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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,861
  • Oct 30, 2012 1:11am Oct 30, 2012 1:11am
Quoting Olu
BOJ dissapointed. Didnt inject enough. usdjpy has sold off...

Olu
When was the last time they FAILED to disappoint?
  • #31,862
  • Oct 30, 2012 1:30am Oct 30, 2012 1:30am
Are you sure it was sell-off instead of big buyers for long-term at lower price?
  • #31,863
  • Oct 30, 2012 1:41am Oct 30, 2012 1:41am
Quoting Immortal_Sh
yeah , wait and see whats will happen .. in box 80.04 - 80.17 i wait for sell
S&H and diamond completed and fall
i think now is near end of wave 4 and again raise up for High 80.38 .....
good luck
  • #31,864
  • Oct 30, 2012 1:48am Oct 30, 2012 1:48am
Quoting Ken A
Are you sure it was sell-off instead of big buyers for long-term at lower price?

you have a point the big boys could be toying around again trying to get better fills. Whether we like it or not 11b y has been injected into the markets.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #31,865
  • Oct 30, 2012 2:21am Oct 30, 2012 2:21am
Quoting Olu
you have a point the big boys could be toying around again trying to get better fills. Whether we like it or not 11b y has been injected into the markets.
That's the words I heard big buyers for long-term around 78.5-79.xx.
  • #31,866
  • Oct 30, 2012 2:22am Oct 30, 2012 2:22am
Quoting Immortal_Sh
S&H and diamond completed and fall
i think now is near end of wave 4 and again raise up for High 80.38 .....
good luck
The diamond would still appear to be progressing. I suspect it is only half way through its sequence and we haven't seen the bottom yet.

This pattern is reasonably common on GU, but I haven't seen it on a Yen pair before. On GU, it can take 1~2 weeks to play out, depending on its size.

The same pattern exists on GJ.
  • #31,867
  • Oct 30, 2012 3:02am Oct 30, 2012 3:02am
Quoting Olu
you have a point the big boys could be toying around again trying to get better fills. Whether we like it or not 11b y has been injected into the markets.
Yes. 11 Tr yen= 135 Billion USD. It is a big amount With the september 10 Trillion it is more 250 billion USD. Almost half of QE2 in the USA (it was 600 Billion USD)

I think it is a matter of time when will the yen weaken.

Today, and tomorrow year end, so there will be a pressuare on the U/J.

Last october 31 was a big spike by the BOJ, which helped the Japanese company to close the year with better result.
  • #31,868
  • Oct 30, 2012 3:04am Oct 30, 2012 3:04am
Quoting Mpt
The diamond would still appear to be progressing. I suspect it is only half way through its sequence and we haven't seen the bottom yet.

This pattern is reasonably common on GU, but I haven't seen it on a Yen pair before. On GU, it can take 1~2 weeks to play out, depending on its size.

The same pattern exists on GJ.
i agree with you . i see the bottom for UJ around 79.15---79.23 .
about GU i think is ready to a raise up for wave -1 or a- of (1) or b of 2 -
in long term i see it around 1.6500
today i think it reach 1.6110
  • #31,869
  • Oct 30, 2012 3:30am Oct 30, 2012 3:30am
Quoting Immortal_Sh
i agree with you . i see the bottom for UJ around 79.15---79.23 .
about GU i think is ready to a raise up for wave -1 or a- of (1) or b of 2 -
in long term i see it around 1.6500
today i think it reach 1.6110
maybe ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyx2.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #31,870
  • Oct 30, 2012 3:32am Oct 30, 2012 3:32am
I think we are ripe for a drop to the 78.50 area today.
  • #31,871
  • Oct 30, 2012 3:38am Oct 30, 2012 3:38am
Quoting Immortal_Sh
i agree with you . i see the bottom for UJ around 79.15---79.23 .
about GU i think is ready to a raise up for wave -1 or a- of (1) or b of 2 -
in long term i see it around 1.6500
today i think it reach 1.6110

Sorry for the delay. Was outside having a wine. It's evening here. If the diamond continues, I also see bottom around 78.9.

GU .... could be going into wave 2. Or maybe wave 4 completing. GU is hard to work out. If you "believe" it's in a downtrend, then wave 2 works for you. If you think it's in an uptrend, then wave 4 works. I personally think it will retrace back down to the 1.53 area.

On another note, a diamond usually indicates a reversal. Sometimes it fails in that regard and ends up as an elaborate wave 4. So, just as per a triangle, it all depends where it breaks out.

This has nothing to do with USDJPY. Sorry for going off topic.
  • #31,872
  • Oct 30, 2012 3:49am Oct 30, 2012 3:49am
Quoting Mpt
Sorry for the delay. Was outside having a wine. It's evening here. If the diamond continues, I also see bottom around 78.9.

GU .... could be going into wave 2. Or maybe wave 4 completing. GU is hard to work out. If you "believe" it's in a downtrend, then wave 2 works for you. If you think it's in an uptrend, then wave 4 works. I personally think it will retrace back down to the 1.53 area.

On another note, a diamond usually indicates a reversal. Sometimes it fails in that regard and ends up as an elaborate wave 4. So, just as per a...
thanks for share your analysis .
true .. if UJ stay under 79.15 it's will fail my analysis and maybe continue to complete diamond . i understand your analysis about GU 2 week ago i was bearish but seems some waves changed ، however low 1.5910 is important if it's break i will be bearish on it .
thank you .
  • #31,873
  • Oct 30, 2012 4:57am Oct 30, 2012 4:57am
Here is my chart about UsdJpy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy1.gif Size: 14 KB


IF it is a downtrend, then the next targets are 79.21, 78.88, 77.92
Let me know what I need to watch for so as not to take bad trades.
  • #31,874
  • Oct 30, 2012 5:01am Oct 30, 2012 5:01am
I thought down yesterday after the channel was broken. That subsequent spike and red pinbar looks like a take out of stops then the down continues.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy2.PNG Size: 99 KB
  • #31,875
  • Oct 30, 2012 5:07am Oct 30, 2012 5:07am
Quoting RunAndGunFX
Could it be a Falling Three Method on 4 hr. chart? Bearish?
More bearish action.. We will go down more...
  • #31,876
  • Oct 30, 2012 5:19am Oct 30, 2012 5:19am
Quoting Euroscum
I thought down yesterday after the channel was broken. That subsequent spike and red pinbar looks like a take out of stops then the down continues.
Specially on your chart there is a head&Shoulder.
So now the key would be really to hold on the short ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.PNG Size: 93 KB


A question : how does one add a statement at the bottom of one's posts?
  • #31,877
  • Oct 30, 2012 5:25am Oct 30, 2012 5:25am
I very much commend the flow of information now on this thread. I had protested about the 'up/down' arguments and the the never ending emphasis on "intervention". As to whether the recent projections are correct or not ......... at least there is a tad more logic being applied here. And that's what it's all about.
  • #31,878
  • Oct 30, 2012 5:50am Oct 30, 2012 5:50am
Quoting Mpt
I very much commend the flow of information now on this thread. I had protested about the 'up/down' arguments and the the never ending emphasis on "intervention". As to whether the recent projections are correct or not ......... at least there is a tad more logic being applied here. And that's what it's all about.
This thread is actually very good : I am going through it and really learning a lot.
Now, should we expect a BOJ intervention? IF this does happen, how will we find out about it BEFOREHAND or at least be alerted ?
  • #31,879
  • Edited 6:42am Oct 30, 2012 6:26am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting crustonSt
This thread is actually very good : I am going through it and really learning a lot.
Now, should we expect a BOJ intervention? IF this does happen, how will we find out about it BEFOREHAND or at least be alerted ?
BOJ spent loads of money performing interventions when price went below/stayed below certain thresholds. Don't forget that the Yen is a floating currency. That means that the market will take it where it wants to to go. When USDJPY et al have reached their market bottom, they will move back up. Vigorously. Until then, I would view the occasional intervention as a "plus"".

When was the last obvious full scale intervention?????????

A year ago tomorrow!!!
  • #31,880
  • Oct 30, 2012 6:32am Oct 30, 2012 6:32am
a year ago!!! Need to check the news last year then.
This trading is really an intellectual challenge.
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