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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #59,741
  • Nov 1, 2012 4:51am Nov 1, 2012 4:51am
Quoting cdndollar
not "extremely good or better than most".. but good..
no more freebies for you.. Kido
I can't wait to grow up
  • #59,742
  • Nov 1, 2012 4:53am Nov 1, 2012 4:53am
Here's a freebie... for all the mavericks..possible long for a min 17 pips...
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Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #59,743
  • Nov 1, 2012 4:54am Nov 1, 2012 4:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
Be nice Red.
i covered yesterday during NY and i'm crabby :|
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #59,744
  • Nov 1, 2012 4:57am Nov 1, 2012 4:57am
Quoting ohenry
Here's a freebie... for all the mavericks..possible long for a min 17 pips...
p.s if she ranges around here till 12h30 (GMT+2)..she's just catching her breath before continuing south...
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #59,745
  • Nov 1, 2012 4:59am Nov 1, 2012 4:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
The official US NFP and US GDP
Oh OK, so you don't trade U/J for ADP then... Gotcha!

Thanks for the response PT. I need to look up the difference between ADP and Official NFP.
  • #59,746
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:02am Nov 1, 2012 5:02am
Looking for H1 close above 2940 for up and below 2926 for down.
And it closed in the midle of nowhere.. SO looking for m15 and m30 and with some momentum please...

Last H1 closed just above last hours low and formed wick just not long enough to make it a rejection-look-alike (less than 50%) - so kind of neautral..
69
  • #59,747
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:16am Nov 1, 2012 5:16am
OT... but bloomberg keeps rambling about tropical storm Sandy. $30bln in damages. hurricane andrew, a cat 5 in 1992, cost $25bln in 1992 dollars. whats wrong with this comparison? i bet a certain, small, favored group of people are getting ENORMOUSLY wealthy off this disaster. NY is such a cesspool
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #59,748
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:19am Nov 1, 2012 5:19am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Oh OK, so you don't trade U/J for ADP then... Gotcha!

Thanks for the response PT. I need to look up the difference between ADP and Official NFP.
ADP is a survey of private sector employment only.
The BLS (Bureau of Labour Statistics) official NFP includes private and public sector employment.

So If the government lays off 10,000 employees, that change is not reflected in the ADP numbers. Now speaking of government layoffs, those who are laid off do not usually apply for jobless benefits because they get long drawn out severance pay for 12 or more months and probably get rehired before the severance runs out, so they don't really count anyway. However, such is the market that it places a lot more importance on the official numbers... which in my opinion don't even come close to reflecting the reality of the employment picture in the US
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #59,749
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:24am Nov 1, 2012 5:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
ADP is a survey of private sector employment only.
The BLS (Bureau of Labour Statistics) official NFP includes private and public sector employment.
As far as I know the ADP number is not a survey.
You're right about only private sector but their number comes from printed W-2's.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #59,750
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:36am Nov 1, 2012 5:36am
Quoting KillerWhale
As far as I know the ADP number is not a survey.
You're right about only private sector but their number comes from printed W-2's.
In which case, it should be more accurate.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #59,751
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:46am Nov 1, 2012 5:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
In which case, it should be more accurate.
Yes, they do payroll for 16% of all W-2 workers in USA (private sector only)
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #59,752
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:51am Nov 1, 2012 5:51am
Quoting lumesh
In fact, cable has no idea what it's doing ...fundamentally anyway...

and today is the proof of that
  • #59,753
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:54am Nov 1, 2012 5:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
ADP is a survey of private sector employment only.
The BLS (Bureau of Labour Statistics) official NFP includes private and public sector employment.

So If the government lays off 10,000 employees, that change is not reflected in the ADP numbers. Now speaking of government layoffs, those who are laid off do not usually apply for jobless benefits because they get long drawn out severance pay for 12 or more months and probably get rehired before the severance runs out, so they don't really count anyway. However, such is the market that it places...
Very interesting...

You're right though when saying that the report doesn't even come close to reflecting the reality of the employment picture in the US. But as we all know, the reported figures is what the market prices in.

Last question which is not really as important: Why don't they just include the Farm payroll jobs as well? Why exclude them in the first place?

Thanks for your help PT.
  • #59,754
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:04am Nov 1, 2012 6:04am
we still got room down.Play safe!
Life is beautiful the way you dress it.
  • #59,755
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:18am Nov 1, 2012 6:18am
Quoting lumesh
and today is the proof of that
Hi Lumesh,

I don't trade too often using fundamentals but the technicals were pretty spot on in regards to GBP/USD.

Take a look at the D1 chart. It closed above the recent Daily down trend with yesterday's close.

Next stop for Cable is 1.63 which is major resistance on the Weekly / Monthly charts.
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  • #59,756
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:49am Nov 1, 2012 6:49am
i think euro should rally up
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Learning Requires Failure
  • #59,757
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:55am Nov 1, 2012 6:55am
Quoting ohenry
Beautiful 15min H&S break...high ho high ho it's off 2900 we go...
Out @ BE.....back to 3000 we go...
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #59,758
  • Nov 1, 2012 7:08am Nov 1, 2012 7:08am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Very interesting...

You're right though when saying that the report doesn't even come close to reflecting the reality of the employment picture in the US. But as we all know, the reported figures is what the market prices in.

Last question which is not really as important: Why don't they just include the Farm payroll jobs as well? Why exclude them in the first place?

Thanks for your help PT.
Simple. Farm payroll is usually casual, seasonal, highly volatile and not very indicative of economic health. In the worst of economic recessions, people still have to eat, so farms still have to produce and therefore they still need to hire help.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #59,759
  • Nov 1, 2012 7:11am Nov 1, 2012 7:11am
seems ADP would have a significant impact,PA is confused
Life is beautiful the way you dress it.
  • #59,760
  • Nov 1, 2012 7:22am Nov 1, 2012 7:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
Simple. Farm payroll is usually casual, seasonal, highly volatile and not very indicative of economic health. In the worst of economic recessions, people still have to eat, so farms still have to produce and therefore they still need to hire help.
I see, makes sense. Thanks bro.
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