bad weather.
- #59,541
- Oct 31, 2012 1:04am Oct 31, 2012 1:04am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #59,542
- Oct 31, 2012 2:07am Oct 31, 2012 2:07am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #59,543
- Oct 31, 2012 2:12am Oct 31, 2012 2:12am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: A M S | 1,019 Posts
finding A M S
- #59,544
- Oct 31, 2012 2:17am Oct 31, 2012 2:17am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #59,545
- Oct 31, 2012 2:18am Oct 31, 2012 2:18am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning everyone.
Before I get started today, I want to extend my deepest sympathies to those who have lost loved ones to Hurricane Sandy. I also wish to take a moment to pray for those who have survived this terrible storm that has devastated much of the North East coast of the United States. My thoughts are with all of you and I hope you come out of this mess stronger and wiser. God bless you all.
So, what's on tap for today? Considering that the US markets have been closed since Friday afternoon, plus the fact that today in Month End, I expect to see some major volatility once the NY opening bell rings. Month End flows usually start a couple of days before the actual end of month, although to a lesser degree. However, since the markets have been closed, this month end is going to come with full impact. In essence, we're going to get three days of market volume in one. So, buckle your seat belts and hang on. I wouldn't even bother taking any notice to the economic calendar today, but that's just me. There's no high impact news today anyway, so it's just as well. Of course Friday is a different story as we will get the final NFP report before the US presidential elections.
Which way do we go? I have no clue which way you want to go, but my mid term outlook is still extremely bearish with my sights still set on and below the July lows at 1.2041. Therefore I plan to keep playing the same strategy I have been using since we entered this long consolidation phase in Mid September and that is to sell into exhausted intraday rallies, take partial profits on significant retrace, and let the rest ride with a stop loss at break even. It's worked extremely well for me despite the fact that the market has gone absolutely nowhere in the last six weeks. Since 15th September, I have opened and closed many short positions as well as a few intraday longs for anywhere between 10 and 200 pips profit at a time. I also still have some of those short positions running from 1.3133, 1.3078, 1.3005, 1.2989 and 1.2982 (give or take a couple of pipettes).
Today I am directionless. All I anticipate is major volatility with whipsaw action in both directions. Most likely the US markets will start off with a rally, but then end with a rout with the SP500 taking a dip into the mid to high 13xx zone driving the USD higher and more than likely, the Euro lower. As such, I may just sit on my hands until I see an opportunity to set up yet another short position on the E/U pair should price decide to rally into exhaustive highs for the day. Otherwise, I'm quite happy with my current short positions.
Best of luck today and remember that leverage kills.
Pete Jackson's Order Board:
EUR/USD: Offers 1.2980 up to 1.3010, expected buy stops just above through 1.3015. Bids 1.2920/30 sell stops below ahead of larger bids 1.2880/00 (sovereigns) sell stops through 1.2875
Today's Euro FX Option Expiries at 14:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.2870, 1.2875, 1.2900, 1.2910, 1.2940, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050
E/U H1:
E/U Weekly:
Before I get started today, I want to extend my deepest sympathies to those who have lost loved ones to Hurricane Sandy. I also wish to take a moment to pray for those who have survived this terrible storm that has devastated much of the North East coast of the United States. My thoughts are with all of you and I hope you come out of this mess stronger and wiser. God bless you all.
So, what's on tap for today? Considering that the US markets have been closed since Friday afternoon, plus the fact that today in Month End, I expect to see some major volatility once the NY opening bell rings. Month End flows usually start a couple of days before the actual end of month, although to a lesser degree. However, since the markets have been closed, this month end is going to come with full impact. In essence, we're going to get three days of market volume in one. So, buckle your seat belts and hang on. I wouldn't even bother taking any notice to the economic calendar today, but that's just me. There's no high impact news today anyway, so it's just as well. Of course Friday is a different story as we will get the final NFP report before the US presidential elections.
Which way do we go? I have no clue which way you want to go, but my mid term outlook is still extremely bearish with my sights still set on and below the July lows at 1.2041. Therefore I plan to keep playing the same strategy I have been using since we entered this long consolidation phase in Mid September and that is to sell into exhausted intraday rallies, take partial profits on significant retrace, and let the rest ride with a stop loss at break even. It's worked extremely well for me despite the fact that the market has gone absolutely nowhere in the last six weeks. Since 15th September, I have opened and closed many short positions as well as a few intraday longs for anywhere between 10 and 200 pips profit at a time. I also still have some of those short positions running from 1.3133, 1.3078, 1.3005, 1.2989 and 1.2982 (give or take a couple of pipettes).
Today I am directionless. All I anticipate is major volatility with whipsaw action in both directions. Most likely the US markets will start off with a rally, but then end with a rout with the SP500 taking a dip into the mid to high 13xx zone driving the USD higher and more than likely, the Euro lower. As such, I may just sit on my hands until I see an opportunity to set up yet another short position on the E/U pair should price decide to rally into exhaustive highs for the day. Otherwise, I'm quite happy with my current short positions.
Best of luck today and remember that leverage kills.
Pete Jackson's Order Board:
EUR/USD: Offers 1.2980 up to 1.3010, expected buy stops just above through 1.3015. Bids 1.2920/30 sell stops below ahead of larger bids 1.2880/00 (sovereigns) sell stops through 1.2875
Today's Euro FX Option Expiries at 14:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.2870, 1.2875, 1.2900, 1.2910, 1.2940, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050
E/U H1:
E/U Weekly:
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #59,546
- Oct 31, 2012 2:47am Oct 31, 2012 2:47am
- Joined Sep 2012 | Status: classic Arts | 1,043 Posts
No blips over-nite..
Sold here @ 1.6078 & 1.2963 with same stops as above..
Looking for all pairs to resume the month end merry go south race..
may be into the waiting arms of the "Ghost Busters" lurking below.. Happy "Trick or Treat" night..
Attachment
stop 20 pip
- #59,547
- Oct 31, 2012 2:51am Oct 31, 2012 2:51am
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2012 | 3,285 Posts
Add shorts 1.6082 & 1.2963..
stop 20 pip
PT, great morning update as usual
Looks like GBP/USD getting ready for a major move.
- #59,548
- Oct 31, 2012 2:53am Oct 31, 2012 2:53am
I just trade Forex, but take info about whats going on on equities, bonds and commodities. I take equal amount of time for analyzing each one. 1-3 hours total ALWAYS at night.
This is "The intermarket trading Book"
http://en.bookfi.org/book/621645
This book will give you more knowledge than you could ever imagine. Is one of my favs. (also talks about the oil relationship)
Oke Thank you very much i'll read this this week
- #59,549
- Oct 31, 2012 2:54am Oct 31, 2012 2:54am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good Morning fellow traders!
PT, great morning update as usual
Looks like GBP/USD getting ready for a major move.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #59,550
- Oct 31, 2012 2:56am Oct 31, 2012 2:56am
- Joined Sep 2012 | Status: classic Arts | 1,043 Posts
Good Morning fellow traders!
PT, great morning update as usual
Looks like GBP/USD getting ready for a major move.
up or down?
- #59,552
- Oct 31, 2012 3:07am Oct 31, 2012 3:07am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #59,553
- Oct 31, 2012 3:11am Oct 31, 2012 3:11am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Not liking this move, this is fake.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #59,554
- Oct 31, 2012 3:14am Oct 31, 2012 3:14am
- Joined Sep 2012 | Status: classic Arts | 1,043 Posts
Add shorts 1.6082 & 1.2963..
stop 20 pip
short again at exhaustion..
- #59,555
- Oct 31, 2012 3:15am Oct 31, 2012 3:15am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
More importantly, whether fake or not, it is not following any technical logic. Today is about mayhem, not value... emotions, not logic... Be careful
- #59,556
- Oct 31, 2012 3:19am Oct 31, 2012 3:19am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #59,557
- Oct 31, 2012 3:20am Oct 31, 2012 3:20am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
closed all shorts.. H'issed against the s/t bull winds here..
short again at exhaustion..
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #59,558
- Oct 31, 2012 3:21am Oct 31, 2012 3:21am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #59,559
- Oct 31, 2012 3:27am Oct 31, 2012 3:27am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #59,560
- Oct 31, 2012 3:31am Oct 31, 2012 3:31am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
I didn't mean it would end this morning... but perhaps in the NY session... or close to the end anyway. We'll see. Regardless, even if we get a week of bullish action in Europe, that just makes short opportunities that much more attractive.
Monthly avg. is below 1.3000 so targetting closing my (1+1) positions next month with some handsome profit.