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EURUSD

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#711,881
Oct 26, 2012 2:29pm Oct 26, 2012 2:29pm

tirmizi
| Additional Username | Joined Sep 2012 | 914 Posts

Quoting Luis Carlos

Disliked

after 1,2778

Ignored

could be...

if short then my advice is reverse it to long, if you get lucky to long near 2920

if you dont want it to reverse to long then stop should be just above 2955 todday's high,

this is my very calculated guess

GL

wish you a lot of green pips

Learning Requires Failure

#711,882
Oct 26, 2012 2:34pm Oct 26, 2012 2:34pm

Luis Carlos
| Commercial User | Joined Jun 2009 | 5,468 Posts

Quoting tirmizi

Disliked

could be...

if short then my advice is reverse it to long, if you get lucky to long near 2920

if you dont want it to reverse to long then stop should be just above 2955 todday's high,

this is my very calculated guess

GL

wish you a lot of green pips

Ignored

Exactly 2955 is the stop, here my analysis..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...65#post6137165

Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi

#711,883
Oct 26, 2012 2:53pm Oct 26, 2012 2:53pm

mercy seat
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts

Quoting mercy seat

Disliked

Oct 25, 2012 23:32 (10 hr ago)

Quick survey for the EUR/USD based on latest rollover-reopen ...

2012-10-25_23h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-43 # FF51 (EN 24-hour)

Outlook with latest 24-hours comment from Thursday ...

[url="http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1066239&stc=1&d=1351236145"][color=#22229c]2012-10-26_00h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-43 # FF51...

Ignored

RECAP:

Oct 25, 2012 23:32 (22 hr ago)

Quick survey for the EUR/USD based on latest rollover-reopen ...

2012-10-25_23h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-43 # FF51 (EN 24-hour)

Outlook with latest 24-hours comment from Thursday ...

2012-10-26_00h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-43 # FF51 (EN 24-hour)

2012-10-26_17h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rolling _ W-43 # FF51 (EN 24-hour)

2012-10-26_20h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rolling _ W-43 # FF51 (EN 24-hour)

Outlook with latest 24-hours comment for Friday ...

RECAP of our OUTLOOK:

This was our anticipation for the trading sessions ahead ... while prices were at aprox. 1.2939 at that time ...

"Additional Explanation"

Reason:

Set for another move down to below 1.2933 or to below 1.2903 at first ...

Major support at around 1.2883 might be re-tested as well ...

If mkt reverses there then we might see another upmove ...

Resistances at around 1.2961 - 1.2990 then ...

Neutral position trade bias (+3) again ...

Elliottwise down from last turning point 1.3023 corection down 1.2903 or elongated flat correction down 1.2857 ...

First down - then up again ...

Daily directional stop (End of day) at 1.2906 limit ...

;-|

2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts

#711,884
Oct 26, 2012 3:15pm Oct 26, 2012 3:15pm

tirmizi
| Additional Username | Joined Sep 2012 | 914 Posts

Quoting Luis Carlos

Disliked

Exactly 2955 is the stop, here my analysis..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...65#post6137165

Ignored

oh ic good ellittician guy...

to me the bigger picture show me the bigger V being ET.

lower supp line comes approx at 2870/72

i have seen earlier many traders taking 2991 as the wave2 as bulls breaking neck, but the prob to me is the high printed 3139 was not wave 3 because it never even touched the 150%,

be care full B E A R S

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Learning Requires Failure

#711,885
Oct 26, 2012 4:16pm Oct 26, 2012 4:16pm

Vachus
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2012 | 4,197 Posts

I would really love to see someone shorting next week ...

"It's the Margin, Stupid."

#711,886
Oct 26, 2012 11:41pm Oct 26, 2012 11:41pm

HiddenGap
Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts

Quoting Vachus

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I would really love to see someone shorting next week ...

Ignored

I assume you are talking from a "daily" perspective. I don't trade the daily but if I did, you would possibly see me shorting next week.

Here's why:

Take a look at the chart below.

We had a the start of the distribution phase in the form of a wide spread up bar on Ultra High Volume that closed off its high with the next bar down. If this bar was buying, then how could the next bar be down? Note I drew a line from the close of this bar (more on this later).

After the supply entered on the Climatic Action interval, price fell. Price then attempted to move higher, and then we get a narrow range up bar that closes in the middle with volume less than the previous two intervals. This is No Demand.

Price makes another attempt to trade higher. Price moves up to the black line, but does not close above it. The interval that gets up there is a narrow range up bar on increasing volume. This is a squat. This is telling us that something is capping the market-Supply.

Three intervals later, we get another No Demand. This was followed by an UpThrust that appeared below the balance point line.

This market is weak.

IF price moves down and then attempts to move up on No Demand, that would be a high probability short trade. Ideally this would happen below the BPL and while the BPL is red.

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.

#711,887
Oct 27, 2012 2:07am Oct 27, 2012 2:07am

eka_linux
| Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Trader | 4 Posts

if not break 1.2968 then going back down towards 1.2881 until 1.2848 intraday bias to bearish ,but if break 1.2968 it will continue towards 1.2991 until 1.3021,intraday bias to bullish ( further penetration aware it will likely move further ).

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#711,888
Oct 27, 2012 2:21am Oct 27, 2012 2:21am

wiseambition
| Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 684 Posts

Quoting HiddenGap

Disliked

I assume you are talking from a "daily" perspective. I don't trade the daily but if I did, you would possibly see me shorting next week.

Here's why:

Take a look at the chart below.

We had a the start of the distribution phase in the form of a wide spread up bar on Ultra High Volume that closed off its high with the next bar down. If this bar was buying, then how could the next bar be down? Note I drew a line from the close of this bar (more on this later).

After the supply entered on the Climatic Action interval, price fell. Price then...

Ignored

Thank you for this very enlightening perspective on the dynamics of this market.

#711,889
Oct 27, 2012 4:46am Oct 27, 2012 4:46am

Vachus
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2012 | 4,197 Posts

Quoting HiddenGap

Disliked

This market is weak.

Ignored

I would call it " Uncertain " , but thanks for sharing your analyses and let me share mine , just to see how i view it :

(1)- 2nd Week of September : Price Shoot from 1.27550 to 1.31700 in four Daily consecutive bars. ( This out Burst i interpreted it based on Good Opium , with the German court verdict on ESM - which is a key fundamental for Euro ). So, i expected at the time that the rapid movement and the speed it happened into - they won't find buyers at these levels to hold the highs.

(2)- 3rd & 4th week of September till End of October : L= 1.2825X , H= Below Septmber high and nothing significant. this was a confirmation to me - that it was just an out burst. So , at this point price has high probability to reach 1.25X/1.26X area before taking out the high.. right ?! I used to think like that, However, what i missed seeing is ( The amount of time it took to reach ). On the chart , 4 days were needed to reach 1.31700 - but 11 days to go back to open of the lowest candle. ( Almost 3 times the amount needed )

That means : Buyers maybe not interested or hesitated to higher levels , but so is sellers too. Which give us " Uncertainty ".

(3)- 1st & 2nd week of October : L = 1.28 , H= 1.307X Price retraced up for profit taking reasons or waiting to short from above , or what ever reasons it maybe be. The Balance of time was really surprising , It took the bulls 2 and 2 daily bars to reach this high , with the exception of one Bearish small candle. The next week , the bearish control and drive prices down in 3 consecutive candles ... But the two weeks collectively give you 6 Bulls candles VS 4 Bears. ( So, now we can say Ceteris paribus of course , bears are getting advantage on Bulls. They defended higher levels and got a slight equal footage on time )

(4) 3rd and 4th Week of October : H=1.31400 , L = 1.28X. The bulls in 2 daily Bars mark the high of two weeks ahead , and the bears take 6 daily bars to reach the low of this two weeks. Which i think mean : That some of the sellers force has either sidelined or converted collar.

Therefore , Giving the amount of time Bulls has shown in two month range almost 50% less - i reach a conclusion that either we are in Bulls market waiting for confirmation and showed its strength / or a neutral one - but not a bearish market definitely. Also, it will take Bulls less time to reach a higher price vs Bears to drive lower ones.

This is my personal opinion and i trade based on it.

*Please ignore the buy line- i use MT5 for anaylze and its a demo account

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"It's the Margin, Stupid."

#711,890
Oct 27, 2012 7:29am Oct 27, 2012 7:29am

pkimnyc
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Sniper | 14,770 Posts

Quoting HiddenGap

Disliked

I assume you are talking from a "daily" perspective. I don't trade the daily but if I did, you would possibly see me shorting next week.

Here's why:

Take a look at the chart below.

We had a the start of the distribution phase in the form of a wide spread up bar on Ultra High Volume that closed off its high with the next bar down. If this bar was buying, then how could the next bar be down? Note I drew a line from the close of this bar (more on this later).

After the supply entered on the Climatic Action interval, price fell. Price...

Ignored

Awesome analysis. Thanks.

#711,891
Oct 27, 2012 11:26am Oct 27, 2012 11:26am

Sti
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 603 Posts

we found resistance on the last hair, but the result is inevitable imho

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#711,892
Oct 27, 2012 11:50am Oct 27, 2012 11:50am

ForExtraPips
Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Minor crosses. Major pips. | 3,701 Posts

Quoting Sti

Disliked

we found resistance on the last hair, but the result is inevitable imho

Ignored

LOL! Chart Simpson.

Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann

#711,893
Oct 27, 2012 4:00pm Oct 27, 2012 4:00pm

attila
| Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2009 | 16,693 Posts

I have a question about the first ND bar.. Why did it then move up making a HH up to the black line (sqt)? Wouldn't that invalidate the first ND bar?

Quoting HiddenGap

Disliked

I assume you are talking from a "daily" perspective. I don't trade the daily but if I did, you would possibly see me shorting next week.

Here's why:

Take a look at the chart below.

We had a the start of the distribution phase in the form of a wide spread up bar on Ultra High Volume that closed off its high with the next bar down. If this bar was buying, then how could the next bar be down? Note I drew a line from the close of this bar (more on this later).

After the supply entered on the Climatic Action interval, price fell. Price then...

Ignored

#711,894
Oct 27, 2012 4:03pm Oct 27, 2012 4:03pm