EurAnalysis

Good morning all.am i the only one thinking differently?everything looks overbought,i want to buy..the ninjas a playing a funny game here

E/U Down we go. If this H/S does not fail, 1.2650/60 is the next target

E/U H4:


USDX Up we go. If this Inverted H/S does not fail, 81.80/82.00 is the next target.

USDX Daily:

your welcome dude. Nice thread you got here.. ,,

Thanks Gino. I'm glad you like it and equally glad for your valuable contributions.
Many green pips to you.

G'Morning FXCode. Why would you want to buy if everything looks overbought?

Thankz for the link it helps me a lot with my studies.

Have great day,

Good morning all and happy Friday.

It's not an ordinary Friday. It's NFP Friday. This is the first Friday of the month where the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) releases its Non-Farm payroll report for the previous month (October)... the most anticipated leading indicator of economic health in the US. The consensus expected headline figure for today's NFP is +123K versus +114K from September. As I have always mentioned in the past, the best pair to trade for this news is the USD/JPY (Buy on better number & sell on worse number). However, that does not mean we cannot trade the EUR/USD. The only issue with the EUR/USD is that the direction is not as predictable as the USD/JPY due to other factors at play in the markets. See, the USD and the JPY are both used as safe havens and attract bids during times of risk-off sentiment. With the Euro being considered a risk asset, a better than expected NFP number tends to increase trader and investor risk appetite. With increased risk appetite, capital usually flows from safe havens to risk assets and as such the logical assumption would be a bullish EUR/USD (Or a bearish EUR/USD in a risk-off environment). This time may be different though as it seems that the US economy may be leading the global recovery. Add to that the fact that the USD has taken quite a beating lately due to the Fed's Q-Eternity program, and one can easily come to the logical conclusion that the USD is at cyclical lows and stands to gain from a positive NFP report (or lose from a negative one). This is further supported by the market's anticipation of further QE from the Fed. If employment in the US does not show much promise, then the Fed is likely to ease more. Alternatively, if the employment picture seems to be improving, then the Fed is less likely to ease more and in fact becomes more likely to withdraw some of it's monetary easing earlier than expected. Therefore, this time, also taking into consideration that the market is very nervous about the situations in Greece and Spain, a positive better than expected NFP number might very well be EUR/USD negative. At a minimum, any move to the upside will be sold into very quickly thereby capping any advances. In the case of a negative NFP number (less than consensus expectations) will be USD negative against the JPY, but due to risk aversion safe haven seeking, should also be EUR/USD negative or neutral. Based on that logic, the safe play in this pair is short EUR/USD on rallies no matter what the number is. However, I would not be too quick to jump in short after the release but rather wait for a rally and sell into its exhaustion.

The economic calendar this morning has some other Euro event risks on it. These include the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI reports and will likely sway the Euro one way or the other during the European session. However, the real mover will come from the NFP.

Technically, we are still in the dreaded 1.3172 to 1.2802 stubborn range we've been locked in since mid September. However, this morning I found some light shining on a very possible breakout to the downside in the form of a Head & Shoulders formation visible on the H4 and daily charts. With a head high of 1.3138 and a neckline breakout to the downside at 1.2898, the target is theoretically 240 pips below the breakout. That should put us down below the range low of 1.2802 all the way down at 1.2658. Of course it could fail before breakout, but if we do get a break below the neckline, there is an extremely high probability that the move will play out. Keep in mind though that we will still probably face a challenge at the 1.2802 range low.

Best of luck today and many green pips to you all.

Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2925/35 possible buy stops through 1.2950 ahead of offers 1.2980/00. More offers above at 1.3010/20 suggested buy stops through 1.3025. Bids 1.2880/00 (sovereigns, option related ahead of 1.2880 p/o a DNT) sell stops through 1.2875 ahead of tech supp 55/ 200 day MA’s at 1.2849 (sell stops below ) and 1.2832 respectively.

Today's Euro FX Option Expiries @ 14:00 GMT:

EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100

E/U H4:


E/U Weekly:


USDX Daily:

was trying to be smarter than my self(fading the move). guess i have to quit that sucide mission.

PT are we gonna have our usual game today?

LOL. In my opinion, long Euro positions for anything other than intraday scalps is akin to playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded revolver.

http://www.gamesnepal.com/games/russian-roulette.jpg

Yes we will. I will start it 1 hour before release and stop it 10 minutes before release.

DNT 1.2880?

R for USDollar...I hope it breaks today...

"market talks"1.2880/1.3040
for me just a head-up alert

I'd be surprised if we head lower today, technicals really sort of pointing the other way, but just a different perspective here from me to balance out the guesswork.

That's only a tiny order for me, since we didn't make a new high earlier in the week I'm not certain about it all



An update from this post:

ATM we are 20 pips from last weeks lows and 40 pips from Daily triangle line so really - anything can happen here. As for the technicals - longer we will range here (2904-2880) the higher probability that it will burst down - it is almost ideal 80 pips distance to the final support for a fake-jerk reaction IF real intentions are to go higher...

Italian Manufacturing PMI down to 45.5 vs 45.9 expected vs 45.7 prior
Spanish Manufacturing PMI down to 43.5 vs 44.5 prior

I double checked my chart again and seems my higher TFs H4,H1 are oversold.Except for NFP(any thing goes) we should see an Up
"but dont ask me when"

Yeah, as I say since we didn't make a new high I'm not over confident, but a flag break and re-test is normally fairly high probability.

I think we are treading water until the election, so a tightening range until then - just my guess - but as you say, from here anything can happen.