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  • #711,901
  • Oct 27, 2012 10:20pm Oct 27, 2012 10:20pm
Quoting John Gray
What about this H1 scenario?
mathematically it is possible

1.2996 would be at sigma one

and 1.2883 would be negative sigma one
1.2826 is negative sigma two

so possible.

but then again there is a possibility that we are finding the floor here

rejection from 1.3020 went as low as 1.2881 then back again to close at 1.2939 see how it keeps hovering there at 1.2940 could mean support.

having 4 trading days left in the month It is feasible to expect
1.3050 on the up side and/or 1.2820 on the down side.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #711,902
  • Oct 27, 2012 10:44pm Oct 27, 2012 10:44pm
Quoting tirmizi
oh ic good ellittician guy...


to me the bigger picture show me the bigger V being ET.

lower supp line comes approx at 2870/72

i have seen earlier many traders taking 2991 as the wave2 as bulls breaking neck, but the prob to me is the high printed 3139 was not wave 3 because it never even touched the 150%,

be care full B E A R S
Looking your chart for me 1,3170 finished a cycle. So no 4 for me. This is new cycle imo two scenarios go to 1,348 then below 1,20 or just below 1,20
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #711,903
  • Oct 27, 2012 10:49pm Oct 27, 2012 10:49pm
I don't know how people set targets here in FF...mostly I think people look at a chart, a trend line, a moving average, or s/r level and think that price necessarily needs to reach "their goal".

in reality I think (not trying to be condescending as I do not claim to be better than any one here in the forum) that one needs to take into account what is mathematically possible for the particular holding time.....according to what can be statistically proven.

I am not sure how familiar people are with the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model....but It is very useful.

I take the concept of the Theta and apply it to the targets I can expect to gain.

for the past year the volatility has been .44%...historically .66% I am taking the most recent reading as the volatility seems to actually match the .44% as the market is not moving 120 pips on average as of lately.

so by months end there are 4 trading days left so that is .44%*sqrt(4) = .87%.
if you take excel or R and come up with a random variable of a normal distribution with mean of 0 and standard deviation of .88% then you multiply that by the current price you get the random normal distribution % in pips...now add that to the price and you get the expected price.

run this simulation 1000 times and you get a pretty good idea of what targets are possible.

anyway just sharing with whoever is interested in having objective, probabilities.

as you can see the more you are into the month the more time decay is there in the volatility of the security.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #711,904
  • Oct 27, 2012 10:51pm Oct 27, 2012 10:51pm
Just a quick outlook on the Kiwi Dollar.

Expect either a downwards turn and a continuation of the downwards channel if there is a break of the 38.2 fibonacci support around 0.819.

Or could also expect the previous high of 0.835 if there is a break of 0.825, the 23.6 fibonacci resistance.


John
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #711,905
  • Oct 27, 2012 10:55pm Oct 27, 2012 10:55pm
Quoting John Gray
Just a quick outlook on the Kiwi Dollar.

Expect either a downwards turn and a continuation of the downwards channel if there is a break of the 38.2 fibonacci support around 0.819.

Or could also expect the previous high of 0.835 if there is a break of 0.825, the 23.6 fibonacci resistance.


John
Here is the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD downward channel.PNG Size: 55 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #711,906
  • Oct 27, 2012 11:10pm Oct 27, 2012 11:10pm
Nice post and I like it's value to FF. Hopefully traders will check it out for improve their trading.

Cheers


Quoting the redlion
I don't know how people set targets here in FF...mostly I think people look at a chart, a trend line, a moving average, or s/r level and think that price necessarily needs to reach "their goal".

in reality I think (not trying to be condescending as I do not claim to be better than any one here in the forum) that one needs to take into account what is mathematically possible for the particular holding time.....according to what can be statistically proven.

I am not sure how familiar people are with the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model....but...
  • #711,907
  • Oct 27, 2012 11:27pm Oct 27, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting the redlion
I don't know how people set targets here in FF...mostly I think people look at a chart, a trend line, a moving average, or s/r level and think that price necessarily needs to reach "their goal".

in reality I think (not trying to be condescending as I do not claim to be better than any one here in the forum) that one needs to take into account what is mathematically possible for the particular holding time.....according to what can be statistically proven.

I am not sure how familiar people are with the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing...
Really you dont need to know how people here set targets, they have their reasons wrong or right who cares, you should concentrate in your trades and try to learn something from someone else
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #711,908
  • Oct 27, 2012 11:36pm Oct 27, 2012 11:36pm
can I get a Howdy?
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #711,909
  • Oct 27, 2012 11:43pm Oct 27, 2012 11:43pm
Quoting John Gray
What about this H1 scenario?
very possible but we will only know after the open. there's a hurricane floating around that might influence the markets but it just might be a non-event. But if they shut down New York lol it could cause a gloomy market. I was actually in Katrina and was of the 1st responders (brought supplies to the international airport in an 18wheeler from Jacksonville military base to New Orleans - was on standby before the storm hit in Alabama - some remote airfield and when it hit was dispatched to "ground zero" where the hurricane hit and supplies were needed the most). I worked for FEMA back then under executive order of the president. It was a major catastrophe and took the city many months to get on track - I was personally there for around 2 months. Of course that was a much larger storm but these old cities aren't ready for such events and even a small storm can disrupt the city for a week or 2. I know because I was in at least over a half-dozen such events and I can tell you there are people on standby for the worst.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #711,910
  • Oct 27, 2012 11:54pm Oct 27, 2012 11:54pm
Hurricane Sandy may force evacuations in NYC

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg was expected to decide as early as Saturday whether to order evacuation of 375,000 residents from low-lying areas of the city’s five boroughs, according to media reports, as the monster Hurricane Sandy continued moving north along the Eastern Seaboard.



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fra...dge-2012-10-26
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #711,911
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:02am Oct 28, 2012 12:02am
Target is just a by-product of your analytic.. directional Bias is where the bread is..
Making money is all about trading with the Bias +MM.. there's no need to over-complicate things & worry over targets..
  • #711,912
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:09am Oct 28, 2012 12:09am
Buyers just ahead of sellers in the monthly bar but overall the volume is still down. Price action does look like it wants to pounce higher but you can just never tell until it happens .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: picture.png Size: 30 KB
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #711,913
  • Oct 28, 2012 12:20am Oct 28, 2012 12:20am
and here's another look at the monthly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: picture.png Size: 54 KB
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #711,914
  • Oct 28, 2012 1:52am Oct 28, 2012 1:52am
Quoting xandi
Itīs allowed beer on Pakistan? if not, you have to pass here in Portugal to payback your bet!!
Never mind, they are planning to stop by in Portugal with few kegs

http://www.murreebrewery.com
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #711,915
  • Oct 28, 2012 3:09am Oct 28, 2012 3:09am
Tsunami warning for Hawaii....wondering how this will effect :
Eur/usd? or eur/jpy?
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!!!
  • #711,916
  • Oct 28, 2012 5:33am Oct 28, 2012 5:33am
Quoting adrian1v2000
Tsunami warning for Hawaii....wondering how this will effect :
Eur/usd? or eur/jpy?

PA will dictate. Always trade what you see not what you think.
Good luck to all in this new week.
forexpillariscipline & patience Trader
  • #711,917
  • Oct 28, 2012 6:24am Oct 28, 2012 6:24am
Quoting the redlion
I don't know how people set targets here in FF...mostly I think people look at a chart, a trend line, a moving average, or s/r level and think that price necessarily needs to reach "their goal".

in reality I think (not trying to be condescending as I do not claim to be better than any one here in the forum) that one needs to take into account what is mathematically possible for the particular holding time.....according to what can be statistically proven.

I am not sure how familiar people are with the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model....but...
Very helpfull post,i use a calculation of which is proving to give me realistic targets should the other factors also remain in my favour,infact there proving to be very much on the money !not the black scholes formula ,but obviously giving similar results.

its well worth some research,....
  • #711,918
  • Oct 28, 2012 9:10am Oct 28, 2012 9:10am
EURUSD is currently resisted by another super long term trendline on the daily. Point 3 of the falling channel was touched last week.

http://i46.tinypic.com/30ni4ut.png

Will EURUSD break above this down trendline? To answer that, lets take a closer look. Lets see the price action on the 4hr chart. There are 2 possible ways to analyze the 4hr chart.

For the bullish traders, EURUSD is in a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are usually continuation patterns. Since the trend is up, the bullish traders will want to try bring EURUSD above and outside triangle. Thereby causing the bullish trend to continue.

http://i50.tinypic.com/2ly0c46.png

For the bearish traders, they will try to cause a double top pattern to invalidate the triangle pattern. Since double tops are key reversal patterns, EURUSD should drop like a rock.

http://i46.tinypic.com/69ndyf.png

My personal preference is to trade the triangle continuation pattern. I am of the bullish side. I think the temptation is there for Spain to take the easy way out. Politicians are not known for their long-sightedness.
  • #711,919
  • Oct 28, 2012 9:36am Oct 28, 2012 9:36am
Quoting ForexMGames
EURUSD is currently resisted by another super long term trendline on the daily. Point 3 of the falling channel was touched last week.

http://i46.tinypic.com/30ni4ut.png

Will EURUSD break above this down trendline? To answer that, lets take a closer look. Lets see the price action on the 4hr chart. There are 2 possible ways to analyze the 4hr chart.

For the bullish traders, EURUSD is in a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are usually continuation patterns. Since the trend is up, the bullish traders will want to try bring...
my man u'r correct. but the bull is not that kind strong. i close my short position on friday due to the symmetrical triangle. am aside now untill i see a clear entering setup.
forexpillariscipline & patience Trader
  • #711,920
  • Oct 28, 2012 9:51am Oct 28, 2012 9:51am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 109 KB

maybe it test 1.3030 and then 1.3180 in long term .
A clear break of 1.2883 will damage this expected and is bearish to 1.2770 .
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