not static which explains why this can be the case). supply above (if trading a long) being strong and thus this needs to be cleared / consumed first etc.

3. In short they don't - someone who has a very large order to fill will try and get filled at areas of high liquidity and/or split their orders into parts so they average in.
  • #3,938
  • Nov 4, 2012 2:02pm Nov 4, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey man. Thanks again for your explanation. My problem i think is I don't know what the DP (decision point) is. Can you post a chart about it? Thanks!
A DP is just where a decision was made to break lower / higher. So in essence the supply / demand (and thus SR's) within the zone that price had to break in order to move higher / lower.

Find these areas that have not been retested (an immediate retest does not count) for which price broke with good momentum and you have a DP. I'm looking for the ones that are clear and concise.
  • #3,939
  • Nov 4, 2012 2:09pm Nov 4, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey man. Thanks again for your explanation. My problem i think is I don't know what the DP (decision point) is. Can you post a chart about it? Thanks!
Check LJ's videos if you havent done yet. Its all there.

Very valuable information presented in a no-bullshit manner.
Thoughts are things
  • #3,940
  • Nov 4, 2012 2:12pm Nov 4, 2012 2:12pm
LJ , I am having trouble logging in the Website . It says to many IP's are trying to access one area , try contacting support for assistance . Its been like this for a week now . Do you know what is wrong ?
Regards
Human
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