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EurAnalysis

  • #59,781
  • Nov 1, 2012 9:54am Nov 1, 2012 9:54am
Quoting godrich
question time

obama wins, what happens to dollar ?

romney wins, what happens to dollar ?


i have read up on this and opinions seem to be somewhat conflicting, so i thought lets see what the gang has to say.

any input would be appreciated.

i covered that earlier.

Romney - traders fear of reduced stimulus (doesn't matter whether it's justified) - make your own conclusions.

Obama - nothing really changes, focus will be back on the FED and eurozone
  • #59,782
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:00am Nov 1, 2012 10:00am
Quoting Ken A
I think he is interested in as to why dollar bullish at the same time equities and commodity currencies (and Euro sliding) which is unusual in Risk-On environment.
As i said, risk on lifts HIGH YIELDERS aka AUD and to a lesser extent CAD. Look at those markets and you can see that the dollar against THEM is DOWN.

EUR and GBP are more similar to the USD fundamentally, so the correlation is weak. Other things matter. Risk-on also induces selloff in EURAUD which has an impact in the EURUSD market which makes it more hard to rise.

There's a difference between Risk-on and risk-on. Question is WHO delivered that sentiment - U.S. or eurozone or smth else.
  • #59,783
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:13am Nov 1, 2012 10:13am
Quoting lumesh
As i said, risk on lifts HIGH YIELDERS aka AUD and to a lesser extent CAD. Look at those markets and you can see that the dollar against THEM is DOWN.

EUR and GBP are more similar to the USD fundamentally, so the correlation is weak. Other things matter. Risk-on also induces selloff in EURAUD which has an impact in the EURUSD market which makes it more hard to rise.

There's a difference between Risk-on and risk-on. Question is WHO delivered that sentiment - U.S. or eurozone or smth else.
What's the difference between Risk-on and risk-on?
  • #59,784
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:19am Nov 1, 2012 10:19am
Quoting cgldsmth
beautiful dark cloud has just covered my town, and a beautiful DCC is forming on H4 EURUSD also. I am more bearish on euro than ever....
  • #59,785
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:28am Nov 1, 2012 10:28am
rekon67,

any thoughts on my obama/romney dollar effect question ?

i would be interested in your opinion, as well as the opinion of some of the other knowledgeable guys/gals here.

thanks
  • #59,786
  • Nov 1, 2012 11:28am Nov 1, 2012 11:28am
Quoting godrich
question time

obama wins, what happens to dollar ?

romney wins, what happens to dollar ?


i have read up on this and opinions seem to be somewhat conflicting, so i thought lets see what the gang has to say.

any input would be appreciated.
I wrote on some of this earlier. Here are the links:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post6135519

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post6144462

I have attached trades of week that are partial closes on some with part placed at BE+ after removing majority of profit in first attachment.

I also have attached what I have left open today other than 3 small USD/CAD longs underwater and 3 small EUR/USD shorts underwater in second attachment.

It was easier on my brain to do this way. I can't remember everything on so many pairs
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  • #59,787
  • Nov 1, 2012 12:06pm Nov 1, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting lumesh
There's a difference between Risk-on and risk-on. Question is WHO delivered that sentiment - U.S. or eurozone or smth else.

thats the point. eur down, 30y down, stocks up, aud up. your explanation doesnt substantiate your claim unless i'm misreading you
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #59,788
  • Nov 1, 2012 12:08pm Nov 1, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting godrich
rekon67,

any thoughts on my obama/romney dollar effect question ?

i would be interested in your opinion, as well as the opinion of some of the other knowledgeable guys/gals here.

thanks
romney -> strong dollar, rate increase, bond selloff imo
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #59,789
  • Nov 1, 2012 12:30pm Nov 1, 2012 12:30pm
the DCC became a nice H4 bearish engulfing.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #59,790
  • Nov 1, 2012 12:43pm Nov 1, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting redteamgo
thats the point. eur down, 30y down, stocks up, aud up. your explanation doesnt substantiate your claim unless i'm misreading you
eeerrr...i don't understand what you don't understand

Bottomline is, EUR does NOT have to be up just because stocks are up (what we consider "risk-on"). And i already explained why.
  • #59,791
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:00pm Nov 1, 2012 1:00pm
Red,

I forgot to add if you look at dollar index bullish during Euro sell-off (due to the news about Greece) is because Euro is the most weighted currency on the dollar around 50%. So a slight movement on the Euro will be reflected on the Dollar Index. Sell Euro and buy Dollar and bonds were bought - yields down.

During the sell-off, market sentiment was in Risk-On in US as seen in Equities and commodities Crude, Gold, etc. The dollar bullish was due to the Euro sell-off and it didn't affect AUD. But AUD was bullish 1.0410 at that time, I speculated big players were buying it up to short at higher price anticipating RBA rate cut.
  • #59,792
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:14pm Nov 1, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
I wrote on some of this earlier. Here are the links:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post6135519

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post6144462

I have attached trades of week that are partial closes on some with part placed at BE+ after removing majority of profit in first attachment.

I also have attached what I have left open today other than 3 small USD/CAD longs underwater and 3 small EUR/USD shorts underwater in second attachment.

It was easier on my brain to do this...
Crude inventory -2.0M jumped to $87 and U/CAD drop almost -50 pips
  • #59,793
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:25pm Nov 1, 2012 1:25pm
yes you are right there. There is a chance for euro to go up when equities are up but not always. What you can extract from intermarket analysis forgetting about the abstract concept of Risk Off/On, is that equities-bonds-commodities-currencies tend to rally together but not at the same time but by phases. What i mean by is like april-may 2012. First bonds broke trendline, then commodities, then equities-> euro. So by this you got 3 major forces pulling down the euro (Pulling up the usd).

Quoting lumesh
eeerrr...i don't understand what you don't understand

Bottomline is, EUR does NOT have to be up just because stocks are up (what we consider "risk-on"). And i already explained why.
  • #59,794
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:36pm Nov 1, 2012 1:36pm
Today i found this link. this page contains a lot of historical data with fundies for a lot of countries. This is intended for those who really analyze fundamental behavior with technical, quant, econometric, statistics or whatever analysis. With this i mean you can extract more information from the fundis than people usually do, with time series analysis tools.

This information is for free and easy to download with .xls format

http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?que...queryname=221#
  • #59,795
  • Nov 1, 2012 2:31pm Nov 1, 2012 2:31pm
Hi friends
we are stil short bias ..
nothing said long...

cheers
aligater
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born to speculate
  • #59,796
  • Nov 1, 2012 3:57pm Nov 1, 2012 3:57pm
Euro dollar will continue down.

www.scrawlingcharts.blogspot.com
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #59,797
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:29pm Nov 1, 2012 5:29pm
Quoting godrich
rekon67,

any thoughts on my obama/romney dollar effect question ?

i would be interested in your opinion, as well as the opinion of some of the other knowledgeable guys/gals here.

thanks
Before election, effects are already started, market is pretty volatile and operating in quite a big range. Therefore, technically we are approaching for a break-out.

Now, in which way? obama elects or romney, I would say dollar index remains above 70 and approaches higher.

As I only rely upon my technicals so I will be placing my trades based on best technical set-ups for intraday / weekly.

  • #59,798
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:44pm Nov 1, 2012 6:44pm
Quoting lumesh
eeerrr...i don't understand what you don't understand

Bottomline is, EUR does NOT have to be up just because stocks are up (what we consider "risk-on"). And i already explained why.
that is true, when money is coming into risky assets for higher yield usually the USD is affected as there is LESS demand for US treasuries, cash, and other USD derivatives....this effect drives other currencies accordingly...however it is not a rule that the EUR will go up because the USD went down...there may be individual drivers working against this correlation.

EURUSD and S&P 500 index have a correlation of .69 risk-on is an indicator not a rule of thumb, I can tell you that if the S&P 500 index is up then with certainty the SPY will be up EVERY TIME, their correlation is 1 not so for the Euro.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #59,799
  • Nov 1, 2012 8:58pm Nov 1, 2012 8:58pm
This report contains:

 

  1. Statistical and Econometric Analysis based on fundamental cycles
  2. Intermarket Analysis: Currencies, Equities, Bonds and Commodities
  3. Technical Analysis: Classic trendlines, MACD, PA.

Hope this helps..

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf majorreportbeforeNFP1.11.12.pdf   653 KB | 257 downloads
  • #59,800
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:20pm Nov 1, 2012 10:20pm
Quoting gino32
This report contains:

 

  1. Statistical and Econometric Analysis based on fundamental cycles
  2. Intermarket Analysis: Currencies, Equities, Bonds and Commodities
  3. Technical Analysis: Classic trendlines, MACD, PA.

Hope this helps..

Thank you Gino... Very valuable information
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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